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A Coincident Indicator of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Business Cycle

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  • Abdullah Alhassan

Abstract

This paper constructs a coincident indicator for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) area business cycle. The resulting coincident indicator provides a reliable measure of the GCC business cycle; over the last decade, the GCC coincident index and the real GDP growth have moved closely together. Since the indicator is constructed using a small number of common factors, the strong correlation between the indicator and real GDP growth points to a high degree of commonality across GCC economies. The timing and direction of movements in macroeconomic variables are characterized with respect to the coincident indicator. Finally, to obtain a meaningful economic interpretation of the latent factors, their behavior is compared to the observed economic variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdullah Alhassan, 2009. "A Coincident Indicator of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Business Cycle," IMF Working Papers 2009/073, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2009/073
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    Cited by:

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    2. Abdulrazak Al Faris, 2010. "Currency Union in the GCC Countries: History, Prerequisites and Implications," Chapters, in: Ronald MacDonald & Abdulrazak Al Faris (ed.), Currency Union and Exchange Rate Issues, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Takagi, Shinji, 2012. "Establishing Monetary Union in the Gulf Cooperation Council: What Lessons for Regional Cooperation?," ADBI Working Papers 390, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    4. Aloui, Chaker & Hkiri, Besma & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2016. "Real growth co-movements and business cycle synchronization in the GCC countries: Evidence from time-frequency analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 322-331.
    5. Jason Angelopoulos & Costas I. Chlomoudis, 2017. "A Generalized Dynamic Factor Model for the U.S. Port Sector," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 67(1), pages 22-37, January-M.
    6. Rafiq, M.S., 2011. "The optimality of a gulf currency union: Commonalities and idiosyncrasies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 728-740, January.
    7. Rafiq, M.S., 2011. "The optimality of a gulf currency union: Commonalities and idiosyncrasies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 728-740.

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