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Data Revisions and the Output Gap

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  • Juan Manuel Julio

Abstract

Preliminary and delayed Colombian GDP reports are replaced with optimal in-sample now-casts of true" GDP figures derived from a model for data revisions. The new GDP time series is augmented with optimal out-of-sample forecasts and back-casts of the "true" GDP figures derived from the same model. The trend-cycle component of the augmented GDP series is filtered. The resulting gap is more resistant than the ordinary HP filter to the end of sample optimal filtering problem as well as to GDP revisions and delays. The short term noise of the final output gap estimate is also reduced. Adjusting for data revisions and delays reduce the uncertainty of estimated gaps. The extended and further extended HP estimates of the output gap show an impressive efficiency gain with respect to the ordinary HP gap, 43% and 47% respectively, on average. The new extension increases the efficiency in 7.4%, on average, with respect to extended HP estimates. These results constitute a benchmark to future work on real time estimation of the output gap under GDP revisions and delays in Colombia."

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Manuel Julio, 2011. "Data Revisions and the Output Gap," Borradores de Economia 7956, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:007956
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Juan Manuel Julio Román, 2011. "Modeling Data Revisions," Borradores de Economia 7929, Banco de la Republica.
    2. S. Borağan Aruoba, 2008. "Data Revisions Are Not Well Behaved," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2‐3), pages 319-340, March.
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    7. Aastveit, Knut Are & Trovik, Tørres, 2014. "Estimating the output gap in real time: A factor model approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 180-193.
    8. Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & van Norden, Simon, 2011. "Modeling data revisions: Measurement error and dynamics of "true" values," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 101-109, April.
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    10. Mise, Emi & Kim, Tae-Hwan & Newbold, Paul, 2005. "On suboptimality of the Hodrick-Prescott filter at time series endpoints," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 53-67, March.
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    12. Alejandro López & Carolina Gómez & Norberto Rodríguez, 1996. "La Caida de la Tasa de Ahorro en Colombia Durante los Años Noventa: Evidencia a Partir de una Base de Datos para el Período 1950-1993," Borradores de Economia 057, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
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    Cited by:

    1. Amador-Torres, J. Sebastián, 2017. "Finance-neutral potential output: An evaluation in an emerging market monetary policy context," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 389-407.
    2. Julio Roman, Juan Manuel, 2011. "The Hodrick-Prescott filter with priors: linear restrictions on HP filters," MPRA Paper 34202, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Data Revisions; Now-casting; Real Time Economic Analysis.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access

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