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Survey-Based Structural Budget Balances

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  • Marcell Göttert
  • Timo Wollmershäuser

Abstract

The budget dispute between Italy and the European Commission in 2018 gave new impetus for the debate about the reliability of output gap estimation methods and their use for calculating structural budget balances. In this paper we review the main properties of the mainstream approaches and compare their performance with structural budget balances, whose calculation is based on a business survey. Our main result is that while the survey-based measure is highly correlated with the existing structural budget balances which are calculated based on some estimates of the output gap, it is significantly less revised over time and almost unbiased. Moreover, the survey-based measure could be easily implemented into the existing EU fiscal rules without any major changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcell Göttert & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2021. "Survey-Based Structural Budget Balances," CESifo Working Paper Series 8911, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8911
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Hoffmann, Timo, 2023. "Vorschläge zur Modifikation der Potenzialschätzung der Bundesregierung im Vergleich," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 45, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Stechert, Marcel, 2021. "Household saving and fiscal policy: evidence for the euro area from a thick modelling perspective," Working Paper Series 2633, European Central Bank.
    3. Feld Lars P. & Nöh Lukas & Reuter Wolf Heinrich & Yeter Mustafa, 2021. "Von der Corona-bedingten Schuldenaufnahme zur Wiedereinhaltung der Schuldenbremse," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 22(4), pages 330-349, November.
    4. Marcell Göttert & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2022. "Strukturelle Finanzierungssalden auf verlässliche Füße stellen [Putting Structural Budget Balances on Reliable Footing]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(2), pages 108-113, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal rules; cyclical adjustment; output gaps; real time data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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