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A Comparison of Alternative Exchange Rate Forecasting Models

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  • LINDSAY I. HOGAN

Abstract

This paper compares a number of structural and times‐series models on the basis of their accuracy in forecasting the A ustralian‐US dollar exchange rate out of sample. Purchasing power parity, forward exchange theory, static and dynamic specifications of both the flexible price and sticky price monetary models, and univariate ARIMA models are considered in the paper. Exchange rate forecasts are generated at horizons of one to four quarters. In contrast to overseas results which support the view that the exchange rate follows a random walk, several models in this study are found to generate forecasts superior to the random walk model.

Suggested Citation

  • Lindsay I. Hogan, 1986. "A Comparison of Alternative Exchange Rate Forecasting Models," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 62(2), pages 215-223, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:62:y:1986:i:2:p:215-223
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-4932.1986.tb00897.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stephen J. Turnovsky & Katrina M. Ball, 1983. "Covered Interest Parity and Speculative Efficiency: Some Empirical Evidence for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 59(3), pages 271-280, September.
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    3. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-853, October.
    4. Officer, Lawrence H, 1978. "The Relationship between Absolute and Relative Purchasing Power Parity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(4), pages 562-568, November.
    5. Frenkel, Jacob A & Levich, Richard M, 1975. "Covered Interest Arbitrage: Unexploited Profits?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 325-338, April.
    6. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-622, September.
    7. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1982. "The Mystery of the Multiplying Marks: A Modification of the Monetary Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(3), pages 515-519, August.
    8. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    9. Baillie, Richard T & Lippens, Robert E & McMahon, Patrick C, 1983. "Testing Rational Expectations and Efficiency in the Foreign Exchange Market," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(3), pages 553-563, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jarrett Bruhn, 1995. "The Real Interest Differential Hypothesis, How Did it Fare in the 1980's?," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 39(2), pages 78-86, October.
    2. Goodhart, Charles, 1989. "The Conduct of Monetary Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 293-346, June.
    3. Meher Manzur, 1988. "How Much Are Exchange Rate Forecasts Worth?," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 13(1), pages 93-113, June.

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