IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/r/ucp/jpolec/v88y1980i5p829-53.html
   My bibliography  Save this item

Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as


Cited by:

  1. Martin Lettau & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2008. "Reconciling the Return Predictability Evidence," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1607-1652, July.
  2. Verschoor, Willem F. C. & Wolff, Christian C. P., 2001. "Exchange risk premia, expectations formation and "news" in the Mexican peso/U.S. dollar forward exchange rate market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 157-174.
  3. Jördis Hengelbrock & Erik Theissen & Christian Westheide, 2013. "Market Response to Investor Sentiment," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(7-8), pages 901-917, September.
  4. Andrew M. McKenzie & Bingrong Jiang & Harjanto Djunaidi & Linwood A. Hoffman & Eric J. Wailes, 2002. "Unbiasedness and Market Efficiency Tests of the U.S. Rice Futures Market," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 24(2), pages 474-493.
  5. Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente & Hyginus Leon, 2006. "Nonlinearity in Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: An Explanation of the Forward Bias Puzzle," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 10(3), pages 443-482, September.
  6. Frankel, Jeffrey & Poonawala, Jumana, 2010. "The forward market in emerging currencies: Less biased than in major currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 585-598, April.
  7. Hodrick, Robert J. & Srivastava, Sanjay, 1984. "An investigation of risk and return in forward foreign exchange," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 5-29, April.
  8. Rudiger Dornbusch & Stanley Fischer, 1986. "The Open Economy: Implications for Monetary and Fiscal Policy," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 459-516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Jacob A. Frenkel & Morris Goldstein, 1991. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Misalignment: Evaluating some Proposals for Reform," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Alfred Steinherr & Daniel Weiserbs (ed.), Evolution of the International and Regional Monetary Systems, chapter 8, pages 99-131, Palgrave Macmillan.
  10. Hamid Baghestani, 2006. "An evaluation of the professional forecasts of U.S. long‐term interest rates," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(2), pages 177-191.
  11. Hansen, Lars Peter, 2013. "Uncertainty Outside and Inside Economic Models," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-7, Nobel Prize Committee.
  12. Bofinger, Peter & Schmidt, Robert, 2003. "Should one rely on professional exchange rate forecasts: An empirical analysis of professional forecasts for the €/US-$ rate," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 38, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
  13. Rita Biswas & Hany Shawky, 1996. "The impact of political shocks on cointegrated exchange rate series," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 15-19.
  14. Hanno N. Lustig & Stijn G. Van Nieuwerburgh, 2005. "Housing Collateral, Consumption Insurance, and Risk Premia: An Empirical Perspective," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1167-1219, June.
  15. Hakkio, Craig S, 1981. "Expectations and the Forward Exchange Rate," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 22(3), pages 663-678, October.
  16. Coudert, Virginie & Mignon, Valérie, 2013. "The “forward premium puzzle” and the sovereign default risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 491-511.
  17. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2015. "Expectation formation in the foreign exchange market: a time-varying heterogeneity approach using survey data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(34-35), pages 3673-3695, July.
  18. Bratsiotis, George J. & Robinson, Wayne, 2005. "Currency composition of debt, risk premia and the 1997 Korean crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 459-471, May.
  19. Baillie, Richard T. & Diebold, Francis X. & Kapetanios, George & Kim, Kun Ho, 2023. "A new test for market efficiency and uncovered interest parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
  20. Antonio Diez de los Rios & Enrique Sentana, 2011. "Testing Uncovered Interest Parity: A Continuous‐Time Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1215-1251, November.
  21. Khan, Salman & Azmat, Saad, 2020. "Debt externality in equity markets: Leveraged portfolios and Islamic indices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 152-177.
  22. Charles L. Evans & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1998. "Can VAR's describe monetary policy?," Working Paper Series WP-98-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  23. Rongju Zhang & Mark Aarons & Gregoire Loeper, 2019. "Optimal FX Hedge Tenor with Liquidity Risk," Papers 1903.06346, arXiv.org.
  24. Diego Bastourre & Jorge Carrera & Javier Ibarlucia, 2008. "Commodity Prices in Argentina. What Does Move the Wind?," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 1-30, January-J.
  25. Barry Eichengreen., 1993. "International Monetary Arrangements for the 21st Century," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-021, University of California at Berkeley.
  26. Henriksson, Roy. & Lessard, Donald R., 1982. "The efficiency of the forward exchange market : a conditional nonparametric test of forecasting ability," Working papers 1337-82., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  27. Campbell, John Y. & Clarida, Richard H., 1987. "The term structure of euromarket interest rates : An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 25-44, January.
  28. Brian H. Boyer & Taylor D. Nadauld & Keith P. Vorkink & Michael S. Weisbach, 2023. "Discount‐Rate Risk in Private Equity: Evidence from Secondary Market Transactions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(2), pages 835-885, April.
  29. Hans Lindberg & Lars E.O. Svensson & Paul Soderlind, 1991. "Devaluation Expectations: The Swedish Krona 1982-1991," NBER Working Papers 3918, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. Carmen Broto & Javier Díaz-Cassou & Aitor Erce-Domínguez, 2008. "The Sources of Capital Flows Volatility: Empirical Evidence for Emerging Countries," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 93-128, January-J.
  31. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson, 2013. "Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(6), pages 1483-1525.
  32. David R. Haab & Thomas Nitschka, 2020. "Carry trade and forward premium puzzle from the perspective of a safe‐haven currency," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 376-394, May.
  33. Sjaastad, Larry A., 2008. "The price of gold and the exchange rates: Once again," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 118-124, June.
  34. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Ou, Yangguoyi, 2012. "Analyzing interest rate risk: Stochastic volatility in the term structure of government bond yields," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 2988-3007.
  35. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2016. "Do markets learn to rationally expect US interest rates? Evidence from survey data," Post-Print hal-01411824, HAL.
  36. Huňady Ján & Pisár Peter & Jošić Hrvoje & Žmuk Berislav & Bach Mirjana Pejić, 2023. "Government and Business Funding of Sources of Funds for R&D at Universities: Complements or Substitutes?," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 18(2), pages 97-111, December.
  37. Lyons, Richard K., 1988. "Tests of the foreign exchange risk premium using the expected second moments implied by option pricing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 91-108, March.
  38. Javier Rojo-Suárez & Ana Belén Alonso-Conde, 2020. "Impact of consumer confidence on the expected returns of the Tokyo Stock Exchange: A comparative analysis of consumption and production-based asset pricing models," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(11), pages 1-31, November.
  39. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1990. "Does correcting for heteroscedasticity help?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 351-356, December.
  40. Ryan Bartens & Shakill Hassan, 2010. "Value, size and momentum portfolios in real time: the cross section of South African stocks," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 35(2), pages 181-202, August.
  41. Edlin, Aaron S., 2002. "Forward Discount Bias, Nalebuff's Envelope Puzzle, and the Siegel Paradox in Foreign Exchange," Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics, Working Paper Series qt2wc1p9pw, Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics.
  42. Gianluca Stefani & Marco Tiberti, 2013. "Textbook Estimators of Multiperiod Optimal Hedging Ratios: Methodological Aspects and Application to the European Wheat Market," Working Papers - Economics wp2013_29.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
  43. David Peel & Alan Speight, 1994. "Testing for non-linear dependence in inter-war exchange rates," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 130(2), pages 391-417, June.
  44. Sebastián Edwards, 1983. "La Relación entre las Tasas de Interés y el Tipo de Cambio Bajo un Sistema de Cambio Flotante," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 20(59), pages 65-74.
  45. Ahmet Can Inci, 2006. "Co‐integrating currencies and yield differentials," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(2), pages 159-175.
  46. Christian Leschinski & Michelle Voges & Philipp Sibbertsen, 2021. "Integration and Disintegration of EMU Government Bond Markets," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-17, March.
  47. Gregory, Allan W. & McCurdy, Thomas H., 1986. "The unbiasedness hypothesis in the forward foreign exchange market: A specification analysis with application to France, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and West Germany," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 365-381, April.
  48. Hjalmarsson, Erik, 2008. "Interpreting long-horizon estimates in predictive regressions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 104-117, June.
  49. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-137, March.
  50. Macide Cicek, 2014. "A Cointegration Test for Turkish Foreign Exchange Market Efficiency," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(4), pages 451-471, April.
  51. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2012. "Modeling the horizon-dependent risk premium in the forex market: evidence from survey data," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-29, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
  52. Suk-Joong Kim, 1997. "Testing the rationality of exchange rate and interest rate expectations: an empirical study of Australian survey-based expectations," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(8), pages 1011-1022.
  53. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1986. "The implications of mean-variance optimization for four questions in international macroeconomics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(1, Supple), pages 53-75, March.
  54. Juan Jose Echavarria & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2016. "Great expectations? evidence from Colombia’s exchange rate survey," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 25(1), pages 1-27, December.
  55. Albagli, Elias & Ceballos, Luis & Claro, Sebastian & Romero, Damian, 2024. "UIP deviations: Insights from event studies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
  56. Joutz, Fred & Stekler, H. O., 2000. "An evaluation of the predictions of the Federal Reserve," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 17-38.
  57. Martin S. Eichenbaum & Lars Peter Hansen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 1988. "A Time Series Analysis of Representative Agent Models of Consumption and Leisure Choice Under Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 103(1), pages 51-78.
  58. Richard M. Levich, 1983. "Empirical Studies of Exchange Rates: Price Behavior, Rate Determinationand Market Efficiency," NBER Working Papers 1112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  59. Gregory, Allan W. & McCurdy, Thomas H., 1984. "Testing the unbiasedness hypothesis in the forward foreign exchange market: A specification analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 357-368, December.
  60. Ligeralde, Antonio V., 1997. "Covariance matrix estimators and tests of market efficiency," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 323-343, April.
  61. Kuruppuarachchi, Duminda & Premachandra, I.M. & Roberts, Helen, 2019. "A novel market efficiency index for energy futures and their term structure risk premiums," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 23-33.
  62. Swanson, Eric T., 2021. "Measuring the effects of federal reserve forward guidance and asset purchases on financial markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 32-53.
  63. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1990. "The Information in the Longer Maturity Term Structure about Future Inflation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(3), pages 815-828.
  64. Cochrane, John H., 2005. "Financial Markets and the Real Economy," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(1), pages 1-101, July.
  65. Joe Peek & Eric Rosengren & Geoffrey M. B. Tootell, 1999. "Using bank supervisory data to improve macroeconomic forecasts," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Sep, pages 21-32.
  66. Rose, Andrew K & Svensson, Lars E O, 1991. "Expected and Predicted Realignments: The FF/DM Exchange Rate During the EMS," CEPR Discussion Papers 552, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  67. Jacob Boudoukh & Ronen Israel & Matthew P. Richardson, 2020. "Biases in Long-Horizon Predictive Regressions," NBER Working Papers 27410, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  68. Rui Albuquerque & Eva De Francisco & Luis B. Marques, 2008. "Marketwide Private Information in Stocks: Forecasting Currency Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(5), pages 2297-2343, October.
  69. Ulf Söderström & Alexis Stenfors, 1995. "Explaining devaluation expectations in the EMS," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 63-81, Autumn.
  70. David Barr & John Campbell, "undated". "Inflation, real interest rates and the bond market: a study of UK nominal and index-linked Government bond prices," CERF Discussion Paper Series 95-09, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
  71. Ahtiala, Pekka & Orgler, Yair E., 1995. "The optimal pricing of exports invoiced in different currencies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 61-77, April.
  72. Shi, Wei & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L. & Dietz, Sarah N., 2005. "Wheat Forward Contract Pricing: Evidence on Forecast Power and Risk Premia," 2005 Conference, April 18-19, 2005, St. Louis, Missouri 19043, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
  73. Chiquoine, Benjamin & Hjalmarsson, Erik, 2009. "Jackknifing stock return predictions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 793-803, December.
  74. Richard H. Cohen & Carl Bonham, 2007. "Specifying the Forecast Generating Process for Exchange Rate Survey Forecasts," Working Papers 200718, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
  75. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lundblad, Christian, 2005. "Does financial liberalization spur growth?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 3-55, July.
  76. Antonio Diez de Los Rios, 2015. "A New Linear Estimator for Gaussian Dynamic Term Structure Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 282-295, April.
  77. James M. Hvidding, 1991. "Do Households Misperceive the Price Level? Some Evidence from Survey Data," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 72-74, Jan-Mar.
  78. Fabio Canova & Mehdi Hamidi Sahneh, 2018. "Are Small-Scale SVARs Useful for Business Cycle Analysis? Revisiting Nonfundamentalness," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 1069-1093.
  79. Kostakis, Alexandros & Magdalinos, Tassos & Stamatogiannis, Michalis P., 2023. "Taking stock of long-horizon predictability tests: Are factor returns predictable?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
  80. Viktors Ajevskis & Armands Pogulis, 2005. "Repegging of the Lats to the Euro: Implications for the Financial Sector," Working Papers 2005/01, Latvijas Banka.
  81. Carol L. Osler, 1989. "Interest Rate Term Premiums and the Failure of the Speculative Efficiency Hypothesis: A Theoretical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 3060, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  82. Douglas J. Hodgson & Oliver Linton & Keith Vorkink, 2004. "Testing Forward Exchange Rate Unbiasedness Efficiently: A Semiparametric Approach," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 325-353, May.
  83. Timmermann, Allan & Elliott, Graham & Komunjer, Ivana, 2003. "Estimating Loss Function Parameters," CEPR Discussion Papers 3821, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  84. Thomas Chiang & Sheng-Yung Yang, 2005. "International Asset Excess Returns and Multivariate Conditional Volatilities," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 295-312, May.
  85. Ken Holden & John Thompson, 1997. "Combining forecasts, encompassing and the properties of UK macroeconomic forecasts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(11), pages 1447-1458.
  86. Alberto Giovannini, 1987. "Uncertainty and Liquidity," NBER Working Papers 2296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  87. Zhang, Yuhua & Niu, Yingjie & Wu, Ting, 2020. "Stochastic interest rates under rational inattention," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
  88. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "Can exchange rate predictability be achieved without monetary convergence? : Evidence from the EMS," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 93-115.
  89. Gan, Pei-Tha, 2014. "The precise form of financial integration: Empirical evidence for selected Asian countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 208-219.
  90. Mr. Luis Brandão-Marques & Mr. Gaston Gelos & Mr. Thomas Harjes & Ms. Ratna Sahay & Yi Xue, 2020. "Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies," IMF Working Papers 2020/035, International Monetary Fund.
  91. Thornton, Daniel L., 2006. "Tests of the Expectations Hypothesis: Resolving the Campbell-Shiller Paradox," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 511-542, March.
  92. Dimitris Kenourgios, 2005. "Testing Efficiency And The Unbiasedness Hypothesis Of The Emerging Greek Futures Market," Finance 0512015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  93. Bansal, Ravi & Dahlquist, Magnus, 2000. "The forward premium puzzle: different tales from developed and emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 115-144, June.
