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A powerful portmanteau test of lack of fit for time series

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  • Rodríguez, Julio

Abstract

A new portmanteau test for time series more powerful than the tests ofLjung and Box (1978) and Monti (1994} is proposed. The test is based on the pth root of the determinant of the pth autocorrelation matrix. It is shown that this statistic can be interpreted as the geometric mean of the squared multiple correlation coefficients with m lag values when m goes from 1 to p. It can also be interpreted as a geometric mean of the partial autocorrelation coefficients. The asymptotic distribution of the test statistic is obtained. This distribution is a linear combination of chi-squared distributions and it is shown that it can be approximated by a gamma distribution. The power of the test is compared with that of the Ljung and Box and Monti tests and it is shown that the proposed test can be up to 50% more powerful depending upon the model and sample size. The test is applied to the detection of nonlinearity by using the same matrix but with coefficients that are now the autocorrelations of the squared residuals. The new test is more powerful than the test of McLeod and Li (1983) for nonlinearity. An example is presented in which this test detects nonlinearity in the residuals of the sunpot series.

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  • Rodríguez, Julio, 2000. "A powerful portmanteau test of lack of fit for time series," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 10133, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    • Handle: RePEc:cte:wsrepe:10133
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    1. A. I. McLeod & W. K. Li, 1983. "Diagnostic Checking Arma Time Series Models Using Squared‐Residual Autocorrelations," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(4), pages 269-273, July.
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    3. Ke Zhu, 2016. "Bootstrapping the portmanteau tests in weak auto-regressive moving average models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 78(2), pages 463-485, March.
    4. Carnero, María Ángeles, 2003. "Detecting level shifts in the presence of conditional heteroscedasticity," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws036313, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    5. Lin, Jen-Wen & McLeod, A.Ian, 2006. "Improved Pena-Rodriguez portmanteau test," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 1731-1738, December.
    6. M. Angeles Carnero & Daniel Peña & Esther Ruiz, 2004. "Spurious And Hidden Volatility," Working Papers. Serie AD 2004-45, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    7. Heni Boubaker, 2015. "Wavelet Estimation of Gegenbauer Processes: Simulation and Empirical Application," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 46(4), pages 551-574, December.
    8. Alonso, Andres M. & Maharaj, Elizabeth A., 2006. "Comparison of time series using subsampling," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(10), pages 2589-2599, June.
    9. Rodríguez, Julio, 2003. "A powerful test for conditional heteroscedasticity for financial time series with highly persistent volatilities," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws036716, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    10. Marie-Christine Duker & David S. Matteson & Ruey S. Tsay & Ines Wilms, 2024. "Vector AutoRegressive Moving Average Models: A Review," Papers 2406.19702, arXiv.org.
    11. Axel Bücher & Holger Dette & Florian Heinrichs, 2023. "A portmanteau-type test for detecting serial correlation in locally stationary functional time series," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 255-278, July.
    12. Christian Gourieroux & Joann Jasiak, 2023. "Generalized Covariance Estimator," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(4), pages 1315-1327, October.
    13. Duchesne, Pierre & Lafaye De Micheaux, Pierre, 2010. "Computing the distribution of quadratic forms: Further comparisons between the Liu-Tang-Zhang approximation and exact methods," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 858-862, April.
    14. Serttas, Fatma Ozgu, 2010. "Essays on infinite-variance stable errors and robust estimation procedures," ISU General Staff Papers 201001010800002742, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    15. Bouhaddioui, Chafik & Ghoudi, Kilani, 2012. "Empirical processes for infinite variance autoregressive models," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 319-335.
    16. Kwan, Andy C.C. & Sim, Ah-Boon & Wu, Yangru, 2005. "A comparative study of the finite-sample performance of some portmanteau tests for randomness of a time series," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 391-413, February.
    17. Tucker S. McElroy & Anindya Roy, 2022. "Model identification via total Frobenius norm of multivariate spectra," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 84(2), pages 473-495, April.
    18. Jan Gooijer, 2008. "Partial sums of lagged cross-products of AR residuals and a test for white noise," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 17(3), pages 567-584, November.
    19. Roberto Baragona & Francesco Battaglia & Domenico Cucina, 2022. "Data-driven portmanteau tests for time series," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 31(3), pages 675-698, September.
    20. Fahim Afzal & Pan Haiying & Farman Afzal & Asif Mahmood & Amir Ikram, 2021. "Value-at-Risk Analysis for Measuring Stochastic Volatility of Stock Returns: Using GARCH-Based Dynamic Conditional Correlation Model," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(1), pages 21582440211, March.
    21. Nicolas Pesci & Jean-Philippe Aguilar & Victor James & Fabien Rouillé, 2022. "Inflation Forecasts and European Asset Returns: A Regime-Switching Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-20, October.
    22. Kokoszka, Piotr & Reimherr, Matthew & Wölfing, Nikolas, 2016. "A randomness test for functional panels," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 37-53.

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