IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/rwirep/77.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Stock Market Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Reaction Functions of the Federal Reserve Bank

Author

Listed:
  • Jovanović, Mario
  • Zimmermann, Tobias

Abstract

In this paper we examine the link between stock market uncertainty and monetary policy in the US. There are strong arguments why central banks should account for stock market uncertainty in their strategy. Amongst others, they can maintain the functioning of financial markets and moderate possible economic downswings. To describe the behavior of the Federal Reserve Bank, augmented forward-looking Taylor rules are estimated by GMM. The standard specification is expanded by a measure for stock market uncertainty, which is estimated by an exponential GARCH-model. We show that, given a certain level of inflation and output, US central bank rates are significantly lower when stock market uncertainty is high and vice versa. These results are achieved by using the federal funds rate from 1980:10 to 2007:7.

Suggested Citation

  • Jovanović, Mario & Zimmermann, Tobias, 2008. "Stock Market Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Reaction Functions of the Federal Reserve Bank," Ruhr Economic Papers 77, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwirep:77
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/26843/1/588120995.PDF
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christopher F Baum & Mark E. Schaffer & Steven Stillman, 2003. "Instrumental variables and GMM: Estimation and testing," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 3(1), pages 1-31, March.
    2. Siklos, Pierre L. & Werner, Thomas & Bohl, Martin T., 2004. "Asset Prices in Taylor Rules: Specification, Estimation, and Policy Implications for the ECB," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,22, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    4. Zuliu Hu, 1995. "Stock Market Volatility and Corporate Investment," IMF Working Papers 1995/102, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-853, October.
    6. Carstensen Kai, 2006. "Estimating the ECB Policy Reaction Function," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-34, February.
    7. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    8. repec:bla:germec:v:7:y:2006:i::p:1-34 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Choudhry, Taufiq, 2003. "Stock market volatility and the US consumer expenditure," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 367-385, September.
    10. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    11. John B. Taylor, 2007. "Housing and monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 463-476.
    12. Clémentine Florens & Eric Jondeau & Hervé Le Bihan, 2001. "Assessing GMM Estimates of the Federal Reserve Reaction Function," Econometrics 0111003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
    14. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    15. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    16. Paolo Surico & Antonello D'Agostino & Luca Sala, 2005. "The Fed and the Stock Market," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 293, Society for Computational Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Batiston Marques, Thales & Seixas dos Santos, Nelson, 2016. "Do Political News Affect Financial Market Returns? Evidences from Brazil," MPRA Paper 75530, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mario Jovanovic & Tobias Zimmermann, 2008. "Stock Market Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Reaction Functions of the Federal Reserve Bank," Ruhr Economic Papers 0077, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    2. repec:zbw:rwirep:0077 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Jovanovic Mario & Zimmermann Tobias, 2010. "Stock Market Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Reaction Functions of the Federal Reserve Bank," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-19, July.
    4. Bronka Rzepkowski, 2001. "Pouvoir prédictif de la volatilité implicite dans le prix des options de change," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 148(2), pages 71-97.
    5. Siddique, Akhtar R., 2003. "Common asset pricing factors in volatilities and returns in futures markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(12), pages 2347-2368, December.
    6. Hoffmann, Andreas, 2009. "Fear of depression - Asymmetric monetary policy with respect to asset markets," MPRA Paper 17522, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Botzen, W.J. Wouter & Marey, Philip S., 2010. "Did the ECB respond to the stock market before the crisis?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 303-322, May.
    8. Christian Bontemps & Nour Meddahi, 2012. "Testing distributional assumptions: A GMM aproach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(6), pages 978-1012, September.
    9. Meddahi, Nour & Renault, Eric, 2004. "Temporal aggregation of volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 355-379, April.
    10. Andersen, Torben G. & Lund, Jesper, 1997. "Estimating continuous-time stochastic volatility models of the short-term interest rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 343-377, April.
    11. Dominique Guegan & Bertrand K. Hassani, 2019. "Risk Measurement," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-02119256, HAL.
    12. Tim Bollerslev & Robert J. Hodrick, 1992. "Financial Market Efficiency Tests," NBER Working Papers 4108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Aatola, Piia, 2013. "Putting a Price on Carbon – Econometric Essays on the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme and its Impacts," Research Reports P62, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    14. Diether Beuermann & Antonios Antoniou & Alejandro Bernales, 2005. "The Dynamics of the Short-Term Interest Rate in the UK," Finance 0512029, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Bontemps, Christian & Meddahi, Nour, 2005. "Testing normality: a GMM approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 149-186, January.
    16. Andersen, Torben G, 1996. "Return Volatility and Trading Volume: An Information Flow Interpretation of Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 169-204, March.
    17. Nijman, T.E. & Palm, F.C., 1991. "Recent developments in modeling volatility in financial data," Discussion Paper 1991-68, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    18. Ghysels, E. & Harvey, A. & Renault, E., 1995. "Stochastic Volatility," Papers 95.400, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
    19. Tse, Yiuman, 1998. "International transmission of information: evidence from the Euroyen and Eurodollar futures markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 909-929, December.
    20. Yueh-Neng Lin & Ken Hung, 2008. "Is Volatility Priced?," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 9(1), pages 39-75, May.
    21. Coelho dos Santos, Marcelo Bittencourt & Klotzle, Marcelo Cabus & Figueiredo Pinto, Antonio Carlos, 2016. "Evidence of risk premiums in emerging market carry trade currencies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 103-115.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy rules; financial markets; stock market uncertainty; EGARCH;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:rwirep:77. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rwiesde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.