  94. Hodrick, Robert J. & Tomunen, Tuomas, 2021. "Taking the Cochrane-Piazzesi Term Structure Model Out of Sample: More Data, Additional Currencies, and FX Implications," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 10(1), pages 83-123, April.
  95. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-858, May.
  96. Chava, Sudheer & Gallmeyer, Michael & Park, Heungju, 2015. "Credit conditions and stock return predictability," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 117-132.
  97. David S. Bates, 1995. "Testing Option Pricing Models," NBER Working Papers 5129, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  98. Atanasov, Victoria & Nitschka, Thomas, 2014. "Currency excess returns and global downside market risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 268-285.
  99. Baxter, Timothy M. & Smith, Mark E., 1987. "Exchange Rate Risk, Dollar Appreciation, And U.S. Export Credit Programs," Staff Reports 277944, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  100. Boum-Jong Choe, 1990. "Rational expectations and commodity price forecasts," Policy Research Working Paper Series 435, The World Bank.
  101. Peter Isard, 1983. "What's wrong with empirical exchange rate models: some critical issues and new directions," International Finance Discussion Papers 226, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  102. Perron, Pierre & Vodounou, Cosme, 2004. "Tests of return predictability: an analysis of their properties based on a continuous time asymptotic framework," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 203-230, March.
  103. Chinn, Menzie D. & Meredith, Guy, 2000. "Testing uncovered interest parity at short and long horizons," HWWA Discussion Papers 102, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
  104. JG. Gonzalez & RW. Spencer & DT. Walz, 2000. "The term structure of interest rates and the Mexican economy," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 18(3), pages 284-294, July.
  105. A. DAVID McDONALD & JON D. KENDALL & TIM LA. RIDLEY, 1993. "GARCH‐M Estimates of Variable Risk Premia for 180‐day Australian Bank Bills," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 69(1), pages 10-19, March.
  106. David Elkayam & Alex Ilek, 2009. "The information content of inflationary expectations derived from bond prices in Israel," Advances in Econometrics, in: Measurement Error: Consequences, Applications and Solutions, pages 61-89, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
  107. Elliott, Graham & Ito, Takatoshi, 1999. "Heterogeneous expectations and tests of efficiency in the yen/dollar forward exchange rate market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 435-456, April.
  108. Alexander Ludwig, 2005. "Moment estimation in Auerbach-Kotlikoff models: How well do they match the data?," MEA discussion paper series 05093, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
  109. Richard H. Clarida & Mark P. Taylor, 1993. "The Term Structure of Forward Exchange Premia and the Forecastibility of Spot Exchange Rates: Correcting the Errors," NBER Working Papers 4442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  110. Alejandro Islas-Camargo & Willy Walter Cortez & Tania Pamela Sanabria Flores, 2018. "Is Mexico's Forward Exchange Rate Market Efficient?," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 13(2), pages 273-289, Abril-Jun.
  111. Esben Hedegaard & Robert J. Hodrick, 2014. "Measuring the Risk-Return Tradeoff with Time-Varying Conditional Covariances," NBER Working Papers 20245, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  112. Kwon, Ji Ho, 2024. "Bank credit, consumption risk, and the cross-section of expected returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
  113. Ardia, David & Bluteau, Keven & Tran, Thien Duy, 2022. "How easy is it for investment managers to deploy their talent in green and brown stocks?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
  114. Hutchison, Michael & Sushko, Vladyslav, 2013. "Impact of macro-economic surprises on carry trade activity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1133-1147.
  115. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1990. "What does the term structure tell us about future inflation?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 77-95, January.
  116. Bank for International Settlements, 2015. "Currency carry trades in Latin America," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 81, October –.
  117. Piet Sercu & Martina Vandebroek & Tom Vinaimont, 2008. "Thin-Trading Effects in Beta: Bias "v." Estimation Error," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(9-10), pages 1196-1219.
  118. Darvas, Zsolt, 1999. "Az árfolyamsávok empirikus modelljei és a devizaárfolyam sávon belüli előrejelezhetetlensége [Empirical models of exchange rate target zones]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 507-529.
  119. Scholl, Almuth & Uhlig, Harald, 2008. "New evidence on the puzzles: Results from agnostic identification on monetary policy and exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 1-13, September.
  120. Roy Stein, 2003. "Estimation of Expected Exchange-Rate Change Using Forward Call Options," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2003.02, Bank of Israel.
  121. Ederington, Louis H. & Huang, Chao-Hsi, 1995. "Parameter uncertainty and the rational expectations model of the term structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 207-223, May.
  122. Narayana Kocherlakota & Luigi Pistaferri, 2009. "Asset Pricing Implications of Pareto Optimality with Private Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(3), pages 555-590, June.
  123. Gianluca Stefani & Marco Tiberti, 2016. "Multiperiod optimal hedging ratios: methodological aspects and application to a wheat market," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 43(3), pages 503-531.
  124. Raj Aggarwal & Brian M. Lucey & Sunil K. Mohanty, 2006. "The Forward Exchange Rate Bias Puzzle: Evidence from New Cointegration Tests," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp123, IIIS.
  125. Niu, Linlin & Xu, Xiu & Chen, Ying, 2017. "An adaptive approach to forecasting three key macroeconomic variables for transitional China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 201-213.
  126. Lee, Suzanne S. & Wang, Minho, 2019. "The impact of jumps on carry trade returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(2), pages 433-455.
  127. Dechow, Patricia M. & Sloan, Richard G., 1997. "Returns to contrarian investment strategies: Tests of naive expectations hypotheses," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 3-27, January.
  128. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2011. "The Cross-Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3477-3500, December.
  129. Vitaly Orlov, 2018. "Solvency Risk Premia and the Carry Trades," Working Papers on Finance 1802, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
  130. Lars Peter Hansen, 2014. "Nobel Lecture: Uncertainty Outside and Inside Economic Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 122(5), pages 945-987.
  131. Chistiano, Lawrence J & den Haan, Wouter J, 1996. "Small-Sample Properties of GMM for Business-Cycle Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(3), pages 309-327, July.
  132. Bhar, Ramprasad & Kim, Suk-Joong & Pham, Toan M., 2004. "Exchange rate volatility and its impact on the transaction costs of covered interest rate parity," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 503-525, December.
  133. Tim Bollerslev & Benjamin Hood & John Huss & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2018. "Risk Everywhere: Modeling and Managing Volatility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(7), pages 2729-2773.
  134. Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2016. "Inflation Expectations and the Stabilization of Inflation : Alternative Hypotheses," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-035, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  135. Nelson Manuel Areal & Manuel Jose Da Rocha Armada, 2002. "The long-horizon returns behaviour of the Portuguese stock market1," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 93-122.
  136. Richard T., Baillie, 2011. "Possible solutions to the forward bias paradox," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 617-622, October.
  137. Richard T. Baillie & Francis X. Diebold & George Kapetanios & Kun Ho Kim, 2022. "On Robust Inference in Time Series Regression," PIER Working Paper Archive 22-012, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  138. Linton, Oliver B. & Mammen, Enno, 2008. "Nonparametric transformation to white noise," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 241-264, January.
  139. Beber, Alessandro & Breedon, Francis & Buraschi, Andrea, 2010. "Differences in beliefs and currency risk premiums," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(3), pages 415-438, December.
  140. Charlotte S. Hansen & Bjorn E. Tuypens, 2004. "Long-Run Regressions: Theory and Application to US Asset Markets," Finance 0410018, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  141. Sharon Kozicki & P. A. Tinsley, 2006. "Survey-Based Estimates of the Term Structure of Expected U.S. Inflation," Staff Working Papers 06-46, Bank of Canada.
  142. Zhiguang Wang & Prasad Bidarkota, 2012. "Risk premia in forward foreign exchange rates: a comparison of signal extraction and regression methods," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 21-51, February.
  143. Narayana R. Kocherlakota & Luigi Pistaferri, 2007. "Household Heterogeneity and Real Exchange Rates," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(519), pages 1-25, March.
  144. Edlin Aaron S., 2002. "Forward Discount Bias, Nalebuff's Envelope Puzzle, and the Siegel Paradox in Foreign Exchange," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-11, September.
  145. Choi, Jin Ho & Suh, Sangwon, 2022. "Conditionally-hedged currency carry trades," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
  146. McNulty, Mark S., 1985. "Information usage in the formation of price expectations: theory and econometric tests," ISU General Staff Papers 1985010108000013085, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  147. Kim, Daehwan & Song, Chi-Young, 2014. "Country Fundamentals and Currency Excess Returns," East Asian Economic Review, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, vol. 18(2), pages 111-142, June.
  148. Éric Jondeau & Roland Ricart, 1998. "La théorie des anticipations de la structure par terme : test à partir de titres publics français," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 52, pages 1-22.
  149. Gregory J. Costello, 2001. "A Spatial Approach to Price Segmentation in Housing Markets," ERES eres2001_139, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
  150. Zhengyang Jiang & Arvind Krishnamurthy & Hanno Lustig, 2021. "Foreign Safe Asset Demand and the Dollar Exchange Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 1049-1089, June.
  151. Ron Guido & Kathleen Walsh, 2001. "Equity Market Valuation: Assessing the Adequacy of Value Measures to Predict Index Returns," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 26(2), pages 163-196, December.
  152. Frederick Nieuwland & Willem Verschoor & Christian Wolff, 2000. "Exchange risk premia in the European monetary system," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 351-360.
  153. Evžen Kočenda, 2018. "Survey of Volatility and Spillovers on Financial Markets," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2018(3), pages 293-305.
  154. Emmanuel Farhi & Xavier Gabaix, "undated". "Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates," Working Paper 71001, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  155. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Nikitas Pittis, 1998. "Term structure and interest differentials as predictors of future inflation changes and inflation differentials," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 615-625.
  156. Stanislav Anatolyev, 2007. "Optimal Instruments In Time Series: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 143-173, February.
  157. Giovannini, Alberto & Rotemberg, Julio J, 1989. "Exchange-Rate Dynamics with Sticky Prices: The Deutsche Mark, 1974-1982," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(2), pages 169-178, April.
  158. Shaowen Luo, 2023. "Risk and return in the foreign exchange market: Measurement without VARs," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 64-81, April.
  159. Chih-Nan Chen & Chien-Hsiu Lin, 2022. "Optimal carry trade portfolio choice under regime shifts," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 483-506, August.
  160. Kuruppuarachchi, Duminda & Lin, Hai & Premachandra, I.M., 2019. "Testing commodity futures market efficiency under time-varying risk premiums and heteroscedastic prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 92-112.
  161. Valkanov, Rossen, 1999. "Long-Horizon Regressions: Theoretical Results and Applications to the Expected Returns/Dividend Yields and Fisher Effect Relations," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt67b2h2gb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
  162. McCallum, Bennett T., 1994. "A reconsideration of the uncovered interest parity relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 105-132, February.
  163. Helmut Herwartz & Leonardo Morales-Arias, 2009. "In-sample and out-of-sample properties of international stock return dynamics conditional on equilibrium pricing factors," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 1-28.
  164. Pedersen, Lasse Heje & Asness, Clifford S. & Liew, John M. & Thapar, Ashwin K, 2018. "Deep Value," CEPR Discussion Papers 12685, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  165. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2015. "Does data frequency matter for the impact of forward premium on spot exchange rate?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 45-53.
  166. Butler, Alexander W. & Cornaggia, Jess & Grullon, Gustavo & Weston, James P., 2011. "Corporate financing decisions, managerial market timing, and real investment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 666-683, September.
  167. Tjeerd de Vries, 2021. "A Tale of Two Tails: A Model-free Approach to Estimating Disaster Risk Premia and Testing Asset Pricing Models," Papers 2105.08208, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
  168. Park, S.B., 1997. "Cointegration and Market Efficiency: An Application to the Canadian Treasury Bill Market," Carleton Economic Papers 97-06, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
  169. Claudia Buch & Serkan Yener, 2010. "Consumption volatility and financial openness," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(28), pages 3635-3649.
  170. Yang Chang, 2014. "A Consistent Approach to Modelling the Interest Rate Market Anomalies Post the Global Financial Crisis," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 18, July-Dece.
  171. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1984. "Are Real Interest Rates Equal across Countries? An Empirical Investigation of International Parity Conditions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(5), pages 1345-1357, December.
  172. Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur, 2006. "Survey of Literature on Covered and Uncovered Interest Parities," MPRA Paper 22737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  173. Liu, Hening & Miao, Jianjun, 2015. "Growth uncertainty, generalized disappointment aversion and production-based asset pricing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 70-89.
  174. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Liu, Guangqiang, 2020. "Predicting exchange rate returns," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
  175. J. Annaert & W. Van Hyfte, 2006. "Long-Horizon Mean Reversion for the Brussels Stock Exchange: Evidence for the 19th Century," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 06/376, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  176. Charles Van Marrewijk, 2004. "An Introduction to International Money and Foreign Exchange Markets," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2004-07, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
  177. Berg, Kimberly A. & Mark, Nelson C., 2018. "Measures of global uncertainty and carry-trade excess returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 212-227.
  178. Chen, Zhaohui & Giovannini, Alberto, 1997. "The determinants of realignment expectations under the EMS: Some empirical regularities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(9), pages 1687-1707, December.
  179. Heeho Kim, 2013. "Uncertainty and risk premium puzzle," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 37(1), pages 62-79, January.
  180. Peijie Wang & Ping Wang, 2001. "Equilibrium adjustment, basis risk and risk transmission in spot and forward foreign exchange markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 127-136.
  181. Nelson, C.R. & Kim, M.J., 1990. "Predictable Stock Returns: Reality Or Statistical Illusion?," Working Papers 90-15, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  182. Gregory R. Duffee, 2002. "Term Premia and Interest Rate Forecasts in Affine Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 405-443, February.
  183. Galy, Michel, 1985. "Évaluation du processus d'intégration monétaire au sein du Système Monétaire Européen [Evaluation of the monetary integration process within the European Monetary Ststem]," MPRA Paper 62353, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  184. Geyikçi, Utku Bora & Özyıldırım, Süheyla, 2021. "To hedge or not to hedge: Carry trade dynamics in the emerging economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
  185. Min Wei & Jonathan H. Wright, 2009. "Confidence intervals for long-horizon predictive regressions via reverse regressions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-27, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  186. Croushore Dean, 2010. "An Evaluation of Inflation Forecasts from Surveys Using Real-Time Data," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-32, May.
  187. Claire Giordano, 2021. "How frequent a BEER? Assessing the impact of data frequency on real exchange rate misalignment estimation," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(3), pages 365-404, July.
  188. Patrick Fève & François Langot, 1995. "La méthode des moments généralisés et ses extensions : théorie et applications en macro-économie," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 119(3), pages 139-170.
  189. Richard C. Marston, 1987. "Exchange Rate Policy Reconsidered," NBER Working Papers 2310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  190. Adrian R Pagan & Anthony D Hall, 1983. "Diagnostic tests as residual analysis," Published Paper Series 1983-1, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  191. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2014. "Expectation formation in the foreign exchange market: a time-varying heterogeneity approach using survey data," Working Papers hal-04141348, HAL.
