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Trend estimation of financial time series

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  • Víctor M. Guerrero
  • Adriana Galicia‐Vázquez

Abstract

We propose to decompose a financial time series into trend plus noise by means of the exponential smoothing filter. This filter produces statistically efficient estimates of the trend that can be calculated by a straightforward application of the Kalman filter. It can also be interpreted in the context of penalized least squares as a function of a smoothing constant has to be minimized by trading off fitness against smoothness of the trend. The smoothing constant is crucial to decide the degree of smoothness and the problem is how to choose it objectively. We suggest a procedure that allows the user to decide at the outset the desired percentage of smoothness and derive from it the corresponding value of that constant. A definition of smoothness is first proposed as well as an index of relative precision attributable to the smoothing element of the time series. The procedure is extended to series with different frequencies of observation, so that comparable trends can be obtained for say, daily, weekly or intraday observations of the same variable. The theoretical results are derived from an integrated moving average model of order (1, 1) underlying the statistical interpretation of the filter. Expressions of equivalent smoothing constants are derived for series generated by temporal aggregation or systematic sampling of another series. Hence, comparable trend estimates can be obtained for the same time series with different lengths, for different time series of the same length and for series with different frequencies of observation of the same variable. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Víctor M. Guerrero & Adriana Galicia‐Vázquez, 2010. "Trend estimation of financial time series," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(3), pages 205-223, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:apsmbi:v:26:y:2010:i:3:p:205-223
    DOI: 10.1002/asmb.763
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    References listed on IDEAS

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