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An Application of TRAMO-SEATS: Model Selection and Out-of-Sample Performance: the Swiss CPI Series

Author

Listed:
  • Agustín Maravall

    (Banco de España)

  • Fernando J. Sánchez

    (Banco de España)

Abstract

This paper applies the programs TRAMO and SEATS to seasonal adjustment of the monthly Consumer Price Index Swiss series. It is shown how the results of the purely automatic procedure can be improved with two simple modifications: one that emerges from the TRAMO-SEATS diagnostics, and another that uses "a-priori" information. In particular, the SEATS output is used to select a model among the ones that are equally compatible with the sample.

Suggested Citation

  • Agustín Maravall & Fernando J. Sánchez, 2000. "An Application of TRAMO-SEATS: Model Selection and Out-of-Sample Performance: the Swiss CPI Series," Working Papers 0014, Banco de España.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0014
    as

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    File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/00/Fic/dt0014e.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2000
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arnold Zellner, 1978. "Seasonal Analysis of Economic Time Series," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number zell78-1.
    2. Bell, William R & Hillmer, Steven C, 1984. "Issues Involved with the Seasonal Adjustment of Time Series: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(4), pages 343-349, October.
    3. Bell, William R & Hillmer, Steven C, 1984. "Issues Involved with the Seasonal Adjustment of Economic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(4), pages 291-320, October.
    4. Víctor Gómez & Agustín Maravall, 1998. "Seasonal Adjustment and Signal Extraction in Economic Time Series," Working Papers 9809, Banco de España.
    5. David A. Pierce, 1978. "Seasonal Adjustment When Both Deterministic and Stochastic Seasonality Are Present," NBER Chapters, in: Seasonal Analysis of Economic Time Series, pages 242-280, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Findley, David F, et al, 1998. "New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal-Adjustment Program," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 127-152, April.
    7. David A. Pierce, 1978. "Seasonal adjustment when both deterministic and stochastic seasonality are present," Special Studies Papers 107, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Agustín Maravall, 1996. "Unobserved Components in Economic Time Series," Working Papers 9609, Banco de España.
    9. Maravall, Agustin, 1987. "Minimum Mean Squared Error Estimation of the Noise in Unobserved Component Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(1), pages 115-120, January.
    10. Víctor Gómez & Agustín Maravall, 1998. "Automatic Modeling Methods for Univariate Series," Working Papers 9808, Banco de España.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Oguz Atuk & Beyza Pinar Ural, 2002. "Seasonal Adjustment Methods : An Application to the Turkish Monetary Aggregates," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 2(1), pages 21-37.
    2. Meltem Gulenay Ongan, 2002. "The Seasonal Adjustment of the Consumer and Wholesale Prices : a Comparison of Census X-11, X-12 Arima and Tramo/Seats," Working Papers 0205, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    3. Aslihan Atabek & Oguz Atuk & Evren Erdogan Cosar & Cagri Sarikaya, 2009. "Mevsimsel Modellerde Calisma Gunu Degiskeni," CBT Research Notes in Economics 0903, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    4. Michal Tvrdoň, 2015. "Decomposition of Unemployment: The Case of the Visegrad group countries," Working Papers 0005, Silesian University, School of Business Administration.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    time series; seasonal fluctuations; information;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • C87 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Econometric Software
    • E39 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Other

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