  192. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  193. Simon Price, 2004. "UK investment and the return to equity: Q redux," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 87, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  194. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1989. "Prices during the Great Depression: Was the Deflation of 1930-32 really unanticipated?," NBER Working Papers 3174, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  195. Richard H. Clarida & Mark P. Taylor, 1997. "The Term Structure Of Forward Exchange Premiums And The Forecastability Of Spot Exchange Rates: Correcting The Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(3), pages 353-361, August.
  196. Honohan, Patrick & Conroy, Charles, 1994. "Irish Interest Rate Fluctuations in The European Monetary System," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number GRS165.
  197. Xyngis, Georgios, 2017. "Business-cycle variation in macroeconomic uncertainty and the cross-section of expected returns: Evidence for scale-dependent risks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 43-65.
  198. Heinrich W. Ursprung, 1982. "Einige Bemerkungen zur empirischen Überprüfung der Effizienzhypothese für Devisenterminmärkte," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 118(I), pages 81-92, March.
  199. Mikio Ito & Kiyotaka Maeda & Akihiko Noda, 2017. "Discretion versus Policy Rules in Futures Markets: A Case of the Osaka-Dojima Rice Exchange, 1914-1939," Papers 1704.00985, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2018.
  200. Öge Güney, Pelin & Hasanov, Mübariz, 2014. "Real interest rate parity hypothesis in post-Soviet countries: Evidence from unit root tests," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 120-129.
  201. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2008. "The dynamics of ex-ante risk premia in the foreign exchange market: Evidence from the yen/usd exchange rate Using survey data," Working Papers hal-04140761, HAL.
  202. Eduardo Borensztein & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 236-261, June.
  203. Sarno, Lucio & Schneider, Paul & Wagner, Christian, 2010. "Properties of Foreign Exchange Risk Premia," MPRA Paper 21302, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  204. Vajanne, Laura, . "The Exchange Rate Under Target Zones," ETLA A, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy, number 16, June.
  205. Wu, Chih-Chiang & Wu, Chang-Che, 2017. "The asymmetry in carry trade and the U.S. dollar," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 304-313.
  206. Hu, Xiaoqiang, 1997. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 699-718, September.
  207. Pedersen, Karsten N., 1991. "Intertemporal substitution in consumption : evidence for some high- and middle-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 641, The World Bank.
  208. Ekkehart Boehmer & Charles M. Jones & Xiaoyan Zhang & Xinran Zhang, 2021. "Tracking Retail Investor Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(5), pages 2249-2305, October.
  209. John Pippenger, 1991. "Forward rates as predictors of future spot rates in small open economies: The case of Kuwait," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 183-201, June.
  210. Cumby, Robert E. & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1986. "The international linkage of real interest rates: The European-US connection," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 5-23, March.
  211. Meredith Beechey & David Gruen & James Vickery, 2000. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis: A Survey," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2000-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  212. A. Bénassy-Quéré & S. Larribeau & R. MacDonald, 1999. "Models of exchange rate expectations : heterogeneous evidence from Panel data," THEMA Working Papers 99-05, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
  213. Delcoure, Natalya & Barkoulas, John & Baum, Christopher F. & Chakraborty, Atreya, 2003. "The forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis reexamined: evidence from a new test," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 83-93, May.
  214. Miron, Jeffrey A. & Zeldes, Stephen P., 1989. "Production, sales, and the change in inventories : An identity that doesn't add up," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 31-51, July.
  215. Clarida, Richard H. & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P. & Valente, Giorgio, 2003. "The out-of-sample success of term structure models as exchange rate predictors: a step beyond," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 61-83, May.
  216. Gokcen Yilmaz, 2018. "Composition of public investment and economic growth: evidence from Turkish provinces, 1975-2001," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 42(2), pages 187-214.
  217. Edwards, Sebastian, 1982. "Exchange rates and `news': A multi-currency approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 211-224, January.
  218. Martin D. Evans & Karen K. Lewis, 1992. "Peso Problems and Heterogeneous Trading: Evidence from Excess Returns in Foreign Exchange and Euromarkets," Working Papers 92-13, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  219. Bartram, Söhnke & Djuranovik, Leslie & Garratt, Anthony, 2021. "Currency Anomalies," CEPR Discussion Papers 15653, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  220. Myung Jig Kim & Charles R. Nelson & Richard Startz, 1991. "Mean Reversion in Stock Prices? A Reappraisal of the Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 515-528.
  221. Yang Chang, 2014. "A Consistent Approach to Modelling the Interest Rate Market Anomalies Post the Global Financial Crisis," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 2-2014, January-A.
  222. Piazzesi, Monika & Swanson, Eric T., 2008. "Futures prices as risk-adjusted forecasts of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 677-691, May.
  223. Lukas Menkhoff & Rafael Rebitzky & Michael Schroder, 2008. "Do dollar forecasters believe too much in PPP?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 261-270.
  224. Domian, Dale L. & Louton, David A., 1997. "A threshold autoregressive analysis of stock returns and real economic activity," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 167-179.
  225. Alastair R. Hall, 2015. "Econometricians Have Their Moments: GMM at 32," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 91(S1), pages 1-24, June.
  226. David H. Romer & Christina D. Romer, 2000. "Federal Reserve Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 429-457, June.
  227. Frederic S. Mishkin & Adam S. Posen, 1997. "Inflation targeting: lessons from four countries," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 3(Aug), pages 9-110.
  228. Phillips, Peter C B & McFarland, James W & McMahon, Patrick C, 1996. "Robust Tests of Forward Exchange Market Efficiency with Empirical Evidence from the 1920s," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 1-22, Jan.-Feb..
  229. Craig Burnside & Mario Cerrato & Zhekai Zhang, 2018. "Foreign exchange order fl ow as a risk factor," Working Papers 2018_04, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  230. Bekaert, Geert & Wei, Min & Xing, Yuhang, 2007. "Uncovered interest rate parity and the term structure," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1038-1069, October.
  231. Lars Peter Hansen & Robert J. Hodrick, 1983. "Risk Averse Speculation in the Forward Foreign Exchange Market: An Econometric Analysis of Linear Models," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 113-152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  232. W A Razzak, 1998. "The forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis in inflation-targeting regimes," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/3, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, revised Aug 1999.
  233. Petko Kalev & Brett Inder, 2006. "The information content of the term structure of interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 33-45.
  234. Hirukawa, Masayuki, 2023. "Robust Covariance Matrix Estimation in Time Series: A Review," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 36-61.
  235. Ito, Takatoshi, 1988. "Use of (Time-Domain) Vector Autoregressions to Test Uncovered Interest Parity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(2), pages 296-305, May.
  236. Imad A. Moosa, 2015. "The random walk versus unbiased efficiency: can we separate the wheat from the chaff?," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 251-279, October.
  237. Boudoukh, Jacob & Israel, Ronen & Richardson, Matthew, 2022. "Biases in long-horizon predictive regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 937-969.
  238. Michael L. Mussa, 1984. "The Theory of Exchange Rate Determination," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 13-78, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  239. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Discount Rates," NBER Working Papers 16972, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  240. Gourio, François & Siemer, Michael & Verdelhan, Adrien, 2013. "International risk cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 471-484.
  241. Engel, Charles & Rodrigues, Anthony P, 1989. "Tests of International CAPM with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(2), pages 119-138, April-Jun.
  242. Nihar Shah, 2022. "Doubly heterogeneous monetary spillovers," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 126-150, August.
  243. repec:zbw:bofitp:2005_006 is not listed on IDEAS
  244. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2019. "iCurrency?," Papers 1911.01272, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2019.
  245. Shively, Philip A., 2000. "Stationary time-varying risk premia in forward foreign exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 273-288, April.
  246. Cheong, Calvin W.H. & Sinnakkannu, Jothee & Ramasamy, Sockalingam, 2017. "On the predictability of carry trade returns: The case of the Chinese Yuan," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 358-376.
  247. Oliver Linton & Anisha Ghosh, 2007. "Consistent Estimation of the Risk-Return Tradeoff in the Presence of Measurement Error," FMG Discussion Papers dp605, Financial Markets Group.
  248. Warren J. Tease, 1988. "Speculative Efficiency and the Exchange Rate: Some Evidence Since the Float," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 64(1), pages 2-13, March.
  249. Brent Bundick, 2007. "Do federal funds futures need adjustment for excess returns? a state-dependent approach," Research Working Paper RWP 07-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  250. Baillie, Richard T. & Kim, Kun Ho, 2018. "Choices between OLS with robust inference and feasible GLS in time series regressions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 218-221.
  251. Levine, Ross, 1989. "The pricing of forward exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 163-179, June.
  252. Campbell, John Y., 2001. "Why long horizons? A study of power against persistent alternatives," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 459-491, December.
  253. van Binsbergen, Jules & Hueskes, Wouter & Koijen, Ralph & Vrugt, Evert, 2013. "Equity yields," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 503-519.
    • Jules H. van Binsbergen & Wouter Hueskes & Ralph Koijen & Evert B. Vrugt, 2011. "Equity Yields," NBER Working Papers 17416, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  254. Anil Kumar Sharma & Anujit Mitra, 2007. "What Drives Forward Premia in Indian Forex Market?," Working Papers id:795, eSocialSciences.
  255. Diamandis, Panayiotis F. & Georgoutsos, Dimitris A. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2008. "Testing the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis during the 1920s," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 358-373, October.
  256. Thompson, Samuel B., 2011. "Simple formulas for standard errors that cluster by both firm and time," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 1-10, January.
  257. Julliard, Christian, 2007. "Labor income risk and asset returns," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 4811, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  258. Tarek A Hassan & Rui C Mano, 2019. "Forward and Spot Exchange Rates in a Multi-Currency World," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(1), pages 397-450.
  259. Colin R. McKenzie & Michael McAleer & Len Gill, 1999. "Simple Procedures for Testing Autoregressive Versus Moving Average Errors in Regression Models," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 50(3), pages 239-252, September.
  260. Menzie Chinn & Jeffrey Frankel, 1991. "Patterns in Exchange Rate Forecasts for 25 Currencies," NBER Working Papers 3807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  261. Katarzyna Anna Czech, & Adam Waszkowski, 2012. "Foreign Exchange Market Efficiency. Empirical Results For The Usd/Eur Market," "e-Finanse", University of Information Technology and Management, Institute of Financial Research and Analysis, vol. 8(3), pages 1-9, October.
  262. Robin Greenwood & Dimitri Vayanos, 2014. "Bond Supply and Excess Bond Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(3), pages 663-713.
  263. Zsolt Darvas & Gábor Rappai & Zoltán Schepp, 2006. "Uncovering Yield Parity: A new insight into the UIP puzzle through the stationarity of long maturity forward rates," DNB Working Papers 098, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  264. Sharon Kozicki & P. A. Tinsley, 2012. "Effective Use of Survey Information in Estimating the Evolution of Expected Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(1), pages 145-169, February.
  265. Gulzar Khan & Adiqa Kiani & Ather Maqsood Ahmed, 2017. "Globalization, Endogenous Oil Price Shocks and Chinese Economic Activity," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 22(2), pages 39-64, July-Dec.
  266. Tingting Cheng & Jiti Gao & Oliver Linton, 2019. "Nonparametric Predictive Regressions for Stock Return Prediction," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 4/19, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  267. H. Holly Wang & Bingfan Ke, 2005. "Efficiency tests of agricultural commodity futures markets in China," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 49(2), pages 125-141, June.
  268. Xiu Xu & Cathy Yi-Hsuan Chen & Wolfgang Karl Härdle, 2019. "Dynamic credit default swap curves in a network topology," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(10), pages 1705-1726, October.
  269. West, Kenneth D., 1997. "Another heteroskedasticity- and autocorrelation-consistent covariance matrix estimator," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1-2), pages 171-191.
  270. Adrien Verdelhan, 2010. "A Habit‐Based Explanation of the Exchange Rate Risk Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 123-146, February.
  271. Raymond C. W. Leung & Yu-Man Tam, 2021. "Statistical Arbitrage Risk Premium by Machine Learning," Papers 2103.09987, arXiv.org.
  272. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. "Time-Varying Volatility and the Dynamic Behavior of the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 336-349, August.
  273. L. Spierdijk & J.A. Bikker, 2012. "Mean Reversion in Stock Prices: Implications for Long-Term Investors," Working Papers 12-07, Utrecht School of Economics.
  274. Atanasov, Victoria, 2021. "Unemployment and aggregate stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
  275. Rich, R W & Raymond, J E & Butler, J S, 1992. "The Relationship between Forecast Dispersion and Forecast Uncertainty: Evidence from a Survey Data-ARCH Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(2), pages 131-148, April-Jun.
  276. Longstaff, Francis A., 2000. "The term structure of very short-term rates: New evidence for the expectations hypothesis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 397-415, December.
  277. Stefano Giglio & Bryan Kelly & Serhiy Kozak, 2024. "Equity Term Structures without Dividend Strips Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(6), pages 4143-4196, December.
  278. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert & Wei, Min, 2007. "Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1163-1212, May.
  279. Ian Dew-Becker, 2024. "Real-time forward-looking skewness over the business cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 54, October.
  280. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Lahiani, Amine & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2013. "On the short- and long-run efficiency of energy and precious metal markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 832-844.
  281. Spierdijk, Laura & Bikker, Jacob A. & van den Hoek, Pieter, 2012. "Mean reversion in international stock markets: An empirical analysis of the 20th century," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 228-249.
  282. Dionysia Dionysiou, 2015. "Choosing Among Alternative Long-Run Event-Study Techniques," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 158-198, February.
  283. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Hélène Raymond, 1996. "Les erreurs de prévision de change ont-elles des caractéristiques hétérogènes ?," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 125(4), pages 137-157.
  284. Christian Henn & Brad McDonald, 2014. "Crisis Protectionism: The Observed Trade Impact," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 62(1), pages 77-118, April.
  285. Chang‐Che Wu & MeiChi Huang & Chih‐Chiang Wu, 2021. "The role of asymmetry and dynamics in carry trade and general financial markets," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 331-353, May.
  286. Becker, Ralf & Clements, Adam E. & McClelland, Andrew, 2009. "The jump component of S&P 500 volatility and the VIX index," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1033-1038, June.
  287. Hanno Lustig & Nikolai Roussanov & Adrien Verdelhan, 2011. "Common Risk Factors in Currency Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(11), pages 3731-3777.
  288. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Swaroop, Vinaya & Heng-fu, Zou, 1996. "The composition of public expenditure and economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 313-344, April.
  289. Michael R. Darby, 1983. "Monetary Policy in the Large Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 1127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  290. Yoshio Nozawa, 2014. "What Drives the Cross-Section of Credit Spreads?: A Variance Decomposition Approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-62, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  291. Bauer, Gregory H. & Vorkink, Keith, 2011. "Forecasting multivariate realized stock market volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 93-101, January.
  292. Jianfeng Yu, 2011. "A sentiment-based explanation of the forward premium puzzle," Globalization Institute Working Papers 90, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  293. Ian Martin, 2017. "What is the Expected Return on the Market?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(1), pages 367-433.
