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The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity

Citations

RePEc Biblio mentions

As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
  1. > Econometrics > Forecasting > Forecasting Economic Activity Using Financial Variables

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Cited by:

  1. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Interactions between eurozone and US booms and busts: A Bayesian panel Markov-switching VAR model," Working Papers 2013:17, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari", revised 2014.
  2. Hans-Eggert Reimers, 2012. "Early Warning Indicator Model of Financial Developments Using an Ordered Logit," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 2(2), pages 171-191, December.
  3. Hans Dewachter & Leonardo Iania & Marco Lyrio, 2014. "Information In The Yield Curve: A Macro‐Finance Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 42-64, January.
  4. Muhammad Yasir & Sitara Afzal & Khalid Latif & Ghulam Mujtaba Chaudhary & Nazish Yameen Malik & Farhan Shahzad & Oh-young Song, 2020. "An Efficient Deep Learning Based Model to Predict Interest Rate Using Twitter Sentiment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-16, February.
  5. Luca Brugnolini, 2018. "Forecasting Deflation Probability in the EA: A Combinatoric Approach," CBM Working Papers WP/01/2018, Central Bank of Malta.
  6. Ken Nyholm, 2007. "A New Approach to Predicting Recessions," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 36(1), pages 27-42, February.
  7. Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2013. "Changes in predictive ability with mixed frequency data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 395-410.
  8. Quentin LAJAUNIE, 2021. "Nonlinear Impulse Response Function for Dichotomous Models," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2852, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
  9. Mehmet Balcilar & Edmond Berisha & Oğuzhan Çepni & Rangan Gupta, 2022. "The predictive power of the term spread on inequality in the United Kingdom: An empirical analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 1979-1988, April.
  10. Christos Agiakloglou & Michalis Gkouvakis & Aggelos Kanas, 2016. "Causality in EU macroeconomic variables," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 264-277, March.
  11. Landschoot, Astrid Van, 2008. "Determinants of yield spread dynamics: Euro versus US dollar corporate bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2597-2605, December.
  12. Evans, Charles L. & Marshall, David A., 2007. "Economic determinants of the nominal treasury yield curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1986-2003, October.
  13. Chris Florakis & Gianluigi Giorgioni & Alexandros Kostakis & Costas Milas, 2012. "The Impact of Stock Market Illiquidity on Real UK GDP Growth," Working Paper series 65_12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  14. Esther Fernández Galar & Javier Gómez Biscarri, 2003. "Revisiting the Ability of Interest Rate Spreads to Predict Recessions: Evidence for a," Faculty Working Papers 04/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  15. Cyrille Lenoel & Garry Young, 2020. "Real-time turning point indicators: Review of current international practices," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2020-05, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
  16. Jennie Bai & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein & Jean Helwege, 2012. "On bounding credit event risk premia," Staff Reports 577, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  17. Hammami, Yacine & Lindahl, Anna, 2014. "An intertemporal capital asset pricing model with bank credit growth as a state variable," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 14-28.
  18. Krishnaswami, Sudha & Yaman, Devrim, 2007. "Contracting costs and the window of opportunity for straight debt issues," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 869-888, March.
  19. Eric Hillebrand & Huiyu Huang & Tae-Hwy Lee & Canlin Li, 2018. "Using the Entire Yield Curve in Forecasting Output and Inflation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-27, August.
  20. Gong, Fangxiong & Remolona, Eli M, 1997. "Two Factors along the Yield Curve," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 65(0), pages 1-31, Supplemen.
  21. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
  22. Johannes A. Skjeltorp & Bernt Arne Ødegaard, 2009. "The information content of market liquidity: An empirical analysis of liquidity at the Oslo Stock Exchange?," Working Paper 2009/26, Norges Bank.
  23. René Garcia & Richard Luger, 2007. "The Canadian macroeconomy and the yield curve: an equilibrium‐based approach," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(2), pages 561-583, May.
  24. Jan J. J. Groen & Richard Paap & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2013. "Real-Time Inflation Forecasting in a Changing World," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 29-44, January.
  25. Donato Ceci & Andrea Silvestrini, 2023. "Nowcasting the state of the Italian economy: The role of financial markets," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1569-1593, November.
