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A composite leading cycle indicator for Uruguay

Author

Listed:
  • Pablo Galaso

    (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economí­a)

  • Sandra Rodriguez

    (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economí­a)

Abstract

This study estimates a composite leading business cycle indicator for the Uruguayan economy following the methodology of The Conference Board. Prediction is based on the analysis of multiple series that have a leading relationship to the Industrial Production Index, which is used as the reference variable of the overall economic activity. Once selected, these series are aggregated into a single composite indicator. Our index covers a 20-year period (from 1994 to 2013). It includes variables covering diverse aspects of economic activity and reaches to advance the two turning points occurred in Uruguay during that period.

Suggested Citation

  • Pablo Galaso & Sandra Rodriguez, 2014. "A composite leading cycle indicator for Uruguay," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 14-09, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    • Handle: RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-09-14
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    File URL: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/4253
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Luis Fernando Melo & Fabio H. Nieto & Carlos Esteban Posada & Yanneth Rocío Betancourt, 2001. "Un Índice Coincidente para la Actividad Económica Colombiana," Borradores de Economia 3678, Banco de la Republica.
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    Cited by:

    1. Moses Tule & Taiwo Ajilore & Godday Ebuh, 2016. "A composite index of leading indicators of unemployment in Nigeria," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 87-105, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    leading indicator; business cycle; turning points; Uruguay;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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