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Building Up a Real Sector Business Confidence Index for Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • Ece Oral
  • Dilara Ece
  • Turknur Hamsici

Abstract

The two major aims of this study are, firstly, to receive valuable insight into the Business Tendency Survey of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey and, secondly, to construct a real sector confidence index by using the questions of the Business Tendency Survey. The most important motivation behind constructing a real sector confidence index is to provide an indicator of short-term business conditions for economic policy makers and business managers by examining business managers' views on general business conditions and their future anticipations. The real sector confidence index is constructed in accordance with statistical criteria and economic theory. Afterwards, the performance of the index in tracking the cyclical features of industrial production index is tested.

Suggested Citation

  • Ece Oral & Dilara Ece & Turknur Hamsici, 2005. "Building Up a Real Sector Business Confidence Index for Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 5(1), pages 23-54.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcb:cebare:v:5:y:2005:i:1:p:23-54
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    File URL: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Publications/Central+Bank+Review/2005/Volume+5-1/
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ng, Yew-Kwang, 1992. "Business Confidence and Depression Prevention: A Mesoeconomic Perspective," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 365-371, May.
    2. Víctor Gómez & Agustín Maravall, 1998. "Seasonal Adjustment and Signal Extraction in Economic Time Series," Working Papers 9809, Banco de España.
    3. Giuseppe Parigi & Roberto Golinelli & Giorgio Bodo, 2000. "Forecasting industrial production in the Euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 541-561.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yasemin Barlas Ozer & Defne Mutluer, 2005. "Inflation Expectations in Turkey : Statistical Evidence from the Business Tendency Survey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 5(2), pages 73-97.
    2. Carlos León & Clara Machado & Andrés Murcia, 2013. "Macro-prudential assessment of Colombian financial institutions’ systemic importance," Borradores de Economia 11105, Banco de la Republica.
    3. Sana Souaid Jad, 2011. "The use of surveys to measure sentiment and expected behaviour of key sectors in the economy: evidence from the business survey conducted by the Central Bank of Lebanon," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the IFC Conference on "Initiatives to address data gaps revealed by the financial crisis", Basel, 25-26 August 2010, volume 34, pages 248-277, Bank for International Settlements.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business Tendency Survey; Industrial Production Index; Cross-correlation; Principal Component;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C42 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Survey Methods
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C19 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Other

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