IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormnsc/v64y2018i11p5289-5314.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Residual Inflation Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Philipp Karl Illeditsch

    (The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104)

Abstract

I decompose inflation risk into (i) a component that is correlated with factors that determine investors’ preferences and investment opportunities and real returns on real assets with risky cash flows (stocks, corporate bonds, real estate, commodities, etc.), and (ii) a residual inflation risk component. In equilibrium, only the first component earns a risk premium. Therefore, investors should avoid exposure to the residual component. All nominal bonds, including money-market accounts, have constant nominal cash flows, and thus their real returns are equally exposed to residual inflation risk. In contrast, inflation-protected bonds provide a means to avoid cash flow and residual inflation risk. Hence, every investor should put 100% of her wealth in real assets (inflation-protected bonds, stocks, corporate bonds, real estate, commodities, etc.) and finance every long/short position in nominal bonds with an equal amount of other nominal bonds or by borrowing/lending cash; that is, investors should hold a zero-investment portfolio of nominal bonds and cash.

Suggested Citation

  • Philipp Karl Illeditsch, 2018. "Residual Inflation Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(11), pages 5289-5314, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:64:y:2018:i:11:p:5289-5314
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2017.2803
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2017.2803
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/mnsc.2017.2803?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Y. Campbell & Yeung Lewis Chanb & M. Viceira, 2013. "A multivariate model of strategic asset allocation," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part II, chapter 39, pages 809-848, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-853, October.
    3. Cartea, Álvaro & Saúl, Jonatan & Toro, Juan, 2012. "Optimal portfolio choice in real terms: Measuring the benefits of TIPS," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 721-740.
    4. John H. Cochrane & Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "Bond Risk Premia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 138-160, March.
    5. Merton, Robert C., 1971. "Optimum consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous-time model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 373-413, December.
    6. Michael J. Brennan & Yihong Xia, 2002. "Dynamic Asset Allocation under Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1201-1238, June.
    7. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert & Wei, Min, 2007. "Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1163-1212, May.
    8. Antonios Sangvinatsos & Jessica A. Wachter, 2005. "Does the Failure of the Expectations Hypothesis Matter for Long‐Term Investors?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 179-230, February.
    9. LuisM. Viceira & John Y. Campbell, 2001. "Who Should Buy Long-Term Bonds?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 99-127, March.
    10. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    11. Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1991. "Implications of Security Market Data for Models of Dynamic Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 225-262, April.
    12. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Jonathan H. Wright, 2010. "The TIPS Yield Curve and Inflation Compensation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 70-92, January.
    13. Fischer, Stanley, 1975. "The Demand for Index Bonds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(3), pages 509-534, June.
    14. Hunter, Delroy M. & Simon, David P., 2005. "Are TIPS the "real" deal?: A conditional assessment of their role in a nominal portfolio," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 347-368, February.
    15. Carolin E. Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira, 2011. "Inflation-Indexed Bonds and the Expectations Hypothesis," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 139-158, December.
    16. Zvi Bodie & Alex Kane & Robert McDonald, 1985. "Inflation and the Role of Bonds in Investor Portfolios," NBER Chapters, in: Corporate Capital Structures in the United States, pages 167-196, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Viard, Alan D, 1993. "The Welfare Gain from the Introduction of Indexed Bonds," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 612-628, August.
    18. Matthias Fleckenstein & Francis A. Longstaff & Hanno Lustig, 2014. "The TIPS-Treasury Bond Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(5), pages 2151-2197, October.
    19. Jun Liu, 2007. "Portfolio Selection in Stochastic Environments," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(1), pages 1-39, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Grishchenko, Olesya V. & Vanden, Joel M. & Zhang, Jianing, 2016. "The informational content of the embedded deflation option in TIPS," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1-26.
    2. Koijen, Ralph S.J. & Hemert, Otto Van & Nieuwerburgh, Stijn Van, 2009. "Mortgage timing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 292-324, August.
    3. Li, Kai, 2019. "Portfolio selection with inflation-linked bonds and indexation lags," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    4. Bolorsuvd Batbold & Kentaro Kikuchi & Koji Kusuda, 2022. "Semi-analytical solution for consumption and investment problem under quadratic security market model with inflation risk," Mathematics and Financial Economics, Springer, volume 16, number 4, December.
    5. Cartea, Álvaro & Saúl, Jonatan & Toro, Juan, 2012. "Optimal portfolio choice in real terms: Measuring the benefits of TIPS," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 721-740.
    6. Boons, M.F., 2014. "Sorting out commodity and macroeconomic risk in expected stock returns," Other publications TiSEM 1ebdac58-bf37-499d-8835-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    7. Koijen, R.S.J. & Nijman, T.E. & Werker, B.J.M., 2006. "Optimal Portfolio Choice with Annuitization," Discussion Paper 2006-78, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    8. John H. Cochrane, 2014. "A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(1), pages 1-49, February.
    9. Koijen, R.S.J. & Nijman, T.E. & Werker, B.J.M., 2006. "Optimal Portfolio Choice with Annuitization," Other publications TiSEM e0ee89d5-4a5f-4c70-a7ee-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    10. Juan Angel Garcia & Adrian van Rixtel, 2007. "Inflation-linked bonds from a central bank perspective," Occasional Papers 0705, Banco de España.
    11. Hanson, Samuel G. & Stein, Jeremy C., 2015. "Monetary policy and long-term real rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 429-448.
    12. Gregory Connor & Lisa R. Goldberg & Robert A. Korajczyk, 2010. "Portfolio Risk Analysis," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9224.
    13. Olesya V. Grishchenko & Joel M. Vanden & Jianing Zhang, 2011. "The information content of the embedded deflation pption in TIPS," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-58, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Romain Deguest & Lionel Martellini & Vincent Milhau, 2018. "A Reinterpretation of the Optimal Demand for Risky Assets in Fund Separation Theorems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(9), pages 4333-4347, September.
    15. Filipović, Damir & Gourier, Elise & Mancini, Loriano, 2016. "Quadratic variance swap models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 44-68.
    16. Daniel Giamouridis & Athanasios Sakkas & Nikolaos Tessaromatis, 2017. "Dynamic Asset Allocation with Liabilities," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 23(2), pages 254-291, March.
    17. Larsen, Linda Sandris & Munk, Claus, 2012. "The costs of suboptimal dynamic asset allocation: General results and applications to interest rate risk, stock volatility risk, and growth/value tilts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 266-293.
    18. Munk, Claus & Sørensen, Carsten, 2010. "Dynamic asset allocation with stochastic income and interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(3), pages 433-462, June.
    19. Horneff, Wolfram J. & Maurer, Raimond H. & Stamos, Michael Z., 2008. "Life-cycle asset allocation with annuity markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 3590-3612, November.
    20. Guo, Bin & Huang, Fuzhe & Li, Kai, 2022. "Time to build and bond risk premia," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:64:y:2018:i:11:p:5289-5314. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.