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A Modified P*-Model of Inflation Based on M1

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  • Joseph Atta-Mensah

Abstract

This paper examines the performance of M1 in an indicator model of inflation over time horizons as long as 16 quarters into the future. The central conclusion of the paper is that, in addtion to the output gap, the cumulative growth of M1 and the deviations of M1 from its long-run path provide "distant-early-warning" information about the future path of inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph Atta-Mensah, 1996. "A Modified P*-Model of Inflation Based on M1," Staff Working Papers 96-15, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:96-15
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-853, October.
    2. Jamie Armour & Joseph Atta-Mensah & Walter Engert & Scott Hendry, 1996. "A Distant-Early-Warning Model of Inflation Based on M1 Disequilibria," Staff Working Papers 96-5, Bank of Canada.
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    11. Becsi, Zsolt & Duca, John V., 1994. "Adding bond funds to M2 in the P-Star model of inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 143-147, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. David Laidler & William B.P. Robson, 2004. "Two Percent Target: The Context, Theory, and Practice of Canadian Monetary Policy since 1991," C.D. Howe Institute Policy Studies, C.D. Howe Institute, number 20041, January.
    2. Tödter, Karl-Heinz, 2002. "Monetary indicators and policy rules in the P-star model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,18, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Martin Melecky, 2001. "Stabilita dlouhodobe poptavky po siroce definovanych penezich v otevrene ekonomice: pripad CR 1994-2000," Archive of Monetary Policy Division Working Papers 2001/38, Czech National Bank.
    4. Martha Misas A. & Enrique López E. & Luis Fernando Melo V., 1999. "La inflación desde una perspectiva monetaria: un modelo P* para Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 0(35), pages 5-53, June.
    5. Mujeri, Mustafa Kamal & Shahiduzzaman , Md & Islam, Md Ezazul, 2009. "Application of the P?Star Model for Measuring Inflationary Pressure in Bangladesh," Bangladesh Development Studies, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), vol. 32(1), pages 1-22, March.
    6. Ahmad Tashkini, 2006. "The P-star Model in Iran (1960-2005)," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 11(1), pages 115-122, winter.
    7. Mrtin Melecký, 2002. "Poptávka po penìzích v Èeské republice (M1)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 52(3), pages 76-89, March.
    8. Seamus Hogan & Marianne Johnson & Thérèse Laflèche, 2001. "Core Inflation," Technical Reports 89, Bank of Canada.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ECONOMIC MODELS; INFLATION;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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