  26. Hasse, Jean-Baptiste & Lajaunie, Quentin, 2022. "Does the yield curve signal recessions? New evidence from an international panel data analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 9-22.
  27. Andrei Sirchenko, 2019. "A regime-switching model for the federal funds rate target," UvA-Econometrics Working Papers 19-01, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Dept. of Econometrics.
  28. Kim, Myeong Hyeon & Kim, Baeho, 2014. "Systematic cyclicality of systemic bubbles: Evidence from the U.S. commercial banking system," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 281-297.
  29. Yunus Aksoy & Henrique S. Basso, 2014. "Liquidity, Term Spreads and Monetary Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(581), pages 1234-1278, December.
  30. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench, 2016. "The term structure of expectations and bond yields," Staff Reports 775, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  31. Filippo COSSETTI & Francesco GUIDI, 2009. "ECB Monetary Policy and Term Structure of Interest Rates in the Euro Area: an Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 334, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
  32. Athanasios Triantafyllou & Dimitrios Bakas & Marilou Ioakimidis, 2023. "Commodity price uncertainty as a leading indicator of economic activity," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 4194-4219, October.
  33. Simon Gilchrist & Benoit Mojon, 2018. "Credit Risk in the Euro Area," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(608), pages 118-158, February.
  34. Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Asli Yuksel & Aydin Yuksel, 2020. "The US Term Structure and Return Volatility in Global REIT Markets," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 24(3), pages 84-109, September.
  35. van Landschoot, A., 2003. "The Term Structure of Credit Spreads on Euro Corporate Bonds," Discussion Paper 2003-046, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  36. Zhiwei Zhang, 2002. "Corporate Bond Spreads and the Business Cycle," Staff Working Papers 02-15, Bank of Canada.
  37. Galbraith, John W. & Tkacz, Greg, 2000. "Testing for asymmetry in the link between the yield spread and output in the G-7 countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 657-672, October.
  38. Patrick Artus & Moncef Kaabi, 1994. "Structure par terme des taux d'intérêt et reprise économique," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 112(1), pages 87-99.
  39. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues, 1998. "Consistent covariance matrix estimation in probit models with autocorrelated errors," Staff Reports 39, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  40. Christos Argyropoulos & Bertrand Candelon & Jean‐Baptiste Hasse & Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2024. "Towards a macroprudential regulatory framework for mutual funds?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 3063-3082, July.
  41. Antunes, António & Bonfim, Diana & Monteiro, Nuno & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M., 2018. "Forecasting banking crises with dynamic panel probit models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 249-275.
  42. Moolman, Elna, 2004. "A Markov switching regime model of the South African business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 631-646, July.
  43. Prat, Georges & Uctum, Remzi, 2011. "Modelling oil price expectations: Evidence from survey data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 236-247, June.
  44. Haddou, Samira, 2024. "Determinants of CDS in core and peripheral European countries: A comparative study during crisis and calm periods," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
  45. Canova, Fabio & de Nicolo, Gianni, 2003. "On the sources of business cycles in the G-7," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 77-100, January.
  46. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels & Andros Kourtellos, 2013. "Should Macroeconomic Forecasters Use Daily Financial Data and How?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 240-251, April.
  47. Faria, Gonçalo & Verona, Fabio, 2023. "Forecast combination in the frequency domain," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 1/2023, Bank of Finland.
  48. Louis R. Piccotti, 2022. "Portfolio returns and consumption growth covariation in the frequency domain, real economic activity, and expected returns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 513-549, September.
  49. Y. K. Tse, 1998. "Interest Rate Spreads And The Prediction Of Real Economic Activity: The Case Of Singapore," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 36(3), pages 289-304, September.
  50. Wu, Tao, 2006. "Macro Factors and the Affine Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(7), pages 1847-1875, October.
  51. Poon, Aubrey & Zhu, Dan, 2022. "Do Recessions Occur Concurrently Across Countries? A Multinomial Logistic Approach," Working Papers 2022:11, Örebro University, School of Business.
  52. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2006_025 is not listed on IDEAS
  53. Fernando Garcia Alvarado, 2022. "Detecting crisis vulnerability using yield spread interconnectedness," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 3864-3880, October.
