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Statistical estimates of the deviations from the macroeconomic potential. An application to the economy of Bulgaria

Author

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  • Kaloyan Ganev

    (Agency for Economic Analysis and Forecasting)

Abstract

The paper reviews the basic statistical methods for estimation of the deviations from the production potential of the economy. The emphasis is put on the a-theoretical approaches. To illustrate the application of the models data for the Bulgarian economy have been used, and on the basis of the obtained estimates general conclusions on the state and the development of some macroeconomic processes have been made.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaloyan Ganev, 2004. "Statistical estimates of the deviations from the macroeconomic potential. An application to the economy of Bulgaria," Working paper series 12004en, Agency for Economic Analysis and Forecasting.
    • Handle: RePEc:eaf:wpaper:12004en
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1998. "The business cycle: it's still a puzzle," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 22(Q IV), pages 56-83.
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    10. Alain Guay & Pierre Saint-Amant, 2005. "Do the Hodrick-Prescott and Baxter-King Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 77, pages 133-155.
    11. Pierre St-Amant & Simon van Norden, 1997. "Measurement of the Output Gap: A Discussion of Recent Research at the Bank of Canada," Technical Reports 79, Bank of Canada.
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    14. Paul Conway & Ben Hunt, 1997. "Estimating potential output: a semi-structural approach," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G97/9, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ganev, Kaloyan, 2015. "A Small Model for Output Gap and Potential Growth Estimation. An Application to Bulgaria," MPRA Paper 63546, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Dilian Vassilev, 2021. "A Model of Natural Interest Rate: The Case of Bulgaria," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 7, pages 46-72.
    3. Ivan Todorov, 2017. "Bulgaria’s Cyclical Position and Market (Dis)equilibria," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 5, pages 30-64.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    output gap; filters; business cycles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    Statistics

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