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Why Long Horizons: A Study of Power Against Persistent Alternatives

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  • John Y. Campbell

Abstract

This paper studies tests of predictability in regressions with a given AR(1) regressor and an asset return dependent variable measured over a short or long horizon. The paper shows that when there is a persistent predictable component in the return, an increase in the horizon may increase the R2 statistic of the regression and the approximate slope of a predictability test. Mone Carlo experiments show that long-horizon regression tests have serious size distortions when asymptotic critical values are used, but some versions of such tests have power advantages remaining after size is corrected.

Suggested Citation

  • John Y. Campbell, 1993. "Why Long Horizons: A Study of Power Against Persistent Alternatives," NBER Technical Working Papers 0142, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberte:0142
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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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