  54. Christiansen, Charlotte & Eriksen, Jonas N. & Møller, Stig V., 2019. "Negative house price co-movements and US recessions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 382-394.
  55. L. Baele & R. Vander Vennet & A. Van Landschoot, 2004. "Bank Risk Strategies and Cyclical Variation in Bank Stock Returns," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 04/217, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  56. Brito, Ricardo D. & Duarte, Angelo José Mont' Alverne & Guillen, Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho, 2004. "Overreaction of yield spreads and movements of Brazilian interest ratest," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 24(1), May.
  57. Rosenberg, Joshua V. & Engle, Robert F., 2002. "Empirical pricing kernels," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 341-372, June.
  58. G. Peersman, 2011. "Bank Lending Shocks and the Euro Area Business Cycle," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 11/766, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  59. Bank for International Settlements, 2008. "Financial market developments and their implications for monetary policy," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 39.
  60. Franck Sédillot, 2001. "La pente des taux contient-elle de l'information sur l'activité économique future ?," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 147(1), pages 141-157.
  61. Duarte, A. & Venetis, I. & Payá, I., 2004. "Curva de rendimientos y crecimiento de la producción real en la UEM: eficiencia y estabilidad predictiva./Yield Curve and Real Output Growth in the EMU: Efficiency and Predictive Stability," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 22, pages 1-21, Abril.
  62. Zolotoy, Leon & Frederickson, James R. & Lyon, John D., 2017. "Aggregate earnings and stock market returns: The good, the bad, and the state-dependent," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 157-175.
  63. Christian Conrad & Karin Loch, 2015. "Anticipating Long‐Term Stock Market Volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(7), pages 1090-1114, November.
  64. Jermann, Urban J., 1998. "Asset pricing in production economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 257-275, April.
  65. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2016. "Do markets learn to rationally expect US interest rates? Evidence from survey data," Post-Print hal-01411824, HAL.
  66. Amihud, Yakov & Hurvich, Clifford M. & Wang, Yi, 2010. "Predictive regression with order-p autoregressive predictors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 513-525, June.
  67. Bikbov, Ruslan & Chernov, Mikhail, 2010. "No-arbitrage macroeconomic determinants of the yield curve," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(1), pages 166-182, November.
  68. Drakos, Konstantinos, 2001. "Monetary policy and the yield curve in an emerging market: the Greek case," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 244-262, September.
  69. Bordo, Michael D. & Haubrich, Joseph G., 2022. "Some international evidence on the causal impact of the yield curve," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
  70. Foley-Fisher, Nathan & Ramcharan, Rodney & Yu, Edison, 2016. "The impact of unconventional monetary policy on firm financing constraints: Evidence from the maturity extension program," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 409-429.
  71. Kevin Aretz & David A. Peel, 2010. "Spreads versus professional forecasters as predictors of future output change," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(6), pages 517-522.
  72. Emanuel Kohlscheen & Richhild Moessner & Daniel M. Rees, 2024. "The shape of business cycles: A cross‐country analysis of Friedman's plucking theory," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 77(2), pages 351-370, May.
  73. Ben S. Bernanke, 1990. "On the predictive power of interest rates and interest rate spreads," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 51-68.
  74. Kajal Lahiri & Cheng Yang, 2022. "ROC approach to forecasting recessions using daily yield spreads," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 57(4), pages 191-203, October.
  75. Roh, Tai-Yong & Lee, Changjun & Min, Byoung-Kyu, 2019. "Consumption growth predictability and asset prices," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 95-118.
  76. Jesús Vázquez, 2009. "Does the term spread play a role in the fed funds rate reaction function? An empirical investigation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 175-199, February.
  77. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May.
  78. Chambers, Robert G. & Quiggin, John, 2008. "Narrowing the no-arbitrage bounds," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 1-14, January.
  79. Sergio Zúñiga, 1999. "Modelos de Tasas de Interés en Chile: Una Revisión," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 36(108), pages 875-893.
  80. Sumanpreet Kaur, 2019. "An Attempt to Predict Recession for the Indian Economy Using Leading Indicators," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(3), pages 171-190, September.