  294. Chortareas, Georgios & Jitmaneeroj, Boonlert & Wood, Andrew, 2012. "Forecast rationality and monetary policy frameworks: Evidence from UK interest rate forecasts," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 209-231.
  295. Wagner, Christian, 2012. "Risk-premia, carry-trade dynamics, and economic value of currency speculation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1195-1219.
  296. Guy Meredith & Menzie D. Chinn, 1998. "Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Rate Parity," NBER Working Papers 6797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  297. Derek Bond & Michael J. Harrison & Niall Hession & Edward J. O'Brien, 2006. "Some Empirical Observations on the Forward Exchange Rate Anomaly," Trinity Economics Papers tep2006, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  298. Thomas Chiang & Thomas Hindelang, 1988. "Forward rate, spot rate and risk premium: An empirical analysis," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 124(1), pages 74-88, March.
  299. Becker, Ralf & Clements, Adam E. & White, Scott I., 2006. "On the informational efficiency of S&P500 implied volatility," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 139-153, August.
  300. Matthew Richardson & James H. Stock, 1990. "Drawing Inferences From Statistics Based on Multi-Year Asset Returns," NBER Working Papers 3335, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  301. Kate Phylaktis & David Blake, 1993. "The fisher hypothesis: Evidence from three high inflation economies," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 129(3), pages 591-599, September.
  302. Christoffersen, Peter & Pan, Xuhui (Nick), 2018. "Oil volatility risk and expected stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 5-26.
  303. Fang, Xiang & Liu, Yang, 2021. "Volatility, intermediaries, and exchange rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 217-233.
  304. Gianluigi Ferrucci, 2003. "Empirical determinants of emerging market economies' sovereign bond spreads," Bank of England working papers 205, Bank of England.
  305. Kraft, Holger & Meyer-Wehmann, André & Seifried, Frank Thomas, 2022. "Endogenous habits and equilibrium asset prices," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 279-300.
  306. Simon Price & Christoph Schleicher, 2006. "Returns to equity, investment and Q: evidence from the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 310, Bank of England.
  307. Thomas Nitschka, 2009. "Momentum in stock market returns, risk premia on foreign currencies and international financial integration," IEW - Working Papers 405, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
  308. Mahdavi, Mahnaz, 1997. "A Bayesian approach to foreign exchange forecasting," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 15-31.
  309. David Harris & Hsein Kew, 2014. "Portmanteau Autocorrelation Tests Under Q-Dependence And Heteroskedasticity," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 203-217, May.
  310. C. R. McKenzie & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Comparing Tests of Autoregressive Versus Moving Average Errors in Regression Models Using Bahadur's Asymptotic Relative Efficiency," ISER Discussion Paper 0537, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  311. Chinn, Menzie D., 2006. "The (partial) rehabilitation of interest rate parity in the floating rate era: Longer horizons, alternative expectations, and emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 7-21, February.
  312. Narayana Kocherlakota & Luigi Pistaferri, 2008. "Household Heterogeneity and Asset Trade: Resolving the Equity Premium Puzzle in Three Countries," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000001886, UCLA Department of Economics.
  313. Sam Nasypbek & Scheherazade S Rehman, 2011. "Explaining the returns of active currency managers," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Portfolio and risk management for central banks and sovereign wealth funds, volume 58, pages 211-256, Bank for International Settlements.
  314. Chunsheng Zhou, "undated". "Stock Market Fluctuations and the Term Structure," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1996-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 04 Dec 2019.
  315. Sarno, Lucio & Schneider, Paul & Wagner, Christian, 2012. "Properties of foreign exchange risk premiums," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 279-310.
  316. Poghosyan Tigran, 2012. "Determinants of the Foreign Exchange Risk Premium in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 7(3), pages 1-26, May.
  317. Robert E. Cumby & Maurice Obstfeld, 1980. "Exchange-Rate Expectations and Nominal Interest Differentials: A Test ofthe Fisher Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 0537, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  318. Bing Han, 2004. "Is the forward premium puzzle universal?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 131-134.
  319. A. Tegene & F. Kuchler, 1993. "A Regression Test Of The Present Value Model Of Us Farmland Prices," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 135-143, January.
  320. Simpson, Marc W. & Grossmann, Axel, 2014. "An examination of the forward prediction error of U.S. dollar exchange rates and how they are related to bid-ask spreads, purchasing power parity disequilibria, and forward premium asymmetry," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 221-238.
  321. Jeeman Jung & Robert J. Shiller, 2002. "One Simple Test of Samuelson's Dictum for the Stock Market," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1386, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  322. Lukas Kremens & Ian Martin, 2019. "The Quanto Theory of Exchange Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(3), pages 810-843, March.
  323. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2007. "The Cross Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 89-117, March.
  324. Abraham, Abraham, 1999. "Interest rate dynamics and speculative trading in a fixed exchange rate system," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 213-222, June.
  325. Soo-Bin Park, 1999. "A Test of The Market Efficiency Hypothesis with An Application to Canadian Treasury Bill Yields," Carleton Economic Papers 99-03, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
  326. Huisman, R. & Mahieu, R.J., 2007. "Revisiting Uncovered Interest Rate Parity: Switching Between UIP and the Random Walk," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2007-001-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
  327. Bofinger, Peter & Schmidt, Robert, 2004. "Should One Rely on Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts? An Empirical Analysis of Professional Forecasts for the ?/US$ Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 4235, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  328. Adrien Verdelhan & Hanno Lustig, 2016. "Does Incomplete Spanning in International Financial Markets Help to Explain Exchange Rates?," 2016 Meeting Papers 1183, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  329. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
  330. Ali M. Fatemi & Amir Tavakkol, 1992. "Forward Risk Premia And The Maturity Of Contracts: A Note," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(1), pages 93-97, September.
  331. Inci, Ahmet Can, 2006. "Co-integrating currencies and yield differentials," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 159-175.
  332. Craig Burnside & Mario Cerrato & Zhekai Zhang, 2023. "Foreign exchange order flow as a risk factor," Working Papers 2023_03, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  333. Wolff, Christian & Verschoor, Willem F C & Jongen, Ron & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2008. "Dispersion of Beliefs in the Foreign Exchange Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 6738, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  334. Donald Freeman, 1998. "Unit roots in the presence of moving average errors: tests of consumer price inflation," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(9), pages 577-581.
  335. de Brouwer,Gordon, 1999. "Financial Integration in East Asia," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521651486, November.
  336. Nucera, Federico & Valente, Giorgio, 2013. "Carry trades and the performance of currency hedge funds," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 407-425.
  337. Tzavalis, Elias & Wickens, M. R., 1996. "Forecasting inflation from the term structure," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 103-122, May.
  338. Gangopadhyay, Partha & Reinganum, Marc R., 1996. "Interpreting mean reversion in stock returns," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 377-394.
  339. Ames, Matthew & Bagnarosa, Guillaume & Peters, Gareth W., 2017. "Violations of uncovered interest rate parity and international exchange rate dependences," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PA), pages 162-187.
  340. Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2001. "Applications of Generalized Method of Moments Estimation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 87-100, Fall.
  341. Andolfatto, David & Hendry, Scott & Moran, Kevin, 2008. "Are inflation expectations rational?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 406-422, March.
  342. Brown, Craig R. & Cyree, Ken B. & Griffiths, Mark D. & Winters, Drew B., 2008. "Further analysis of the expectations hypothesis using very short-term rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 600-613, April.
  343. J.D. Hollingworth, 1997. "Leading Indicators of Australian Recessions: Part 2," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 97-17, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  344. Levine, Ross, 1989. "An International Arbitrage Pricing Model with PPP Deviations," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 27(4), pages 587-599, October.
  345. Sonia Pangusión Espinosa., "undated". "Testing Uncovered Interest Rate Parity: The Spanish case," Studies on the Spanish Economy 128, FEDEA.
  346. Bilson, John F O, 1981. "The "Speculative Efficiency" Hypothesis," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(3), pages 435-451, July.
  347. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2008:i:3:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
  348. Richard C. Marston & Guido Carli & Jacques Attali & John R. Petty & Robert Solomon, 1988. "Exchange Rate Coordination," NBER Chapters, in: International Economic Cooperation, pages 79-166, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  349. John F. O. Bilson, 1981. "Profitability and Stability in International Currency Markets," NBER Working Papers 0664, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  350. Stephen Taylor & Ming Fang, 2018. "Unbiased weighted variance and skewness estimators for overlapping returns," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 154(1), pages 1-8, December.
  351. Sanders, Dwight R. & Garcia, Philip & Manfredo, Mark R., 2008. "Information Content in Deferred Futures Prices: Live Cattle and Hogs," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 33(1), pages 1-12, April.
  352. Smith, Jeremy & Yadav, Sanjay, 1996. "A comparison of alternative covariance matrices for models with over-lapping observations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 813-823, October.
  353. Wenliang Guo, 2020. "Currency Regimes, Volatility Risks, and Carry Trades: The Option Value of Government Currency Intervention in Emerging Markets," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 10(3), pages 1-4.
  354. Guo, Wei & Chen, Zhongfei & Šević, Aleksandar, 2021. "The political pressure from the US upon RMB exchange rate," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
  355. repec:gla:glaewp:2023-03 is not listed on IDEAS
  356. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
  357. M. Isabel Martínez-Serna & Eliseo Navarro-Arribas, 2002. "El modelo de McCallum. Evidencia empírica en la estructura temporal de los tipos de interés española," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 26(2), pages 323-357, May.
  358. Rahim Loufir & Catherine Bruno & Pascal Jacquinot, 1992. "L'efficience et la formation des anticipations sur le marché des changes," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 42(1), pages 249-282.
  359. Raj Aggarwal & Winston T. Lin & Sunil K. Mohanty, 2008. "Are Forward Exchange Rates Rational Forecasts of Future Spot Rates? An Improved Econometric Analysis for the Major Currencies," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 12(1-2), pages 1-20, March-Jun.
  360. Frenkel, Jacob A. & Mussa, Michael L., 1985. "Asset markets, exchange rates and the balance of payments," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 14, pages 679-747, Elsevier.
  361. Malini, Nair, 2005. "Arbitrage, cointegration and testing the unbiasedness hypothesis in coffee futures traded at the CSCE," MPRA Paper 37530, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  362. Ranaldo, Angelo & Somogyi, Fabricius, 2021. "Asymmetric information risk in FX markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 391-411.
  363. Hedegaard, Esben & Hodrick, Robert J., 2016. "Estimating the risk-return trade-off with overlapping data inference," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 135-145.
  364. Cho, Sungjun & Hyde, Stuart & Liu, Liu, 2022. "The yen–dollar risk premium: A story of regime shifts in bond markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
  365. Brenner, Robin J. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Arbitrage, Cointegration, and Testing the Unbiasedness Hypothesis in Financial Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(1), pages 23-42, March.
  366. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2009. "Comment on "Carry Trades and Currency Crashes"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 361-384, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  367. Frachot, Antoine, 1996. "A reexamination of the uncovered interest rate parity hypothesis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 419-437, June.
  368. Menkhoff, Lukas & Sarno, Lucio & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2009. "Carry Trades and Global FX Volatility," MPRA Paper 14728, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  369. Manolis Kavussanos & Ilias Visvikis & David Menachof, 2005. "The Unbiasedness Hypothesis in the Freight Forward Market: Evidence from Cointegration Tests," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 241-266, October.
  370. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1989. "A Multi-Country Study of the Information in the Term Structure about Future Inflation," NBER Working Papers 3125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  371. Warren J. Tease, 1988. "The Expectations Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 64(2), pages 120-127, June.
  372. Glenn Otto & Nigel Stapledon, 2017. "How Predictable? Rent Growth and Returns in Sydney and Melbourne Housing Markets," Discussion Papers 2017-01, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  373. Lloyd, S. P., 2017. "Overnight Indexed Swap Market-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Expectations," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1733, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  374. Anne Vila Wetherilt & Simon Wells, 2004. "Long-horizon equity return predictability: some new evidence for the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 244, Bank of England.
  375. Accominotti, Olivier & Chambers, David, 2016. "If You're So Smart: John Maynard Keynes and Currency Speculation in the Interwar Years," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 76(2), pages 342-386, June.
  376. John Y. Campbell & Karine Serfaty‐De Medeiros & Luis M. Viceira, 2010. "Global Currency Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 87-121, February.
  377. Boum-Jong Choe, 1990. "Commodity price forecasts and futures prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 436, The World Bank.
  378. Andrew Ang & Angela Maddaloni, 2005. "Do Demographic Changes Affect Risk Premiums? Evidence from International Data," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 341-380, January.
  379. Lan, Chunhua & Doan, Bao, 2022. "Stock price movements: Evidence from global equity markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 123-143.
  380. Philip Lowe & Alison Tarditi, 1993. "Interest Rates, Exchange Rates and Foreign Debt: Comment," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 69(1), pages 77-79, March.
  381. Cosmin Ilut, 2012. "Ambiguity Aversion: Implications for the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Puzzle," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 33-65, July.
  382. Bhatti, Razzaque H., 2014. "The existence of uncovered interest parity in the CIS countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 227-241.
  383. Neslihan Topbas, 2014. "Tests of Rationality in Turkish Foreign Exchange Market," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 14(2), pages 65-78.
  384. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
  385. Baum, Christopher F. & Barkoulas, John, 2006. "Dynamics of Intra-EMS Interest Rate Linkages," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 469-482, March.
  386. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
  387. Carlo A. Favero & Arie E. Gozluklu & Haoxi Yang, 2016. "Demographics and the Behavior of Interest Rates," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(4), pages 732-776, November.
  388. Joachim Zietz & Ghassem Homaifar, 1994. "Exchange rate uncertainty and the efficiency of the forward market for foreign exchange," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 130(3), pages 461-475, September.
  389. Chunsheng Zhou & Chang Qing, 2000. "A State-Space Model Of Short- And Long-Horizon Stock Returns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 523-544, December.
  390. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/35kgubh40v9gfpnuruelqjnptb is not listed on IDEAS
  391. Moon, Seongman & Velasco, Carlos, 2013. "Tests for m-dependence based on sample splitting methods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 173(2), pages 143-159.
  392. Jordà, Òscar & Taylor, Alan M., 2012. "The carry trade and fundamentals: Nothing to fear but FEER itself," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 74-90.
  393. González, Fernando & Launonen, Simo, 2005. "Towards European monetary integration: the evolution of currency risk premium as a measure for monetary convergence prior to the implementation of currency unions," Working Paper Series 569, European Central Bank.
  394. Ana Sequeira, 2013. "Predicting aggregate returns using valuation ratios out-of-sample," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  395. Jonathan Brogaard & Andrew Detzel, 2015. "The Asset-Pricing Implications of Government Economic Policy Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(1), pages 3-18, January.
  396. Sebastian Edwards, 1981. "Floating Excahnge Rates, Exectations and New Information," UCLA Economics Working Papers 227, UCLA Department of Economics.
  397. Cepni, Oguzhan & Emirmahmutoglu, Furkan & Guney, Ibrahim Ethem & Yilmaz, Muhammed Hasan, 2023. "Do the carry trades respond to geopolitical risks? Evidence from BRICS countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(2).
