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The term structure as a predictor of real economic activity

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Cited by:

  1. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Interactions between eurozone and US booms and busts: A Bayesian panel Markov-switching VAR model," Working Papers 2013:17, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari", revised 2014.
  2. Hans-Eggert Reimers, 2012. "Early Warning Indicator Model of Financial Developments Using an Ordered Logit," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 2(2), pages 171-191, December.
  3. Hans Dewachter & Leonardo Iania & Marco Lyrio, 2014. "Information In The Yield Curve: A Macro‐Finance Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 42-64, January.
  4. Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2013. "Changes in predictive ability with mixed frequency data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 395-410.
  5. Quentin LAJAUNIE, 2021. "Nonlinear Impulse Response Function for Dichotomous Models," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2852, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
  6. Mehmet Balcilar & Edmond Berisha & Oğuzhan Çepni & Rangan Gupta, 2022. "The predictive power of the term spread on inequality in the United Kingdom: An empirical analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 1979-1988, April.
  7. Evans, Charles L. & Marshall, David A., 2007. "Economic determinants of the nominal treasury yield curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1986-2003, October.
  8. Esther Fernández Galar & Javier Gómez Biscarri, 2003. "Revisiting the Ability of Interest Rate Spreads to Predict Recessions: Evidence for a," Faculty Working Papers 04/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  9. Cyrille Lenoel & Garry Young, 2020. "Real-time turning point indicators: Review of current international practices," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2020-05, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
  10. Jennie Bai & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein & Jean Helwege, 2012. "On bounding credit event risk premia," Staff Reports 577, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  11. Hammami, Yacine & Lindahl, Anna, 2014. "An intertemporal capital asset pricing model with bank credit growth as a state variable," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 14-28.
  12. Eric Hillebrand & Huiyu Huang & Tae-Hwy Lee & Canlin Li, 2018. "Using the Entire Yield Curve in Forecasting Output and Inflation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-27, August.
  13. Gong, Fangxiong & Remolona, Eli M, 1997. "Two Factors along the Yield Curve," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 65(0), pages 1-31, Supplemen.
  14. Johannes A. Skjeltorp & Bernt Arne Ødegaard, 2009. "The information content of market liquidity: An empirical analysis of liquidity at the Oslo Stock Exchange?," Working Paper 2009/26, Norges Bank.
  15. Hasse, Jean-Baptiste & Lajaunie, Quentin, 2022. "Does the yield curve signal recessions? New evidence from an international panel data analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 9-22.
  16. Yunus Aksoy & Henrique S. Basso, 2014. "Liquidity, Term Spreads and Monetary Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(581), pages 1234-1278, December.
  17. Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Asli Yuksel & Aydin Yuksel, 2020. "The US Term Structure and Return Volatility in Global REIT Markets," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 24(3), pages 84-109, September.
  18. van Landschoot, A., 2003. "The Term Structure of Credit Spreads on Euro Corporate Bonds," Discussion Paper 2003-046, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  19. Zhiwei Zhang, 2002. "Corporate Bond Spreads and the Business Cycle," Staff Working Papers 02-15, Bank of Canada.
  20. Patrick Artus & Moncef Kaabi, 1994. "Structure par terme des taux d'intérêt et reprise économique," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 112(1), pages 87-99.
  21. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues, 1998. "Consistent covariance matrix estimation in probit models with autocorrelated errors," Staff Reports 39, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  22. Christos Argyropoulos & Bertrand Candelon & Jean‐Baptiste Hasse & Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2024. "Towards a macroprudential regulatory framework for mutual funds?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 3063-3082, July.
  23. Antunes, António & Bonfim, Diana & Monteiro, Nuno & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M., 2018. "Forecasting banking crises with dynamic panel probit models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 249-275.
  24. Prat, Georges & Uctum, Remzi, 2011. "Modelling oil price expectations: Evidence from survey data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 236-247, June.
  25. Haddou, Samira, 2024. "Determinants of CDS in core and peripheral European countries: A comparative study during crisis and calm periods," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
  26. Canova, Fabio & de Nicolo, Gianni, 2003. "On the sources of business cycles in the G-7," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 77-100, January.
  27. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels & Andros Kourtellos, 2013. "Should Macroeconomic Forecasters Use Daily Financial Data and How?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 240-251, April.
  28. Faria, Gonçalo & Verona, Fabio, 2023. "Forecast combination in the frequency domain," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 1/2023, Bank of Finland.
  29. Wu, Tao, 2006. "Macro Factors and the Affine Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(7), pages 1847-1875, October.
  30. Poon, Aubrey & Zhu, Dan, 2022. "Do Recessions Occur Concurrently Across Countries? A Multinomial Logistic Approach," Working Papers 2022:11, Örebro University, School of Business.
