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On the relationship between world oil prices and GCC stock markets

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  • Mohamed El Hedi Arouri

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Jamel Jouini

    (GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENS LSH - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Duc Khuong Nguyen

    (IPAG Lab - IPAG Lab - IPAG Business School)

Abstract

We provide comprehensive evidence on the relationship between oil prices and stock mar-kets for six GCC countries. Unlike previous contributions, a wide range of modern econo-metric techniques are applied in order to: i) capture both short- and long-term interactions between considered markets; ii) deal with the potential asymmetry in such interactions and iii) control for the effects of relevant global financial variables. Empirical results show strong causal linkages in the short-run with the impact direction running usually from oil to stocks, but no long-run links. Stock returns seem also to be more sensitive to negative than to positive oil shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohamed El Hedi Arouri & Jamel Jouini & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2013. "On the relationship between world oil prices and GCC stock markets," Working Papers hal-00798037, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00798037
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-00798037
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mensi, Walid & Beljid, Makram & Boubaker, Adel & Managi, Shunsuke, 2013. "Correlations and volatility spillovers across commodity and stock markets: Linking energies, food, and gold," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 15-22.
    2. Hussein Alzyoud & Eric Zengxiang Wang & Michael Glenn Basso, 2018. "Dynamics of Canadian Oil Price and its Impact on Exchange Rate and Stock Market," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(3), pages 107-114.
    3. Sabri Boubaker & Zhenya Liu & Yaosong Zhan, 2022. "Risk management for crude oil futures: an optimal stopping-timing approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(1), pages 9-27, June.
    4. Jouini, Jamel, 2013. "Stock markets in GCC countries and global factors: A further investigation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 80-86.
    5. Khalid M. Kisswani & Mohammad I. Elian, 2017. "Exploring the nexus between oil prices and sectoral stock prices: Nonlinear evidence from Kuwait stock exchange," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1286061-128, January.
    6. Shang, Jin & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2021. "Do crude oil prices and the sentiment index influence foreign exchange rates differently in oil-importing and oil-exporting countries? A dynamic connectedness analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    7. Abid, Ilyes & Guesmi, Khaled & Goutte, Stéphane & Urom, Christian & Chevallier, Julien, 2019. "Commodities risk premia and regional integration in gas-exporting countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 267-276.
    8. Le Thi Minh Huong, 2020. "The Role of World Oil Price in the Movements of the Asian Stock Market," International Journal of Innovation and Economic Development, Inovatus Services Ltd., vol. 6(2), pages 7-18, June.
    9. Polanco Martínez, Josué M. & Abadie, Luis M. & Fernández-Macho, J., 2018. "A multi-resolution and multivariate analysis of the dynamic relationships between crude oil and petroleum-product prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 1550-1560.
    10. Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Oliyide, Johnson A., 2021. "How COVID-19 drives connectedness among commodity and financial markets: Evidence from TVP-VAR and causality-in-quantiles techniques," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    11. Ahonen, Elena & Corbet, Shaen & Goodell, John W. & Günay, Samet & Larkin, Charles, 2022. "Are carbon futures prices stable? New evidence during negative oil," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    12. Jouini, Jamel, 2013. "Return and volatility interaction between oil prices and stock markets in Saudi Arabia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1124-1144.
    13. Kaleemuddin, Mohammed & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Does financial development drive economic growth ? an ARDL approach," MPRA Paper 110716, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Wei Qiang & Aimei Lin & Chao Zhao & Zhenhua Liu & Manzhi Liu & Xiaozhen Wang, 2019. "The impact of international crude oil price fluctuation on the exchange rate of petroleum-importing countries: a summary of recent studies," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 95(1), pages 227-239, January.
    15. Khalid M. Kisswani & Mohammad I. Elian, 2017. "Do Oil Prices Affect Kuwait Sectoral Stock Prices? Non-Linear Cointegration Evidence," Working Papers 1141, Economic Research Forum, revised 09 2003.
    16. Jouini, Jamel & Harrathi, Nizar, 2014. "Revisiting the shock and volatility transmissions among GCC stock and oil markets: A further investigation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 486-494.

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