  398. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R. & Boris, Keith, 2009. "Evaluating information in multiple horizon forecasts: The DOE's energy price forecasts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 189-196.
  399. Rakovská, Zuzana, 2021. "Composite survey sentiment as a predictor of future market returns: Evidence for German equity indices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 473-495.
  400. David S. Jones & V. Vance Roley, 1982. "Rational Expectations, the Expectations Hypothesis, and Treasury Bill Yields: An Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 0869, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  401. Antonio Diez De Los Rios, 2009. "Can Affine Term Structure Models Help Us Predict Exchange Rates?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(4), pages 755-766, June.
  402. Maio, Paulo & Zeng, Ming, 2023. "On the driving forces of real exchange rates: Is the Japanese Yen different?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
  403. Daniel, Kent, 2001. "The power and size of mean reversion tests," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 493-535, December.
  404. Gerberding, Christina, 2001. "The information content of survey data on expected price developments for monetary policy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,09, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  405. Jongen, Ron & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Wolff, Christian C.P. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2012. "Explaining dispersion in foreign exchange expectations: A heterogeneous agent approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 719-735.
  406. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1988. "The Information in the Term Structure: Some Further Results," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(4), pages 307-314, October-D.
  407. M. Manzur, 1987. "How Much are Exchange Rate Forecasts Worth?," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 87-01, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  408. Clemens J. M. Kool & John A. Tatom, 1988. "International linkages in the term structure of interest rates," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 30-43.
  409. Christian Wolff, 2000. "Forward foreign exchange rates and expected future spot rates," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 371-377.
  410. Maio, Paulo & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2012. "Multifactor models and their consistency with the ICAPM," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 586-613.
  411. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
  412. Menzie D. Chinn & Guy Meredith, 2005. "Testing Uncovered Interest Parity at Short and Long Horizons during the Post-Bretton Woods Era," NBER Working Papers 11077, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  413. Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Robert Whitelaw, 2005. "The Myth of Long-Horizon Predictability," NBER Working Papers 11841, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  414. Lucjan T. Orlowski, 1995. "Recent Developments in International Currency Derivatives Market: Implications for Poland," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0055, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  415. Lee, Suzanne S. & Wang, Minho, 2020. "Tales of tails: Jumps in currency markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
  416. Dean Croushore, 1998. "Evaluating inflation forecasts," Working Papers 98-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  417. Seamus Hogan & Marianne Johnson & Thérèse Laflèche, 2001. "Core Inflation," Technical Reports 89, Bank of Canada.
  418. Christian Dunis & Pierre Lequeux, 2000. "Intraday data and hedging efficiency in interest spread trading," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(4), pages 332-352.
  419. Ruoyang Li & Alva Svoboda & Shmuel Oren, 2015. "Efficiency impact of convergence bidding in the california electricity market," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 245-284, December.
  420. Guo, Bin & Huang, Fuzhe & Li, Kai, 2022. "Time to build and bond risk premia," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
  421. Chulho Jung & K. Doroodian & Robert Albarano, 1998. "The unbiased forward rate hypothesis: a re-examination," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 567-575.
  422. Glenn D. Otto & Graham M. Voss, 2014. "Flexible inflation forecast targeting: Evidence from Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 47(2), pages 398-421, May.
  423. Schnake, Kristin N. & Karali, Berna & Dorfman, Jeffrey H., 2012. "The Informational Content of Distant-Delivery Futures Contracts," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 37(2), pages 1-15, August.
  424. Archawa Paweenawat, 2017. "The Information Content of the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Emerging Economies: The Case of Thailand," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 16(2), pages 136-150, August.
  425. Robert E. Cumby & Maurice Obstfeld, 1984. "International Interest Rate and Price Level Linkages under Flexible Exchange Rates: A Review of Recent Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 121-152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  426. Qiu, Mei & Pinfold, John F. & Rose, Lawrence C., 2011. "Predicting foreign exchange movements using historic deviations from PPP," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 485-497, October.
  427. Grisse, Christian & Nitschka, Thomas, 2015. "On financial risk and the safe haven characteristics of Swiss franc exchange rates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 153-164.
  428. Groth, Charlotta & Zampolli, Fabrizio, 2010. "Macroeconomic stability and the real interest rate: a cross-country analysis," Discussion Papers 30, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
  429. Marco Mazzoli & Christian Barducci, 2009. "Testing exchange rate efficiency: the case of euro-dollar," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 521-540.
  430. Aziz, Nusrate, 2024. "Why does uncovered interest parity fail empirically?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
  431. Kenneth A. Froot & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1986. "Interpreting Tests of Forward Discount Bias Using Survey Data on Exchange Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 1963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  432. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2008-053 is not listed on IDEAS
  433. Prat, Georges & Uctum, Remzi, 2021. "Term structure of interest rates: Modelling the risk premium using a two horizons framework," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 421-436.
  434. Hsu, Po-Hsuan & Taylor, Mark P. & Wang, Zigan & Xu, Qi, 2022. "Currency volatility and global technological innovation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
  435. Kocenda, Evzen & Poghosyan, Tigran, 2009. "Macroeconomic sources of foreign exchange risk in new EU members," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2164-2173, November.
  436. Cheng, Xu & Hansen, Bruce E., 2015. "Forecasting with factor-augmented regression: A frequentist model averaging approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(2), pages 280-293.
  437. Hodrick, Robert J. & Srivastava, Sanjay, 1987. "Foreign currency futures," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1-2), pages 1-24, February.
  438. Clarida, Richard & Davis, Josh & Pedersen, Niels, 2009. "Currency carry trade regimes: Beyond the Fama regression," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1375-1389, December.
  439. Aydanur GACENER-ATIŞ & Deniz ERER, 2019. "Effects of Capital Flows on Carry Trade Activities: The Case of TurkeyAbstract: Carry trade is described as the capital flow coming into a country based on interest rate differential. A negative chang," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 27(42).
  440. Andreas Fischer, 1989. "Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates Using Weekly Money Announcements," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 125(I), pages 43-53, March.
  441. Dimitris Kenourgios & Aristeidis Samitas, 2005. "Testing Efficiency Of The Copper Futures Market: New Evidence From London Metal Exchange," Finance 0512010, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  442. Myers, Robert J. & Oehmke, James F., 1987. "Instability and Risk as Rationales for Government Intervention in Agriculture," Staff Paper Series 200938, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
  443. Edwards, Sebastian, 1983. "Floating exchange rates, expectations and new information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 321-336.
  444. Hanno Lustig, 2005. "Investing in Foreign Currency is like Betting on your Intertemporal Marginal Rate of Substitution (joint with Adrien Verdelhan, BU, forthcoming in Papers and Proceedings JEEA)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 368, UCLA Department of Economics.
  445. Mark Grinblatt & Matti Keloharju, 2009. "Sensation Seeking, Overconfidence, and Trading Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(2), pages 549-578, April.
  446. Albert S. Kyle & Anna A. Obizhaeva & Yajun Wang, 2023. "Beliefs Aggregation and Return Predictability," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(1), pages 427-486, February.
  447. Niels Joachim Gormsen, 2021. "Time Variation of the Equity Term Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(4), pages 1959-1999, August.
  448. Pinar Ozlu, 2006. "Risk Premium and Central Bank Intervention," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 6(1), pages 65-79.
  449. Dean Croushore, 2012. "Forecast bias in two dimensions," Working Papers 12-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  450. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1991. "The term structure of interest rate differentials in a target zone : Theory and Swedish data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 87-116, August.
  451. Hurn, A Stan & Moody, Terry & Muscatelli, V Anton, 1995. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates in the London Interbank Market," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(3), pages 419-436, July.
  452. Joe Peek & Eric Rosengren & Geoffrey M. B. Tootell, 1997. "Is banking supervision central to central banking?," Working Papers 97-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  453. Koedijk, Kees G. & Wolff, Christian C. P., 1996. "Exchange rate returns, 'news', and risk premia," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 127-134, January.
  454. Henderson, Brian J. & Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Weisbach, Michael S., 2006. "World markets for raising new capital," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 63-101, October.
  455. Christian Dunis & Andre Keller, 1995. "Efficiency tests with overlapping data: an application to the currency options market," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(4), pages 345-366.
  456. repec:adr:anecst:y:1998:i:52:p:01 is not listed on IDEAS
  457. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2018. "Term structure of interest rates: modelling the risk premium using a two horizons framework," Working Papers hal-04141774, HAL.
  458. Jing-Zhi Huang & Zhan Shi, 2023. "Machine-Learning-Based Return Predictors and the Spanning Controversy in Macro-Finance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(3), pages 1780-1804, March.
  459. Jaehwan Park & Byungkwon Lim, 2018. "Testing Efficiency of the London Metal Exchange: New Evidence," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-10, March.
  460. Chaboud, Alain P. & Wright, Jonathan H., 2005. "Uncovered interest parity: it works, but not for long," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 349-362, July.
  461. Jungjin Lee & Mr. Abdul d Abiad & Mr. Prakash Kannan, 2009. "Evaluating Historical CGER Assessments: How Well Have They Predicted Subsequent Exchange Rate Movements?," IMF Working Papers 2009/032, International Monetary Fund.
  462. Esaka, Taro, 2000. "The Louvre Accord and central bank intervention: was there a target zone?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 107-126, May.
  463. Meher Manzur, 1988. "How Much Are Exchange Rate Forecasts Worth?," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 13(1), pages 93-113, June.
  464. Thomas C. Glaessner, 1982. "The modern theory of forward foreign exchange: some new consistent estimates under rational expectations," International Finance Discussion Papers 206, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  465. Mr. Shaun K. Roache & Alexander P. Attie, 2009. "Inflation Hedging for Long-Term Investors," IMF Working Papers 2009/090, International Monetary Fund.
  466. Sean Smith & Shakill Hassan, 2011. "The Rand as a Carry Trade Target: Risk, Returns and Policy Implications," Working Papers 235, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  467. Barsky, Robert B. & Mankiw, N. Gregory & Miron, Jeffrey A. & Weill, David N., 1988. "The worldwide change in the behavior of interest rates and prices in 1914," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1123-1147, June.
  468. Maio, Paulo & Philip, Dennis, 2018. "Economic activity and momentum profits: Further evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 466-482.
  469. Kurz, Mordecai & Motolese, Maurizio, 2006. "Risk Premia, diverse belief and beauty contests," MPRA Paper 247, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  470. S. M. Ahmed & M. I. Ansari, 1997. "Modelling the efficiency of the Canadian foreign exchange market: a bivariate transfer function analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 63-70.
  471. Lloyd, S. P. & Marin, E. A., 2019. "Exchange Rate Risk and Business Cycles," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1996, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  472. Barry A. Goss & S. Gulay Avsar & Siang‐Choo Chan, 1992. "Rational Expectations and Price Determination in the US Oats Market," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 68(S1), pages 16-26, December.
  473. Campbell, T. Colin & Chichernea, Doina C. & Petkevich, Alex, 2016. "Dissecting the bond profitability premium," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 102-131.
  474. Ferreira, Paulo & Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2017. "What is new about covered interest parity condition in the European Union? Evidence from fractal cross-correlation regressions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 486(C), pages 554-566.
  475. Baghestani, Hamid, 2006. "An evaluation of the professional forecasts of U.S. long-term interest rates," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 177-191.
  476. Lutzenberger, Fabian T., 2014. "The predictability of aggregate returns on commodity futures," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 120-130.
  477. Chu, Shiou-Yen, 2015. "Funding liquidity constraints and the forward premium anomaly in a DSGE model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 76-89.
  478. McDonald, A.David & Hurn, A.Stan, 1995. "Unobservable cyclical components in term premia of fixed-term financial instruments," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 403-409.
  479. Andrea Bobula & Giuseppe De Arcangelis, 1997. "Speculative bubbles and excess returns in European exchange rates. Evidence from a nonparametric approach," Working Papers in Public Economics 23, Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Roma.
  480. Michael Funke, 2005. "Inflation in Mainland China - Modelling a Roller Coaster Ride," Working Papers 152005, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  481. Eric Girard & Trevor Reid, 2010. "Cost Of Carry On Steroids: Application To Oil Futures Pricing," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 4(2), pages 153-163.
  482. Pinter, Gabor, 2018. "Macroeconomic shocks and risk premia," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 90370, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  483. Jorion, Philippe & Mishkin, Frederic, 1991. "A multicountry comparison of term-structure forecasts at long horizons," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 59-80, March.
  484. Wellmann, Dennis & Trück, Stefan, 2018. "Factors of the term structure of sovereign yield spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 56-75.
  485. Stig V. Møller & Jesper Rangvid, 2018. "Global Economic Growth and Expected Returns Around the World: The End-of-the-Year Effect," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(2), pages 573-591, February.
  486. Markos Farag, Stephen Snudden, Greg Upton, 2024. "Can Futures Prices Predict the Real Price of Primary Commodities?," LCERPA Working Papers jc0145, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis, revised 2024.
  487. Prat, Georges & Uctum, Remzi, 2013. "Modeling the horizon-dependent ex-ante risk premium in the foreign exchange market: Evidence from survey data," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 33-54.
  488. Jondeau, Eric & Ricart, Roland, 1999. "The expectations hypothesis of the term structure: tests on US, German, French, and UK Euro-rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 725-750, October.
  489. Jiang, George J. & Lu, Liangliang & Zhu, Dongming, 2014. "The information content of analyst recommendation revisions — Evidence from the Chinese stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-17.
  490. Nijman, T.E. & Palm, F.C., 1991. "Recent Developments in Modeling Volatility in Financial Data," Papers 9168, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
  491. John H. Makin, 1984. "Exchange Rates and Taxes," NBER Working Papers 1350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  492. Zhang, Yin-Fang & Ji, Shengbao, 2018. "Does infrastructure have a transitory or longer-term impact? Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 195-207.
  493. Pasquale Della Corte & Steven J. Riddiough & Lucio Sarno, 2016. "Currency Premia and Global Imbalances," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(8), pages 2161-2193.
  494. Thomas Laubach & Adam S. Posen, 1997. "Some comparative evidence on the effectiveness of inflation targeting," Research Paper 9714, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  495. Salim Darbar, 1994. "The unbiasedness of the forward exchange rate: evidence from the 1920s," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(3), pages 49-53.
  496. Choi, Jin Ho & Suh, Sangwon, 2021. "A filtered currency carry trade," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
  497. Sarno, Lucio & Schneider, Paul & Wagner, Christian, 2016. "The economic value of predicting bond risk premia," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 247-267.
  498. Tzavalis, Elias & Wickens, Michael R, 1997. "Explaining the Failures of the Term Spread Models of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 364-380, August.
  499. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1995. "Forecast evaluation and combination," Research Paper 9525, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  500. Ostry, D. A., 2023. "Tails of Foreign Exchange-at-Risk (FEaR)," Janeway Institute Working Papers 2311, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  501. Wahab, Mahmoud, 1997. "On risk, rationality and the predictive ability of European short-term adjusted yield spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 737-765, September.