  31. L. Baele & R. Vander Vennet & A. Van Landschoot, 2004. "Bank Risk Strategies and Cyclical Variation in Bank Stock Returns," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 04/217, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  32. Brito, Ricardo D. & Duarte, Angelo José Mont' Alverne & Guillen, Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho, 2004. "Overreaction of yield spreads and movements of Brazilian interest ratest," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 24(1), May.
  33. Bank for International Settlements, 2008. "Financial market developments and their implications for monetary policy," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 39.
  34. Franck Sédillot, 2001. "La pente des taux contient-elle de l'information sur l'activité économique future ?," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 147(1), pages 141-157.
  35. Zolotoy, Leon & Frederickson, James R. & Lyon, John D., 2017. "Aggregate earnings and stock market returns: The good, the bad, and the state-dependent," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 157-175.
  36. Jermann, Urban J., 1998. "Asset pricing in production economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 257-275, April.
  37. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2016. "Do markets learn to rationally expect US interest rates? Evidence from survey data," Post-Print hal-01411824, HAL.
  38. Amihud, Yakov & Hurvich, Clifford M. & Wang, Yi, 2010. "Predictive regression with order-p autoregressive predictors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 513-525, June.
  39. Drakos, Konstantinos, 2001. "Monetary policy and the yield curve in an emerging market: the Greek case," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 244-262, September.
  40. Foley-Fisher, Nathan & Ramcharan, Rodney & Yu, Edison, 2016. "The impact of unconventional monetary policy on firm financing constraints: Evidence from the maturity extension program," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 409-429.
  41. Ben S. Bernanke, 1990. "On the predictive power of interest rates and interest rate spreads," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 51-68.
  42. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May.
  43. Sergio Zúñiga, 1999. "Modelos de Tasas de Interés en Chile: Una Revisión," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 36(108), pages 875-893.
  44. Sumanpreet Kaur, 2019. "An Attempt to Predict Recession for the Indian Economy Using Leading Indicators," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(3), pages 171-190, September.
  45. Jagjit Chadha & Sean Holly, 2006. "Macroeconomic Models and the Yield Curve," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 105, Society for Computational Economics.
  46. Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Robert F. Whitelaw, 1997. "Nonlinearities in the Relation Between the Equity Risk Premium and the Term Structure," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 43(3), pages 371-385, March.
  47. Edward N. Gamber, 1996. "The policy content of the yield curve slope," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(2), pages 163-179.
  48. Mikhail V. Oet & John M. Dooley & Stephen J. Ong, 2015. "The Financial Stress Index: Identification of Systemic Risk Conditions," Risks, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-25, September.
  49. Anna Cieslak & Pavol Povala, 2016. "Information in the Term Structure of Yield Curve Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(3), pages 1393-1436, June.
  50. Hibiki Ichiue, 2004. "Why Can the Yield Curve Predict Output Growth, Inflation, and Interest Rates? An Analysis with an Affine Term Structure Model," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 04-E-11, Bank of Japan.
  51. Österholm, Pär, 2013. "Forecasting Business Investment in the Short Term Using Survey Data," Working Papers 131, National Institute of Economic Research.
  52. Karahan, Cenk C. & Soykök, Emre, 2023. "On illiquidity of an emerging sovereign bond market," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(2).
  53. Martin Pažický, 2021. "Predicting Recessions in Germany Using the German and the US Yield Curve," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(3), pages 263-291, December.
  54. Rolando Pelàez, 2007. "Ex ante forecasts of business-cycle turning points," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 239-246, April.
  55. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. Van Dijk, 2016. "Interconnections Between Eurozone and us Booms and Busts Using a Bayesian Panel Markov‐Switching VAR Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1352-1370, November.
  56. Jan J. J. Groen & Richard Paap & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2013. "Real-Time Inflation Forecasting in a Changing World," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 29-44, January.
  57. Todd J. BARRY, 2020. "Causes of the curve: Assessing risk in public and private financial economics," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(623), S), pages 109-130, Summer.
  58. Grith, Maria & Karl Härdle, Wolfgang & Krätschmer, Volker, 2013. "Reference dependent preferences and the EPK puzzle," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2013-023, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
  59. Rebecca Stuart, 2020. "Monetary regimes, the term structure and business cycles in Ireland, 1972–2018," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(5), pages 731-748, September.
  60. Chang Min LEE & Hahn Shik LEE, 2016. "Improving the Predictive Power of Spreads for Economic Activity: A Wavelet Method," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 65-78, December.
  61. Peel, David A. & Taylor, Mark P., 1998. "The slope of the yield curve and real economic activity: tracing the transmission mechanism," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 353-360, June.
