IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ecorec/v62y1986i2p215-223.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Comparison of Alternative Exchange Rate Forecasting Models

Author

Listed:
  • LINDSAY I. HOGAN

Abstract

This paper compares a number of structural and times‐series models on the basis of their accuracy in forecasting the A ustralian‐US dollar exchange rate out of sample. Purchasing power parity, forward exchange theory, static and dynamic specifications of both the flexible price and sticky price monetary models, and univariate ARIMA models are considered in the paper. Exchange rate forecasts are generated at horizons of one to four quarters. In contrast to overseas results which support the view that the exchange rate follows a random walk, several models in this study are found to generate forecasts superior to the random walk model.

Suggested Citation

  • Lindsay I. Hogan, 1986. "A Comparison of Alternative Exchange Rate Forecasting Models," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 62(2), pages 215-223, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:62:y:1986:i:2:p:215-223
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-4932.1986.tb00897.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4932.1986.tb00897.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1475-4932.1986.tb00897.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Officer, Lawrence H, 1978. "The Relationship between Absolute and Relative Purchasing Power Parity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(4), pages 562-568, November.
    2. Stephen J. Turnovsky & Katrina M. Ball, 1983. "Covered Interest Parity and Speculative Efficiency: Some Empirical Evidence for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 59(3), pages 271-280, September.
    3. repec:bla:scandj:v:78:y:1976:i:2:p:200-224 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-853, October.
    5. Frenkel, Jacob A & Levich, Richard M, 1975. "Covered Interest Arbitrage: Unexploited Profits?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 325-338, April.
    6. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-622, September.
    7. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1982. "The Mystery of the Multiplying Marks: A Modification of the Monetary Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(3), pages 515-519, August.
    8. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    9. Baillie, Richard T & Lippens, Robert E & McMahon, Patrick C, 1983. "Testing Rational Expectations and Efficiency in the Foreign Exchange Market," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(3), pages 553-563, May.
    10. repec:bla:ecorec:v:59:y:1983:i:166:p:271-80 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jarrett Bruhn, 1995. "The Real Interest Differential Hypothesis, How Did it Fare in the 1980's?," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 39(2), pages 78-86, October.
    2. Goodhart, Charles, 1989. "The Conduct of Monetary Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 293-346, June.
    3. Meher Manzur, 1988. "How Much Are Exchange Rate Forecasts Worth?," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 13(1), pages 93-113, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Barry A. Goss & S. Gulay Avsar, 2016. "Can Economists Forecast Exchange Rates? The Debate Re-Visited: The Case of the USD/GBP Market," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(1), pages 14-28, March.
    2. Dal Bianco, Marcos & Camacho, Maximo & Perez Quiros, Gabriel, 2012. "Short-run forecasting of the euro-dollar exchange rate with economic fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 377-396.
    3. Goldberg, Michael D. & Frydman, Roman, 1996. "Empirical exchange rate models and shifts in the co-integrating vector," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 55-78, March.
    4. Richard M. Levich, 1983. "Empirical Studies of Exchange Rates: Price Behavior, Rate Determinationand Market Efficiency," NBER Working Papers 1112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Baillie, Richard T. & Diebold, Francis X. & Kapetanios, George & Kim, Kun Ho, 2023. "A new test for market efficiency and uncovered interest parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    6. Giovannini, Alberto & Rotemberg, Julio J, 1989. "Exchange-Rate Dynamics with Sticky Prices: The Deutsche Mark, 1974-1982," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(2), pages 169-178, April.
    7. Juan Jose Echavarria & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2016. "Great expectations? evidence from Colombia’s exchange rate survey," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 25(1), pages 1-27, December.
    8. Chen, Pei-wen & Huang, Han-ching & Su, Yong-chern, 2014. "The central bank in market efficiency: The case of Taiwan," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 239-260.
    9. Verschoor, Willem F. C. & Wolff, Christian C. P., 2001. "Exchange risk premia, expectations formation and "news" in the Mexican peso/U.S. dollar forward exchange rate market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 157-174.
    10. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth A. Froot, 1985. "Using Survey Data to Test Some Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 1672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Jordà, Òscar & Taylor, Alan M., 2012. "The carry trade and fundamentals: Nothing to fear but FEER itself," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 74-90.
    12. Rahim Loufir & Catherine Bruno & Pascal Jacquinot, 1992. "L'efficience et la formation des anticipations sur le marché des changes," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 42(1), pages 249-282.
    13. Robert E. Cumby & Maurice Obstfeld, 1984. "International Interest Rate and Price Level Linkages under Flexible Exchange Rates: A Review of Recent Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 121-152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Warren J. Tease, 1988. "Speculative Efficiency and the Exchange Rate: Some Evidence Since the Float," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 64(1), pages 2-13, March.
    15. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "Can exchange rate predictability be achieved without monetary convergence? : Evidence from the EMS," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 93-115.
    16. Clemens J. M. Kool & John A. Tatom, 1988. "International linkages in the term structure of interest rates," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 30-43.
    17. Chrystal, K. Alec & MacDonald, Ronald, 1995. "Exchange rates, financial innovation and divisia money: the sterling/dollar rate 1972-1990," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 493-513, August.
    18. Dibooglu, Selahattin, 1993. "Multiple cointegration and structural models: applications to exchange rate determination," ISU General Staff Papers 1993010108000011419, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    19. W A Razzak & Thomas Grennes, 1998. "The long-run nominal exchange rate: specification and estimation issues," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G98/5, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    20. Coudert, Virginie & Mignon, Valérie, 2013. "The “forward premium puzzle” and the sovereign default risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 491-511.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:62:y:1986:i:2:p:215-223. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/esausea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.