  502. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2007. "Stock Return Predictability: Is it There?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(3), pages 651-707.
  503. Chiang, I-Hsuan Ethan, 2015. "Modern portfolio management with conditioning information," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 114-134.
  504. Cialenco, Igor & Protopapadakis, Aris, 2011. "Do technical trading profits remain in the foreign exchange market? Evidence from 14 currencies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 176-206, April.
  505. Dale W. Henderson, 1982. "The role of intervention policy in open economy financial policy: a macroeconomic perspective," International Finance Discussion Papers 202, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  506. Sanglim Lee, 2012. "Expected Currency Excess Returns and International Business Cycles," Working papers 2012-16, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  507. Mario Jovanovic & Tobias Zimmermann, 2008. "Stock Market Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Reaction Functions of the Federal Reserve Bank," Ruhr Economic Papers 0077, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  508. Gjolberg, Ole, 1995. "Are piglet prices rational hog price forecasts?," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 119-123, November.
  509. Rui Albuquerque & Gregory Bauer & Martin Schneider, 2004. "Characterizing Asymmetric Information in International Equity Markets," International Finance 0405005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  510. Lewis, Karen K., 1997. "Are countries with official international restrictions 'liquidity constrained'?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1079-1109, June.
  511. David E. Runkle, 1998. "Revisionist history: how data revisions distort economic policy research," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 22(Fall), pages 3-12.
  512. Thomas C. Glaessner, 1982. "Formulation and estimation of a dynamic model of exchange rate determination: an application of general method of moments techniques," International Finance Discussion Papers 208, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  513. repec:ehl:lserod:53906 is not listed on IDEAS
  514. Rinne, Kalle & Suominen, Matti, 2017. "How some bankers made a million by trading just two securities?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 304-315.
  515. Ash, J. C. K. & Smyth, D. J. & Heravi, S. M., 1997. "The accuracy of OECD forecasts of the international economy: balance of payments," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 969-987, December.
  516. Razzaque Bhatti & Imad Moosa, 1995. "An alternative approach to testing uncovered interest parity," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(12), pages 478-481.
  517. Glenn Otto & Graham Voss, 2009. "Strict and Flexible Inflation Forecast Targets: An Empirical Investigation," Department Discussion Papers 0902, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
  518. Drummond, Paulo, 1997. "Infrequent large nominal devaluations and their impact on the futures prices for freingn exchange in Brazil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 51(2), April.
  519. Eduardo José Araújo Lima & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2008. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and the Relationship between the Random Walk Hypothesis and Official Interventions," Working Papers Series 173, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  520. Barry A. Goss & S. Gulay Avsar, 2016. "Can Economists Forecast Exchange Rates? The Debate Re-Visited: The Case of the USD/GBP Market," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(1), pages 14-28, March.
  521. Patrick Richard, 2009. "Improving the accuracy of the analytical indirect inference estimator for MA models," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 2795-2802.
  522. Robert C. Feenstra & Jon D. Kendall, 1991. "Exchange Rate Volatility and International Prices," NBER Working Papers 3644, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  523. Berben, R-P. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 1998. "Does the absence of cointegration explain the typical findings in long horizon regressions?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9814, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  524. Cosme Vodounou, 1998. "Inférence fondée sur les statistiques des rendements de long terme," CIRANO Working Papers 98s-20, CIRANO.
  525. Ahmed, Shamim & Valente, Giorgio, 2015. "Understanding the price of volatility risk in carry trades," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 118-129.
  526. Winston T. Lin, 2005. "Currency forecasting based on an error components-seemingly unrelated nonlinear regression model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(8), pages 593-605.
  527. Huisman, R. & Mahieu, R.J. & Mulder, A., 2007. "Do Exchange Rates Move in Line With Uncovered Interest Parity?," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2007-012-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
  528. Dahlquist, Magnus & Pénasse, Julien, 2022. "The missing risk premium in exchange rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 697-715.
  529. Bong-Chan, Kho, 1996. "Time-varying risk premia, volatility, and technical trading rule profits: Evidence from foreign currency futures markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 249-290, June.
  530. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2012. "Modeling the horizon-dependent risk premium in the forex market: evidence from survey data," Working Papers hal-04141062, HAL.
  531. Eric Jacquier & Cedric Okou, 2013. "Disentangling Continuous Volatility from Jumps in Long-Run Risk-Return Relationships," CIRANO Working Papers 2013s-14, CIRANO.
  532. Kumar, Vikram, 2020. "Liquidity shocks: A new solution to the forward premium puzzle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 445-454.
  533. Qiao, Fang & Xu, Lai & Zhang, Xiaoyan & Zhou, Hao, 2024. "Variance risk premiums in emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
  534. Londono, Juan M. & Zhou, Hao, 2017. "Variance risk premiums and the forward premium puzzle," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 415-440.
  535. Helen Popper, 1995. "Term premia comovement in German, Japanese, and U.S. domestic markets," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 49-62, January.
  536. Egorov, Alexei V. & Li, Haitao & Ng, David, 2011. "A tale of two yield curves: Modeling the joint term structure of dollar and euro interest rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(1), pages 55-70, May.
  537. Volkman, David A. & Wohar, Mark E., 1996. "Abnormal profits and relative strength in mutual fund returns," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 101-116.
  538. Moran, Kevin & Nono, Simplice Aimé, 2018. "Gradual learning about shocks and the forward premium puzzle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 79-100.
  539. Mr. Prakash Kannan, 2008. "Perspectives on High Real Interest Rates in Turkey," IMF Working Papers 2008/251, International Monetary Fund.
  540. Schrimpf, Andreas & Wang, Qingwei, 2010. "A reappraisal of the leading indicator properties of the yield curve under structural instability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 836-857, October.
  541. Can Gao & Ian W. R. Martin, 2021. "Volatility, Valuation Ratios, and Bubbles: An Empirical Measure of Market Sentiment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 3211-3254, December.
  542. Marc Tomljanovich, 2007. "Does Central Bank Transparency Impact Financial Markets? A Cross‐Country Econometric Analysis," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 73(3), pages 791-813, January.
  543. Jorion, Philippe, 1996. "Does real interest parity hold at longer maturities?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-2), pages 105-126, February.
  544. Söhnke M. Bartram & Harald Lohre & Peter F. Pope & Ananthalakshmi Ranganathan, 2021. "Navigating the factor zoo around the world: an institutional investor perspective," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 91(5), pages 655-703, July.
  545. Ross Guest & Alan McLean, 1998. "New evidence on the expectations theory of the term structure of Australian Commonwealth Government Treasury yields," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 81-87.
  546. José Saúl Lizondo, 1983. "Interest Differential and Covered Arbitrage," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Policies and the World Capital Market: The Problem of Latin American Countries, pages 221-244, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  547. Wenxin Du & Carolin E. Pflueger & Jesse Schreger, 2020. "Sovereign Debt Portfolios, Bond Risks, and the Credibility of Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(6), pages 3097-3138, December.
  548. Michael Weber, 2014. "Nominal Rigidities and Asset Pricing," 2014 Meeting Papers 53, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  549. Oscar Varela, 1999. "Futures and realized cash or settle prices for gold, silver, and copper," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 8(2), pages 121-138, September.
  550. Peter Feldhütter & Christian Heyerdahl-Larsen & Philipp Illeditsch, 2018. "Risk Premia and Volatilities in a Nonlinear Term Structure Model [Quadratic term structure models: theory and evidence]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(1), pages 337-380.
  551. Anna Naszodi & Csaba Csavas & Daniel Felcser, 2016. "Which Aspects of Central Bank Transparency Matter? A Comprehensive Analysis of the Effect of Transparency of Survey Forecasts," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(4), pages 147-192, December.
  552. Eduardo Borensztein & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 236-261, June.
  553. V. Vance Roley, 1986. "U.S. Monetary Policy Regimes and U.S.-Japan Financial Relations," NBER Working Papers 1858, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  554. Fatma Pinar Erdem & Utku Bora Geyikci, 2018. "Local, Regional and Global FX Shock Indices in Emerging Markets," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1812, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  555. Richard Heaney, 1995. "A Test of the Cost of Carry Relationship using 90†Day Bank Accepted Bills and the All Ordinaries Share Price Index," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 20(1), pages 75-104, June.
  556. Shang-Jin Wei & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1991. "Are Option-Implied Forecasts of Exchange Rate Volatility Excessively Variable?," NBER Working Papers 3910, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  557. Andres Vesilind, 2006. "Profitability of simple trading strategies exploiting the forward premium bias in foreign exchange markets and the time premium in yield curves," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2006-04, Bank of Estonia, revised 12 Oct 2006.
  558. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth A. Froot, 1985. "Using Survey Data to Test Some Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 1672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  559. Andrew McKenzie & Matthew Holt, 2002. "Market efficiency in agricultural futures markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(12), pages 1519-1532.
  560. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lundblad, Christian, 2006. "Growth volatility and financial liberalization," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 370-403, April.
  561. Durlauf, Steven N. & Hall, Robert E., 1988. "Bounds on the Variances of Specification Errors in Models with Expectations," CEPR Publications 244420, Stanford University, Center for Economic Policy Research.
  562. Adam Klug & Carmel Nadav, 1999. "On the predictive power of the term structure during the 1930s," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(9), pages 577-580.
  563. Song, Pengcheng & Ma, Xinxin & Zhang, Xuan & Zhao, Qin, 2021. "The influence of the SARS pandemic on asset prices," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
  564. Gurdip Bakshi & Mario Cerrato & John Crosby, 2016. "Studying the Implications of Consumption and Asset Return Data for Stochastic Discount Factors in Incomplete International Economies," Working Papers 2017_01, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  565. Kaul, Aditya & Kayacetin, Nuri Volkan, 2017. "Flight-to-quality, economic fundamentals, and stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 162-175.
  566. Erik Hjalmarsson, 2006. "Inference in Long-Horizon Regressions," International Finance Discussion Papers 853, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  567. Doskov, Nikolay & Swinkels, Laurens, 2015. "Empirical evidence on the currency carry trade, 1900–2012," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 370-389.
  568. Sjaastad, Larry A. & Scacciavillani, Fabio, 1996. "The price of gold and the exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 879-897, December.
  569. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2012. "The Effectiveness of Alternative Monetary Policy Tools in a Zero Lower Bound Environment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(s1), pages 3-46, February.
  570. Karnaukh, Nina, 2016. "Currency Strategies and Sovereign Ratings," Working Papers on Finance 1620, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
  571. Pekka Ahtiala & Yair E. Orgler, 1999. "The Value of Invoice Currency Choice in a Volatile Exchange Rate Environment," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 3(1), pages 1-17, March.
  572. Coelho dos Santos, Marcelo Bittencourt & Klotzle, Marcelo Cabus & Figueiredo Pinto, Antonio Carlos, 2016. "Evidence of risk premiums in emerging market carry trade currencies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 103-115.
  573. Kiani, Khurshid M., 2013. "Can signal extraction help predict risk premia in foreign exchange rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 926-939.
  574. Adams, Zeno & Glück, Thorsten, 2015. "Financialization in commodity markets: A passing trend or the new normal?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 93-111.
  575. Adam, Tim R. & Fernando, Chitru S., 2006. "Hedging, speculation, and shareholder value," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 283-309, August.
  576. Hakkio, Craig S., 1984. "A re-examination of purchasing power parity : A multi-country and multi-period study," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3-4), pages 265-277, November.
  577. Popov, Alexander, 2017. "Evidence on finance and economic growth," Working Paper Series 2115, European Central Bank.
  578. Rojo-Suárez, Javier & Alonso-Conde, Ana B. & Lago-Balsalobre, Rubén, 2024. "Industry bubbles and unexpected consumption shocks: A cross-sectional explanation of stock returns under recursive preferences," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 1156-1169.
  579. Havenner, Arthur & Modjtahedi, Bagher, 1986. "Foreign Exchange Rates: A Multiple Currency And Maturity Analysis," Working Papers 225804, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
  580. Barry A. Goss & Jerome L. Stein, 1992. "Introduction," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 68(S1), pages 1-9, December.
  581. Domian, Dale L. & Louton, David A., 1995. "Business cycle asymmetry and the stock market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 451-466.
  582. Bruce E. Hansen & Ananth Seshadri, 2014. "Uncovering the Relationship between Real Interest Rates and Economic Growth," Working Papers wp303, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
  583. Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2005. "Empirical exchange rate models and currency risk: some evidence from density forecasts," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 363-385, March.
  584. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2010. "Testing the hypothesis of market efficiency in the Taiwan-US forward exchange market since 1990," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(1), pages 121-132.
  585. Jovanovic Mario & Zimmermann Tobias, 2010. "Stock Market Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Reaction Functions of the Federal Reserve Bank," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-19, July.
  586. McCurdy, Thomas H. & Morgan, Ieuan G., 1987. "Tests of the martingale hypothesis for foreign currency futures with time-varying volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 131-148.
  587. Michael Mussa, 1993. "Discussion of 'Recent Thinking About Exchange Rate Determination and Policy'," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Adrian Blundell-Wignall (ed.),The Exchange Rate, International Trade and the Balance of Payments, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  588. Brandt, Michael W. & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2002. "Simulated likelihood estimation of diffusions with an application to exchange rate dynamics in incomplete markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 161-210, February.
  589. Martin Cincibuch & David Vavra, 2004. "Testing for the uncovered interest parity using distributions implied by FX options," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 16, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  590. Boons, Martijn, 2016. "State variables, macroeconomic activity, and the cross section of individual stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 489-511.
  591. Bertille Antoine & Eric Renault, 2012. "Efficient Inference with Poor Instruments: a General Framework," Discussion Papers dp12-04, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
  592. Hsu, Po-Hsuan, 2009. "Technological innovations and aggregate risk premiums," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 264-279, November.
  593. Grossmann, Axel & Simpson, Marc W., 2015. "Bid-ask spreads, deviations from PPP and the forward prediction error: The case of the British pound and the euro," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 124-139.
  594. Taylor, Mark P. & Wang, Zigan & Xu, Qi, 2021. "The real effects of exchange rate risk on corporate investment: International evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
  595. Ariff, Mohamed & Zarei, Alireza & Bhatti, M. Ishaq, 2021. "Monitoring exchange rate instability in 12 selected Islamic economies," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
  596. Lustig, Hanno & Roussanov, Nikolai & Verdelhan, Adrien, 2014. "Countercyclical currency risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 527-553.
  597. Rehim Kılıç, 2023. "Uncovered interest rate, overshooting, and predictability reversal puzzles in an emerging economy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-074, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  598. Bernal Raquel, 2003. "Monetary Policy Rules in Colombia," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, March.
  599. Benbouziane, Mohamed & Benamar, Abdelhak, 2006. "The Purchasing Power Parity in The Maghreb Countries : A Nonlinear Perspective," MPRA Paper 13853, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2007.
  600. Joseph Atta-Mensah, 1996. "A Modified P*-Model of Inflation Based on M1," Staff Working Papers 96-15, Bank of Canada.
