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Risk premia in forward foreign exchange rates: a comparison of signal extraction and regression methods

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  • Zhiguang Wang
  • Prasad Bidarkota

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  • Zhiguang Wang & Prasad Bidarkota, 2012. "Risk premia in forward foreign exchange rates: a comparison of signal extraction and regression methods," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 21-51, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:42:y:2012:i:1:p:21-51
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-010-0427-y
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    2. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-853, October.
    3. Hai, Weike & Mark, Nelson C & Wu, Yangru, 1997. "Understanding Spot and Forward Exchange Rate Regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(6), pages 715-734, Nov.-Dec..
    4. P. E. Hodges & D. F. Hale, 1993. "A Computational Method For Estimating Densities Of Non‐Gaussian Nonstationary Univariate Time Series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 163-178, March.
    5. Nijman, T.E. & Palm, F.C. & Wolff, C.C.P., 1991. "Premia in forward foreign exchange as unobserved components," Other publications TiSEM f9309525-e1b8-46ad-8760-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. Bams, Dennis & Walkowiak, Kim & Wolff, Christian C. P., 2004. "More evidence on the dollar risk premium in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 271-282, March.
    7. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
    8. Martin Sola & Zacharias Psaradakis & Fabio Spagnolo, 2005. "Testing the unbiased forward exchange rate hypothesis using a Markov switching model and instrumental variables," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 423-437.
    9. G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), 1995. "Handbook of International Economics," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 3, number 3.
    10. Kenneth A. Froot & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1989. "Forward Discount Bias: Is it an Exchange Risk Premium?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(1), pages 139-161.
    11. Prasad V. Bidarkota & J. Huston McCulloch, 1998. "Optimal univariate inflation forecasting with symmetric stable shocks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(6), pages 659-670.
    12. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
    13. Boothe, Paul & Glassman, Debra, 1987. "The statistical distribution of exchange rates: Empirical evidence and economic implications," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3-4), pages 297-319, May.
    14. Ram Bhar & Carl Chiarella & Toan Pham, 2000. "Modeling the Currency Forward Risk Premium: Theory and Evidence," Research Paper Series 41, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    15. Wolff, Christian C, 1987. "Forward Exchange Rates and Expected Future Spot Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 187, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Canova, Fabio & Ito, Takatoshi, 1991. "The Time-Series Properties of the Risk Premium in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(2), pages 125-142, April-Jun.
    17. Wolff, Christian C P, 1987. "Forward Foreign Exchange Rates, Expected Spot Rates, and Premia: A Signal-Extraction Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 395-406, June.
    18. Lumsdaine, Robin L, 1996. "Consistency and Asymptotic Normality of the Quasi-maximum Likelihood Estimator in IGARCH(1,1) and Covariance Stationary GARCH(1,1) Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(3), pages 575-596, May.
    19. Ron Jongen & Willem F.C. Verschoor & Christian C.P. Wolff, 2008. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Survey And Synthesis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 140-165, February.
    20. Unknown, 2005. "Forward," 2005 Conference: Slovenia in the EU - Challenges for Agriculture, Food Science and Rural Affairs, November 10-11, 2005, Moravske Toplice, Slovenia 183804, Slovenian Association of Agricultural Economists (DAES).
    21. Fabio Canova & Takatoshi Ito, 1988. "On Time-Series Properties of Time-Varying Risk Premium in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Market," NBER Working Papers 2678, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Wolff, Christian C. P., 2000. "Measuring the forward foreign exchange risk premium: multi-country evidence from unobserved components models," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 1-8, January.
    23. Tucker, Alan L & Pond, Lallon, 1988. "The Probability Distribution of Foreign Exchange Price Changes: Tests of Candidate Processes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(4), pages 638-647, November.
    24. Nijman, Theo E & Palm, Franz C & Wolff, Christian C P, 1993. "Premia in Forward Foreign Exchange as Unobserved Components: A Note," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(3), pages 361-365, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Aziz Chouikh & Abdelwahed Trabelsi, 2014. "The Determinants of Risk Premia in Forward Foreign Exchange (FX) Markets," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 5(2), pages 19-28, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Spot foreign exchange rates; Forward foreign exchange rates; Time-varying risk premium; Signal extraction; Non-normality; Volatility persistence; F31; C5; G12;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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