  62. Athanasios Triantafyllou & Dimitrios Bakas & Marilou Ioakimidis, 2023. "Commodity price uncertainty as a leading indicator of economic activity," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 4194-4219, October.
  63. Shuaizhang Feng & Jiandong Sun, 2020. "Misclassification-Errors-Adjusted Sahm Rule for Early Identification of Economic Recession," Working Papers 2020-029, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
  64. Javier Gomez-Biscarri, 2009. "The predictive power of the term spread revisited: a change in the sign of the predictive relationship," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(14), pages 1131-1142.
  65. Cochrane, John H., 2005. "Financial Markets and the Real Economy," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(1), pages 1-101, July.
  66. Yasmeen Idilbi-Bayaa & Mahmoud Qadan, 2021. "Forecasting Commodity Prices Using the Term Structure," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-39, December.
  67. McMillan, David G., 2021. "When and why do stock and bond markets predict US economic growth?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 331-343.
  68. Massimo Guidolin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Andrea Tortora, 2014. "Myths and Facts about the Alleged Over-Pricing of U.S. Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 477-523, November.
  69. Albuquerque, Rui & Schroth, Enrique, 2012. "The Value of Control and the Costs of Illiquidity," CEPR Discussion Papers 9090, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  70. Van Landschoot, Astrid, 2004. "Determinants of euro term structure of credit spreads," Working Paper Series 397, European Central Bank.
  71. Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou & Maria Matthaiou & Efthymia Chrysanthidou, 2015. "Yield Curve and Recession Forecasting in a Machine Learning Framework," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 45(4), pages 635-645, April.
  72. Nima Nonejad, 2021. "Crude oil price point forecasts of the Norwegian GDP growth rate," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(5), pages 2913-2930, November.
  73. Evangelos Salachas & Georgios P. Kouretas & Nikiforos T. Laopodis, 2024. "The term structure of interest rates and economic activity: Evidence from the COVID‐19 pandemic," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(4), pages 1018-1041, July.
  74. Campbell, John Y & Ammer, John, 1993. "What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-37, March.
  75. Min Jeong Kim & Dohyoung Kwon, 2023. "Dynamic asset allocation strategy: an economic regime approach," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(2), pages 136-147, March.
  76. Engsted, Tom, 1996. "The predictive power of the money market term structure," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 289-295, June.
  77. Hamilton, James D & Kim, Dong Heon, 2002. "A Reexamination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 340-360, May.
  78. Fabio ALESSANDRINI, 2003. "Do Financial Variables Provide Information about the Swiss Business Cycle ?," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 03.02, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
  79. Marcelle Chauvet & Simon Potter, 2005. "Forecasting recessions using the yield curve," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 77-103.
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  82. Chatterjee, Ujjal K., 2018. "Bank liquidity creation and recessions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 64-75.
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  87. Saar, Dan & Yagil, Yossi, 2015. "Forecasting sectorial profitability and credit spreads using bond yields," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 29-43.
  88. Dongfeng Chang & Ryan S. Mattson & Biyan Tang, 2019. "The Predictive Power of the User Cost Spread for Economic Recession in China and the US," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-12, June.
  89. Arun Gupta & Horacio Sapriza, 2022. "Do Costly Internal Equity Injections Reveal Bank Expectations about Post-Crisis Real Outcomes?," Working Paper 23-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  90. Lassaâd Mbarek & Hardik A. Marfatia & Sonja Juko, 2018. "Time-varying Response of Treasury Yields to Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Tunisian Bond Market," Working Papers 1243, Economic Research Forum, revised 23 Oct 2018.
  91. Tobias Adrian & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2016. "CoVaR," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(7), pages 1705-1741, July.
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  92. Soloschenko, Max & Weber, Enzo, 2014. "Capturing the Interaction of Trend, Cycle, Expectations and Risk Premia in the US Term Structure," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 475, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
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  128. Hännikäinen, Jari, 2017. "When does the yield curve contain predictive power? Evidence from a data-rich environment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 1044-1064.
  129. Christian Gayer & Alessandro Girardi & Andreas Reuter, 2016. "Replacing Judgment by Statistics: Constructing Consumer Confidence Indicators on the basis of Data-driven Techniques. The Case of the Euro Area," Working Papers LuissLab 16125, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
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  132. John Y. Campbell, 1995. "Some Lessons from the Yield Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 129-152, Summer.
  133. Thomas B. King & Andrew T. Levin & Roberto Perli, 2007. "Financial market perceptions of recession risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  134. Diego Romero‐Ávila, 2007. "Unit roots and persistence in the nominal interest rate: a confirmatory analysis applied to the OECD," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(3), pages 980-1007, August.
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