  601. Chinn, Menzie David & Meredith, Guy, 2000. "Interest parity at short and long horizons," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2000,44, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  602. Christopher C. Geczy & Bernadette A. Minton & Catherine Schrand, "undated". "Choices Among Alternative Risk Management Strategies: Evidence from the Natural Gas Industry," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 28-99, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  603. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Ou, Yangguoyi, 2008. "Yield curve factors, term structure volatility, and bond risk premia," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2008-053, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
  604. Jamie Armour, 2006. "An Evaluation of Core Inflation Measures," Staff Working Papers 06-10, Bank of Canada.
  605. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1984. "The Real Interest Rate: A Multi-Country Empirical Study," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 17(2), pages 283-311, May.
  606. Ross Levine, 1988. "The forward exchange rate bias: a new explanation," International Finance Discussion Papers 338, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  607. Tim Bollerslev & Robert J. Hodrick, 1992. "Financial Market Efficiency Tests," NBER Working Papers 4108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  608. repec:zbw:rwirep:0077 is not listed on IDEAS
  609. Morris Goldstein & Michael Mussa, 1993. "The integration of world capital markets," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 245-330.
  610. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2016-059 is not listed on IDEAS
  611. Della Corte, Pasquale & Jeanneret, Alexandre & Patelli, Ella D.S., 2023. "A credit-based theory of the currency risk premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(3), pages 473-496.
  612. Yung, Julieta, 2021. "Can interest rate factors explain exchange rate fluctuations?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 34-56.
  613. Jeeman Jung & Robert Shiller, 2002. "One Simple Test of Samuelson's Dictum for the Stock Market," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm315, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Nov 2003.
  614. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2016. "Do markets learn to rationally expect US interest rates? Evidence from survey data," Working Papers hal-04141591, HAL.
  615. Natalya Delcoure & John T. Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum & Atreya Chakraborty, 2000. "The Forward Rate Unbiasedness Hypothesis Revisited: Evidence from a New Test," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 464, Boston College Department of Economics.
  616. Manela, Asaf & Moreira, Alan, 2017. "News implied volatility and disaster concerns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 137-162.
  617. Piet Sercu & Martina Vandebroek & Tom Vinaimont, 2008. "Thin‐Trading Effects in Beta: Bias v. Estimation Error," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(9‐10), pages 1196-1219, November.
  618. Berg, Kimberly A. & Mark, Nelson C., 2018. "Global macro risks in currency excess returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 300-315.
  619. Xu Cheng & Bruce E. Hansen, 2012. "Forecasting with Factor-Augmented Regression: A Frequentist Model Averaging Approach, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 13-061, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 03 Sep 2013.
  620. Didier Borowski & Carine Bouthevillain & Catherine Doz & Pierre Malgrange & Pierre Morin, 1991. "Vingt ans de prévisions macro-économiques : une évaluation sur données françaises," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 99(3), pages 43-65.
  621. Mohamed Ariff & Alireza Zarei, 2018. "Sustainable Development and Currency Exchange Rate Behavior," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 17(3), pages 148-173, Fall.
  622. Hjalmarsson, Erik, 2005. "On the Predictability of Global Stock Returns," Working Papers in Economics 161, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
  623. Croitoru, Benjamin & Jiao, Feng & Lu, Lei, 2024. "Nominal exchange rates and heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
  624. Dwight R. Sanders & Mark R. Manfredo, 2008. "Multiple horizons and information in USDA production forecasts," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 55-66.
  625. S.P.G. Teo, 1990. "The Efficiency of the Australian Foreign Exchange Market," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 90-25, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  626. repec:oup:qjecon:v:132:y:2016:i:1:p:367-433. is not listed on IDEAS
  627. Baghestani, Hamid, 2006. "Federal reserve vs. private forecasts of real net exports," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 349-353, June.
  628. Joni Kokkonen & Matti Suominen, 2015. "Hedge Funds and Stock Market Efficiency," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(12), pages 2890-2904, December.
  629. Phengpis, Chanwit & Nguyen, Vanthuan, 2009. "Policy coordination and risk premium in foreign exchange markets for major EU currencies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 47-62, February.
  630. Peter N. Ireland, 1996. "Long-term interest rates and inflation: a Fisherian approach," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Win, pages 21-36.
  631. Konuki, Testuya, 1999. "Measuring noise in exchange rate models1," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 255-270, August.
  632. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1982. "Can We Sterilize? Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(2), pages 45-50, May.
  633. Verschoor, Willem F. C. & Wolff, Christian C. P., 2001. "Scandinavian forward discount bias risk premia," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 65-72, October.
  634. Baillie, Richard T. & Kim, Kun Ho, 2015. "Was it risk? Or was it fundamentals? Explaining excess currency returns with kernel smoothed regressions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 99-111.
  635. M. Manzur, 1988. "How Much are Exchange Rate Forecasts Worth?," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 88-18, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  636. Christopher Balding & Andros Gregoriou & Domenico Tarzia & Xiao Zhang, 2024. "Carry Trade Dynamics Under Capital Controls: The Case of China," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 31(4), pages 1065-1085, December.
  637. Chunsheng Zhou, "undated". "Forecasting Long- and Short-Horizon Stock Returns in a Unified Framework," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1996-04, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 04 Dec 2019.
  638. Stephen J. Turnovsky & Katrina M. Ball, 1983. "Covered Interest Parity and Speculative Efficiency: Some Empirical Evidence for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 59(3), pages 271-280, September.
  639. Roberts, Mark A., 1995. "Imperfect information: Some implications for modelling the exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 375-383, May.
  640. Benassy-Quere, Agnes & Larribeau, Sophie & MacDonald, Ronald, 2003. "Models of exchange rate expectations: how much heterogeneity?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 113-136, April.
  641. Ali Farhan Chaudhry & Mian Muhammd Hanif & Sameera Hassan & Muhammad Irfan Chani, 2019. "Efficiency of the Black Foreign Exchange Market," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(2), pages 165-174, February.
  642. Chyng-Hua Shen, 1997. "Testing for foreign exchange market efficiency - a trivariate vector autoregressive approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(6), pages 711-719.
  643. Ricardo D. Brito & Angelo Jose Mont & Alverne Duarte & Osamani Teixeira de Carvalho Guillén, 2004. "Reação Exagerada dos Diferenciais de Rendimento e Movimentos das Taxas de Juros Brasileiras," Finance Lab Working Papers flwp_67, Finance Lab, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  644. Newbold, Paul & Wohar, Mark E. & Rayner, Tony & Kellard, Neil & Ennew, Christine, 1998. "Two puzzles in the analysis of foreign exchange market efficiency," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 95-111.
  645. Mohammadreza Tavakoli Baghdadabad & Girijasankar Mallik, 2021. "Market news co-moments and currency returns," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 1819-1863, October.
  646. Barras, Laurent, 2019. "A large-scale approach for evaluating asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(3), pages 549-569.
  647. Ilan Cooper & Paulo Maio, 2019. "Asset Growth, Profitability, and Investment Opportunities," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(9), pages 3988-4010, September.
  648. Rebecca Neumann & Ron Penl, 2008. "Volatile capital flows: Interactions between de jure and de facto financial liberalization," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(3), pages 1-10.
  649. Jules H. van Binsbergen & Wouter Hueskes & Ralph Koijen & Evert B. Vrugt, 2011. "Equity Yields," NBER Working Papers 17416, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Jules Vanbinsbergen & Wouter H. Hueskes & Ralph Koijen & Evert B Vrugt, 2012. "Equity Yields," Working Papers 2012-007, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
  650. Winston T. Lin & Hong-Jen Lin & Yueh H. Chen, 2002. "The Dynamics and Stochastics of Currency Betas Based on the Unbiasedness Hypothesis in Foreign Exchange Markets," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 6(3-4), pages 167-195, September.
  651. Ardic, Oya Pinar & Ergin, Onur & Senol, G. Bahar, 2008. "Exchange Rate Forecasting: Evidence from the Emerging Central and Eastern European Economies," MPRA Paper 7505, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  652. Peggy Swanson, 1998. "Spot and forward exchange rates as predictors of future spot rates: trends in exchange market value and the contribution of new information," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 22(2), pages 129-138, June.
  653. Javier Gómez, 2007. "Changes in the Informational Content of the Spread: Is Monetary Policy Becoming Less Effective?," Faculty Working Papers 05/07, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  654. Ian Martin, 2011. "The Forward Premium Puzzle in a Two-Country World," NBER Working Papers 17564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  655. Ahmet Can Ýnci, 2007. "Currency and yield Co-integration between a developed and an emerging Country: The Case of Turkey," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 21(1+2), pages 1-20.
  656. Michael Donadelli & Antonio Paradiso & Max Riedel, 2019. "A Quasi Real‐Time Leading Indicator for the EU Industrial Production," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 87(4), pages 510-542, July.
  657. Raul Anibal Feliz & John H. Welch, 1993. "The credibility and performance of unilateral target zones: a comparison of the Mexican and Chilean cases," Working Papers 9331, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  658. David Ardia & Cl'ement Aymard & Tolga Cenesizoglu, 2024. "Revisiting Boehmer et al. (2021): Recent Period, Alternative Method, Different Conclusions," Papers 2403.17095, arXiv.org.
  659. Jonen, Benjamin & Scheuring, Simon, 2014. "Time-varying international diversification and the forward premium," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 128-148.
  660. Adrian Ma, 2006. "Time-varying Risk Premium in the Forward Exchange Rate," EcoMod2006 272100057, EcoMod.
  661. Thomas C. Chiang, 1986. "Empirical Analysis On The Predictors Of Future Spot Rates," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 9(2), pages 153-162, June.
  662. Park, Cyn-Young & Shin, Kwanho, 2023. "The Development of Local Currency Bond Markets and Uncovered Interest Rate Parity," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 677, Asian Development Bank.
  663. Opie, Wei & Riddiough, Steven J., 2020. "Global currency hedging with common risk factors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(3), pages 780-805.
  664. Peter Feldhütter, 2016. "Can Affine Models Match the Moments in Bond Yields?," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(02), pages 1-56, June.
  665. Graham Elliott & Takatoshi Ito, 1995. "Heterogeneous Expectations and Tests of Efficiency in the Yen/Dollar Forward Foreign Exchange Rate Market," NBER Working Papers 5376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  666. Zeng, Yeqin, 2016. "Institutional investors: Arbitrageurs or rational trend chasers," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 240-262.
  667. Rojo Suárez, Javier & Alonso Conde, Ana Belén & Ferrero Pozo, Ricardo, 2020. "European equity markets: Who is the truly representative investor?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 325-346.
  668. Dominguez, Kathryn M., 1986. "Are foreign exchange forecasts rational? : New evidence from survey data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 277-281.
  669. Gregory Connor & Lisa R. Goldberg & Robert A. Korajczyk, 2010. "Portfolio Risk Analysis," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9224.
  670. Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Robert F. Whitelaw, 2008. "The Myth of Long-Horizon Predictability," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1577-1605, July.
  671. P.C.B. Phillips, 1988. "Reflections on Econometric Methodology," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 64(4), pages 344-359, December.
  672. Mark Taylor, 1987. "Risk premia and foreign exchange: A multiple time series approach to testing uncovered interest-rate parity," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 123(4), pages 579-591, December.
  673. Matthew Rafferty & Marc Tomljanovich, 2002. "Central bank transparency and market efficiency: An econometric analysis," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 26(2), pages 150-161, June.
  674. Eli M Remolona & Martijn A Schrijvers, 2003. "Reaching for yield: selected issues for reserve managers," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
  675. Carl Bonham & Richard Cohen & Shigeyuki Abe, 2006. "The Rationality and Heterogeneity of Survey Forecasts of the Yen-Dollar Exchange Rate: A Reexamination," Working Papers 200611, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
  676. Julie Agnew & Pierluigi Balduzzi & Annika Sundén, 2003. "Portfolio Choice and Trading in a Large 401(k) Plan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 193-215, March.
  677. Yoontae Jeon & Thomas H. McCurdy, 2017. "Time-Varying Window Length for Correlation Forecasts," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-29, December.
  678. Chen, Carl R. & Sauer, David A., 1997. "Mean reversion in asset returns with varying debt and equity components: Evidence and implications from preferred stock," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 683-696.
  679. Fisher, Brian S., 1985. "Frontiers in Agricultural Policy Research," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 53(02), pages 1-11, August.
  680. Yiying Cheng & Yaozhong Hu & Hongwei Long, 2020. "Generalized moment estimators for $$\alpha $$α-stable Ornstein–Uhlenbeck motions from discrete observations," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 53-81, April.
  681. Tai, Chu-Sheng, 2003. "Can currency risk be a source of risk premium in explaining forward premium puzzle?: Evidence from Asia-Pacific forward exchange markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 291-311, October.
  682. Paul Hubert, 2010. "Monetary policy, imperfect information and the expectations channel [Politique monétaire,information imparfaite et canal des anticipations]," SciencePo Working papers Main tel-04095385, HAL.
  683. Valkanov, Rossen, 2003. "Long-horizon regressions: theoretical results and applications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 201-232, May.
  684. Jondeau, E. & Ricart, R., 1999. "The Information Content of the French and German Government Bond Tield Curves: Why Such Differences?," Working papers 61, Banque de France.
  685. Fred R. Kaen & Evangelos O. Simos & George A. Hachey, 1984. "The Response Of Forward Exchange Rates To Interest Rate Forecasting Errors," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 7(4), pages 281-290, December.
  686. Back, Kerry & Crotty, Kevin & Kazempour, Seyed Mohammad, 2022. "Validity, tightness, and forecasting power of risk premium bounds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 732-760.
  687. Erik Schlogl & Yang Chang, 2012. "Carry Trade and Liquidity Risk: Evidence from Forward and Cross-Currency Swap Markets," Research Paper Series 310, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  688. Dimic, Nebojsa & Orlov, Vitaly & Piljak, Vanja, 2016. "The effect of political risk on currency carry trades," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 75-78.
  689. Juan Carlos Castañeda Fuentes & Juan Carlos Catalán Herrera, 2008. "Emigrant Remittances and the Real Exchange rate in Guatemala: an Adjustment-Costs Story," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 31-71, January-J.
  690. M. Manzur, 1990. "Key Issues in Exchange Rate Economics," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 90-07, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  691. Bronka Rzepkowski, 2001. "Pouvoir prédictif de la volatilité implicite dans le prix des options de change," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 148(2), pages 71-97.
  692. Chang, Hao-Wen & Lin, Chinho, 2023. "Currency portfolio behavior in seven major Asian markets," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 540-559.
  693. Martín Almuzara & Víctor Sancibrián, 2024. "Micro responses to macro shocks," Working Papers wp2024_2412, CEMFI.
  694. Kuchiki, Akifumi & Ogawa, Kazuo, 1990. "Formation of Expectations and Learning in the Market," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO), vol. 28(1), pages 42-66, March.
  695. Sercu, Piet & Vinaimont, Tom, 2006. "The forward bias in the ECU: Peso risks vs. fads and fashions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 2409-2432, August.