  81. Jagjit Chadha & Sean Holly, 2006. "Macroeconomic Models and the Yield Curve," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 105, Society for Computational Economics.
  82. Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Robert F. Whitelaw, 1997. "Nonlinearities in the Relation Between the Equity Risk Premium and the Term Structure," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 43(3), pages 371-385, March.
  83. Reinhart, Carmen & Reinhart, Vincent, 1996. "Forecasting turning points in Canada," MPRA Paper 13884, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  84. Edward N. Gamber, 1996. "The policy content of the yield curve slope," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(2), pages 163-179.
  85. Fabio Fornari & Antonio Mele, 2013. "Financial Volatility and Economic Activity," Journal of Financial Management, Markets and Institutions, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 155-198, December.
  86. Pederzoli, Chiara & Torricelli, Costanza, 2005. "Capital requirements and business cycle regimes: Forward-looking modelling of default probabilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(12), pages 3121-3140, December.
  87. Mika Vaihekoski, 2009. "Pricing of liquidity risk: empirical evidence from Finland," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(19), pages 1547-1557.
  88. Mikhail V. Oet & John M. Dooley & Stephen J. Ong, 2015. "The Financial Stress Index: Identification of Systemic Risk Conditions," Risks, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-25, September.
  89. Arnaud Mehl, 2009. "The Yield Curve as a Predictor and Emerging Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(5), pages 683-716, November.
  90. Anna Cieslak & Pavol Povala, 2016. "Information in the Term Structure of Yield Curve Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(3), pages 1393-1436, June.
  91. Luca Benzoni & Olena Chyruk & David Kelley, 2018. "Why Does the Yield-Curve Slope Predict Recessions?," Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  92. Baghestani, Hamid, 2009. "Survey evidence on forecast accuracy of U.S. term spreads," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 156-162, August.
  93. Giovanni Calice & Ming Zeng, 2021. "The term structure of sovereign credit default swap and the cross‐section of exchange rate predictability," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 445-458, January.
  94. Menzie Chinn & Kavan Kucko, 2015. "The Predictive Power of the Yield Curve Across Countries and Time," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(2), pages 129-156, June.
  95. Zagaglia, Paolo, 2006. "Does the Yield Spread Predict the Output Gap in the U.S.?," Research Papers in Economics 2006:5, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
  96. Chauvet, Marcelle & Senyuz, Zeynep & Yoldas, Emre, 2015. "What does financial volatility tell us about macroeconomic fluctuations?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 340-360.
  97. Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2008. "Lack of signal error (LoSE) and implications for OLS regression: measurement error for macro data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-15, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  98. Hibiki Ichiue, 2004. "Why Can the Yield Curve Predict Output Growth, Inflation, and Interest Rates? An Analysis with an Affine Term Structure Model," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 04-E-11, Bank of Japan.
  99. Liu, Weiling & Moench, Emanuel, 2016. "What predicts US recessions?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1138-1150.
  100. Österholm, Pär, 2013. "Forecasting Business Investment in the Short Term Using Survey Data," Working Papers 131, National Institute of Economic Research.
  101. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2003. "The macroeconomy and the yield curve: a nonstructural analysis," Working Paper Series 2003-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  102. Karahan, Cenk C. & Soykök, Emre, 2023. "On illiquidity of an emerging sovereign bond market," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(2).
  103. Marcio Santetti, 2023. "A time-varying finance-led model for U.S. business cycles," Papers 2310.05153, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
  104. Martin Pažický, 2021. "Predicting Recessions in Germany Using the German and the US Yield Curve," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(3), pages 263-291, December.
  105. Rolando Pelàez, 2007. "Ex ante forecasts of business-cycle turning points," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 239-246, April.
  106. Yu-chin Chen & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2013. "What Does the Yield Curve Tell Us about Exchange Rate Predictability?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(1), pages 185-205, March.
  107. Cooper, Ilan & Priestley, Richard, 2011. "Real investment and risk dynamics," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 182-205, July.