  696. Baker, Malcolm & Greenwood, Robin & Wurgler, Jeffrey, 2003. "The maturity of debt issues and predictable variation in bond returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 261-291, November.
  697. Jiadong Tong & Zijun Wang & Jian Yang, 2016. "Information Flow Between Forward and Spot Markets: Evidence From the Chinese Renminbi," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(7), pages 695-718, July.
  698. Bhatta, Guna Raj & Nepal, Rabindra & Harvie, Charles & Jayanthakumaran, Kankesu, 2022. "Testing for the uncovered interest parity condition in a small open economy: A state space modelling approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
  699. Peter, Eckley, 2015. "(Non)rationality of consumer inflation perceptions," MPRA Paper 77082, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  700. Harvey Lapan, 1984. "Exchange rate determination and real interest rate differentials under uncertainty," International Finance Discussion Papers 232, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  701. Wang, Peijie & Jones, Trefor, 2002. "Testing for efficiency and rationality in foreign exchange markets--a review of the literature and research on foreign exchange market efficiency and rationality with comments," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 223-239, April.
  702. Ferreira, Miguel A. & Laux, Paul A., 2009. "Portfolio flows, volatility and growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 271-292, March.
  703. Fabian T. Lutzenberger, 2014. "The predictability of aggregate returns on commodity futures," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(3), pages 120-130, September.
  704. Neumann, Rebecca M. & Penl, Ron & Tanku, Altin, 2009. "Volatility of capital flows and financial liberalization: Do specific flows respond differently?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 488-501, June.
  705. Nirei, Makoto & Sushko, Vladyslav, 2011. "Jumps in foreign exchange rates and stochastic unwinding of carry trades," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 110-127, January.
  706. Zhaohui Chen & Alberto Giovannini, 1992. "Estimating Expected Exchange Rates Under Target Zones," NBER Working Papers 3955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  707. McCurdy, Thomas H & Morgan, Ieuan G, 1988. "Testing the Martingale Hypothesis in Deutsche Mark Futures with Models Specifying the Form of Heteroscedasticity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(3), pages 187-202, July-Sept.
  708. Chernov, Mikhail, 2007. "On the Role of Risk Premia in Volatility Forecasting," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 411-426, October.
  709. Maxym Chaban & Graham M. Voss, 2016. "Is Canada an optimal currency area? An inflation targeting perspective," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(2), pages 738-771, May.
  710. Debelle, Guy & Lamont, Owen, 1997. "Relative Price Variability and Inflation: Evidence from U.S. Cities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(1), pages 132-152, February.
  711. Ahmad, Rubi & Rhee, S. Ghon & Wong, Yuen Meng, 2012. "Foreign exchange market efficiency under recent crises: Asia-Pacific focus," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1574-1592.
  712. Bozic, Marin & Newton, John & Thraen, Cameron S. & Gould, Brian W., 2012. "Parametric Bootstrap Tests for Futures Price and Implied Volatility Biases with Application to Rating Livestock Margin Insurance for Dairy Cattle," Staff Papers 135077, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
  713. David C. Ling & Andy Naranjo & Benjamin Scheick, 2014. "Investor Sentiment, Limits to Arbitrage and Private Market Returns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(3), pages 531-577, September.
  714. Suh, Sangwon, 2019. "Unexploited currency carry trade profit opportunity," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 236-254.
  715. Richard T. Baillie & Kun Ho Kim, 2016. "Is Robust Inference with OLS Sensible in Time Series Regressions? Investigating Bias and MSE Trade-offs with Feasible GLS and VAR Approaches," Working Paper series 16-04, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  716. Vasilyev, Dmitry (Васильев, Дмитрий) & Busygin, Vladimir (Бусыгин, Владимир) & Busygin, Sergei (Бусыгин, Сергей), 2016. "Testing and Interpreting Uncovered Interest Parity in Russia [Проверка И Интерпретация Выполнения Процентного Паритета В России]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 4, pages 35-55, August.
  717. Serdar A. Avsar, 1992. "Efficiency in Currency Futures Markets SURE vs. FIML Estimates," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 68(S1), pages 130-134, December.
  718. Dupuy, Philippe & James, Jessica & Marsh, Ian W., 2021. "Attractive and non-attractive currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
  719. David A. Hsieh, 1982. "Tests of Rational Expectations and No Risk Premium in Forward Exchange Markats," NBER Working Papers 0843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  720. Jovanović, Mario & Zimmermann, Tobias, 2008. "Stock Market Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Reaction Functions of the Federal Reserve Bank," Ruhr Economic Papers 77, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
  721. Egginton, Don M., 1999. "Testing the efficiency and rationality of City forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 57-66, February.
  722. Winston T. Lin, 1999. "Dynamic and Stochastic Instability and the Unbiased Forward Rate Hypothesis: A Variable Mean Response Approach," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 3(3), pages 173-221, September.
  723. Wei Guo & Zhongfei Chen, 2023. "China–US economic and trade relations, trade news, and short‐term fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 180-203, February.
  724. Djeutem, Edouard, 2014. "Model uncertainty and the Forward Premium Puzzle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 16-40.
  725. Chen, Pei-wen & Huang, Han-ching & Su, Yong-chern, 2014. "The central bank in market efficiency: The case of Taiwan," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 239-260.
  726. Chiang, Thomas C., 1997. "Time series dynamics of short-term interest rates: evidence from Eurocurrency markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 201-220, October.
  727. Bernhardsen, Tom, 2000. "The relationship between interest rate differentials and macroeconomic variables: a panel data study for European countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 289-308, April.
  728. Simon Price & Christoph Schleicher, 2005. "Returns To Equity, Investment And Q: Evidence From The Uk," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(s1), pages 32-57, September.
  729. Kathleen Walsh & David Tan, 2008. "Monetary Policy Surprises and the Bank Bill Term Premium," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 33(2), pages 231-260, December.
  730. L.L. Ong, 1996. "Stocks and Currencies: Are they related?," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 96-16, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  731. Kearney, Fearghal & Cummins, Mark & Murphy, Finbarr, 2019. "Using extracted forward rate term structure information to forecast foreign exchange rates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1-14.
  732. Kenneth A. Froot, 1987. "Tests of Excess Forecast Volatility in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets," NBER Working Papers 2362, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  733. Hanson, James A., 1992. "Opening the capital account : a survey of issues and results," Policy Research Working Paper Series 901, The World Bank.
  734. Iglesias, Emma M. & Phillips, Garry D. A., 2003. "Another look about the evolution of the risk premium: a VAR-GARCH-M model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 777-789, July.
  735. Adrian Austin & Swarna Dutt, 2015. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: A New Look at the Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 43(1), pages 147-159, March.
  736. Norrbin, Stefan C. & Reffett, Kevin L., 1996. "Exogeneity and forward rate unbiasedness," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 267-274, April.
  737. Catherine Doz, 1993. "Note sur les tests de rationalité des prévisions," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 108(2), pages 129-133.
  738. Siddique, Akhtar R., 2003. "Common asset pricing factors in volatilities and returns in futures markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(12), pages 2347-2368, December.
  739. Peter Isard, 1982. "An accounting framework and some issues for modelling how exchange rates respond to the news," International Finance Discussion Papers 200, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  740. Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R., 1998. "Testing for mean reversion in heteroskedastic data II: Autoregression tests based on Gibbs-sampling-augmented randomization1," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 385-396, October.
  741. Ready, Robert & Roussanov, Nikolai & Ward, Colin, 2017. "After the tide: Commodity currencies and global trade," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 69-86.
  742. Bendik P. Andersen & Petter E. de Lange, 2021. "Efficiency in the Atlantic salmon futures market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(6), pages 949-984, June.
  743. Young Se Kim & Gwi Hwan Seol, 2016. "Monetary Policy Regime Shifts and Uncovered Interest Parity Revisited: The Euro–US Dollar Exchange Rate," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 360-378, July.
  744. Graham M. Voss & M. Chaban, 2012. "National and Provincial Inflation in Canada: Experiences under Inflation Targeting," Department Discussion Papers 1201, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
  745. Chiang, Thomas C. & Jiang, Christine X., 1995. "Foreign exchange returns over short and long horizons," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 267-282.
  746. Lindsay I. Hogan, 1986. "A Comparison of Alternative Exchange Rate Forecasting Models," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 62(2), pages 215-223, June.
  747. Mirela Sandulescu & Fabio Trojani & Andrea Vedolin, 2021. "Model‐Free International Stochastic Discount Factors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(2), pages 935-976, April.
  748. Rui Chen & Meng Wang & Jiri Svec, 2017. "Australian Bond Excess Returns: An Asset Allocation Perspective," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(2), pages 163-173, June.
  749. Chow, Edward H. & Chen, Hung-Ling, 1998. "The determinants of foreign exchange rate exposure: Evidence on Japanese firms1," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 6(1-2), pages 153-174, May.
  750. Pagan, Adrian, 1996. "The econometrics of financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 15-102, May.
  751. Heaton, Chris, 2015. "Testing for multiple-period predictability between serially dependent time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 587-597.
  752. Xiomara Archibald & Denny Lewis-Bynoe & Winston Moore, 2008. "Labour Market Flexibility in Small Island Developing States," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 73-91, January-J.
  753. Huynh, Nhan, 2023. "Unemployment beta and the cross-section of stock returns: Evidence from Australia," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
  754. L.A. Sjaastad, 1992. "Gold and the Exchange Rates," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 92-05, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  755. Kwon, Ji Ho, 2020. "Tail behavior of Bitcoin, the dollar, gold and the stock market index," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
  756. Osmani Teixeira De Carvalho Guillen & José Valentim Machado Vicente, 2011. "Characterizing The Brazilian Termstructure Of Interest Rates In A Cointegrated Var Model," Anais do XXXVIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 38th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 041, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  757. Haitham A. Al-Zoubi & Aktham Maghyereh, 2007. "Stationary Component in Stock Prices: A Reappraisal of Empirical Findings," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 11(3-4), pages 287-322, September.
  758. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
  759. Baillie, Richard T. & P. Osterberg, William, 1997. "Central bank intervention and risk in the forward market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 483-497, November.
  760. Ying Huang & Feng Guo, 2006. "An Empirical Examination of Capital Mobility in East Asia Emerging Markets," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 97-111.
  761. Matthew Ames & Guillaume Bagnarosa & Gareth W. Peters, 2013. "Reinvestigating the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Puzzle via Analysis of Multivariate Tail Dependence in Currency Carry Trades," Papers 1303.4314, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2014.
  762. Matthew Ames & Gareth W. Peters & Guillaume Bagnarosa & Ioannis Kosmidis, 2014. "Upside and Downside Risk Exposures of Currency Carry Trades via Tail Dependence," Papers 1406.4322, arXiv.org.
  763. Kim Kaivanto & Peng Zhang, 2019. "Investor Sentiment as a Predictor of Market Returns," Working Papers 268005798, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
  764. Bell, Adrian R. & Brooks, Chris & Dryburgh, Paul, 2007. "Interest rates and efficiency in medieval wool forward contracts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 361-380, February.
  765. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 1981. "Exact linear rational expectations models: specification and estimation," Staff Report 71, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  766. Li, Yulin & Wald, John K. & Wang, Zijun, 2020. "Sovereign bonds, coskewness, and monetary policy regimes," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
  767. Philipp Karl Illeditsch, 2018. "Residual Inflation Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(11), pages 5289-5314, November.
  768. Giulio, Cifarelli, 2004. "Yes, implied volatilities are not informationally efficient: an empirical estimate using options on interest rate futures contracts," MPRA Paper 28655, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  769. Wooldridge, J.M., 1990. "Regression-Based Inference In Linear Time Series Models With Incomplete Dynamics," Working papers 550, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  770. Clinton Watkins & Michael McAleer, 2004. "Econometric modelling of non‐ferrous metal prices," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(5), pages 651-701, December.
  771. Holmes, Mark J., 2001. "Some new evidence on exchange rates, capital controls and European Union financial integration," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 135-146.
  772. Nijman, T.E. & Palm, F.C., 1991. "Recent developments in modeling volatility in financial data," Other publications TiSEM 0c1ff78c-d484-43bb-bcc3-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  773. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Karceski, Jason, 2009. "Long-run performance evaluation: Correlation and heteroskedasticity-consistent tests," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 101-111, January.
  774. Kees G. Koedijk & Mack Ott, 1987. "Risk aversion, efficient markets and the forward exchange rate," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Dec, pages 5-13.
  775. Moore, Michael J. & Copeland, Laurence S., 1995. "A comparison of Johansen and Phillips-Hansen cointegration tests of forward market efficiency Baillie and Bollerslev revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 131-135, February.
  776. Sara G. Castellanos & Eduardo Camero, 2003. "La estructura temporal de tasas de interés en México: ¿Puede predecir la actividad económica futura?," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 18(2), pages 33-66, December.
  777. Ferson, Wayne E & Korajczyk, Robert A, 1995. "Do Arbitrage Pricing Models Explain the Predictability of Stock Returns?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(3), pages 309-349, July.
  778. Joe Peek & Eric Rosengren & Geoffrey M. B. Tootell, 1998. "Does the Federal Reserve have an informational advantage? you can bank on it," Working Papers 98-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  779. Pasquale Della Corte & Steven J. Riddiough & Lucio Sarno, 2016. "Currency Premia and Global Imbalances," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(8), pages 2161-2193.
  780. Boons, M.F., 2014. "Sorting out commodity and macroeconomic risk in expected stock returns," Other publications TiSEM 1ebdac58-bf37-499d-8835-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  781. David G. McMillan, 2021. "Predicting GDP growth with stock and bond markets: Do they contain different information?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3651-3675, July.
  782. Marco Tronzano, 1992. "Efficiency in German and Japanese foreign exchange markets: Evidence from cointegration techniques," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 128(1), pages 1-20, March.
  783. Yoo Byoung Hark, 2010. "Estimating the Term Premium by a Markov Switching Model with ARMA-GARCH Errors," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(2), pages 1-20, March.
  784. Salah Abosedra, 2005. "Futures versus univariate forecast of crude oil prices," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 29(4), pages 231-241, December.
  785. G. C. Lim & C. R. McKenzie, 1998. "Testing the rationality of expectations in the Australian foreign exchange market using survey data with missing observations," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 181-190.
  786. Jakob Brochner Madsen, 1997. "Tests of the Lucas supply curve with price expectational data," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 195-197.
  787. Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Robert Whitelaw, 2005. "The Information in Long-Maturity Forward Rates: Implications for Exchange Rates and the Forward Premium Anomaly," NBER Working Papers 11840, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  788. Doukas, John A. & Zhang, Hao, 2013. "The performance of NDF carry trades," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 172-190.
  789. Hakan Kara & Hande Kucuk Tuger, 2005. "Some Evidence on the Irrationality of Inflation Expectations in Turkey," Working Papers 0512, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  790. Steven Clark & T. Coggin, 2011. "Are U.S. stock prices mean reverting? Some new tests using fractional integration models with overlapping data and structural breaks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 373-391, April.
  791. repec:bla:ecorec:v:91:y:2015:i::p:1-24 is not listed on IDEAS
IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.