  108. Lorenzo Boldrini & Eric Hillebrand, 2015. "The Forecasting Power of the Yield Curve, a Supervised Factor Model Approach," CREATES Research Papers 2015-39, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  109. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:37:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
  110. Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2013. "Oil and U.S. GDP: A Real-Time Out-of-Sample Examination," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(2-3), pages 449-463, March.
  111. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. Van Dijk, 2016. "Interconnections Between Eurozone and us Booms and Busts Using a Bayesian Panel Markov‐Switching VAR Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1352-1370, November.
  112. Guidolin, Massimo & Ono, Sadayuki, 2006. "Are the dynamic linkages between the macroeconomy and asset prices time-varying?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(5-6), pages 480-518.
  113. Todd J. BARRY, 2020. "Causes of the curve: Assessing risk in public and private financial economics," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(623), S), pages 109-130, Summer.
  114. Grith, Maria & Karl Härdle, Wolfgang & Krätschmer, Volker, 2013. "Reference dependent preferences and the EPK puzzle," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2013-023, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
  115. Rebecca Stuart, 2020. "Monetary regimes, the term structure and business cycles in Ireland, 1972–2018," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(5), pages 731-748, September.
  116. Anna Florio, 2016. "The central bank as shaper and observer of events: The case of the yield spread," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(1), pages 320-346, February.
  117. Chang Min LEE & Hahn Shik LEE, 2016. "Improving the Predictive Power of Spreads for Economic Activity: A Wavelet Method," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 65-78, December.
  118. Vázquez, Jesús & Aguilar, Pablo, 2021. "Adaptive learning with term structure information," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
  119. Peel, David A. & Taylor, Mark P., 1998. "The slope of the yield curve and real economic activity: tracing the transmission mechanism," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 353-360, June.
  120. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek, 2012. "Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1692-1720, June.
  121. Shuaizhang Feng & Jiandong Sun, 2020. "Misclassification-Errors-Adjusted Sahm Rule for Early Identification of Economic Recession," Working Papers 2020-029, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
  122. Javier Gomez-Biscarri, 2009. "The predictive power of the term spread revisited: a change in the sign of the predictive relationship," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(14), pages 1131-1142.
  123. Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2006. "The predictive content of financial variables: Evidence from the euro area," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp178, IIIS.
  124. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2012. "The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 1950-1970.
  125. Evans, Charles L. & Marshall, David A., 1998. "Monetary policy and the term structure of nominal interest rates: Evidence and theory," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 53-111, December.
  126. Carlo Favero & Iryna Kaminska & Ulf Soderstrom, 2005. "The Predictive Power of the Yield Spread: Further Evidence and a Structural Interpretation," Working Papers 280, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  127. Michael Feroli, 2004. "Monetary policy and the information content of the yield spread," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  128. Cochrane, John H., 2005. "Financial Markets and the Real Economy," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(1), pages 1-101, July.
  129. Yasmeen Idilbi-Bayaa & Mahmoud Qadan, 2021. "Forecasting Commodity Prices Using the Term Structure," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-39, December.
  130. McMillan, David G., 2021. "When and why do stock and bond markets predict US economic growth?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 331-343.
  131. Iseringhausen, Martin, 2024. "A time-varying skewness model for Growth-at-Risk," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 229-246.
  132. Massimo Guidolin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Andrea Tortora, 2014. "Myths and Facts about the Alleged Over-Pricing of U.S. Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 477-523, November.
  133. Gungor, Sermin & Luger, Richard, 2020. "Small-sample tests for stock return predictability with possibly non-stationary regressors and GARCH-type effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 218(2), pages 750-770.
  134. Albuquerque, Rui & Schroth, Enrique, 2012. "The Value of Control and the Costs of Illiquidity," CEPR Discussion Papers 9090, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  135. Van Landschoot, Astrid, 2004. "Determinants of euro term structure of credit spreads," Working Paper Series 397, European Central Bank.
  136. Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou & Maria Matthaiou & Efthymia Chrysanthidou, 2015. "Yield Curve and Recession Forecasting in a Machine Learning Framework," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 45(4), pages 635-645, April.
  137. Nima Nonejad, 2021. "Crude oil price point forecasts of the Norwegian GDP growth rate," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(5), pages 2913-2930, November.
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