IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/usg/sfwpfi/201802.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Solvency Risk Premia and the Carry Trades

Author

Listed:
  • Vitaly Orlov

Abstract

The paper shows that currency carry trades can be rationalized by the time-varying risk premia originating from the sovereign solvency risk. We find that solvency risk is a key determinant of risk premia in the cross section of carry trade returns, as its covariance with returns captures a substantial part of the cross-sectional vraiation of carry trade returns. Importantly, low interest rate currencies serve as insurance against solvency risk, while high interest rate currencies expose investors to more risk. The results are not attenuated by existing risks and pass a broad range of various robustness checks.

Suggested Citation

  • Vitaly Orlov, 2018. "Solvency Risk Premia and the Carry Trades," Working Papers on Finance 1802, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:usg:sfwpfi:2018:02
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ux-tauri.unisg.ch/RePEc/usg/sfwpfi/WPF-1802.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 6, pages 247-290, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    3. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
    4. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "Carry Trade and Momentum in Currency Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 511-535, December.
    5. Philip R. Lane & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2010. "Financial Exchange Rates and International Currency Exposures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 518-540, March.
    6. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-853, October.
    7. Huang, Huichou & MacDonald, Ronald, 2012. "Currency Carry Trades, Position-Unwinding Risk, and Sovereign Credit Premia," MPRA Paper 47987, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Jan 2013.
    8. Stephen A. Ross, 2013. "The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 1, pages 11-30, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Default, Currency Crises, and Sovereign Credit Ratings," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 16(2), pages 151-170, August.
    10. Xavier Gabaix & Matteo Maggiori, 2015. "International Liquidity and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(3), pages 1369-1420.
    11. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Isaac Kleshchelski & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "Do Peso Problems Explain the Returns to the Carry Trade?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(3), pages 853-891.
    12. Maurice Obstfeld, 1982. "Aggregate Spending and the Terms of Trade: Is There a Laursen-Metzler Effect?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 97(2), pages 251-270.
    13. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2007. "The Cross Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 89-117, March.
    14. Daniel Cohen & Jeffrey Sachs, 1991. "Growth and External Debt Under Risk of Debt Repudiation," NBER Chapters, in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 437-472, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Coudert, Virginie & Mignon, Valérie, 2013. "The “forward premium puzzle” and the sovereign default risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 491-511.
    16. Lukas Menkhoff & Lucio Sarno & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2012. "Carry Trades and Global Foreign Exchange Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(2), pages 681-718, April.
    17. Nina Karnaukh & Angelo Ranaldo & Paul Söderlind, 2015. "Understanding FX Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(11), pages 3073-3108.
    18. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-858, May.
    19. Shanken, Jay, 1992. "On the Estimation of Beta-Pricing Models," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 1-33.
    20. Hanno Lustig & Nikolai Roussanov & Adrien Verdelhan, 2011. "Common Risk Factors in Currency Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(11), pages 3731-3777.
    21. Ichiro Otani & Delano Villanueva, 1989. "Theoretical Aspects of Growth in Developing Countries: External Debt Dynamics and the Role of Human Capital," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(2), pages 307-342, June.
    22. Krasker, William S., 1980. "The `peso problem' in testing the efficiency of forward exchange markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 269-276, April.
    23. Lo, Andrew W & MacKinlay, A Craig, 1990. "Data-Snooping Biases in Tests of Financial Asset Pricing Models," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(3), pages 431-467.
    24. Froot, Kenneth A & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Foreign Exchange," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 179-192, Summer.
    25. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
    26. Loriano Mancini & Angelo Ranaldo & Jan Wrampelmeyer, 2013. "Liquidity in the Foreign Exchange Market: Measurement, Commonality, and Risk Premiums," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(5), pages 1805-1841, October.
    27. Jurek, Jakub W., 2014. "Crash-neutral currency carry trades," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(3), pages 325-347.
    28. Lettau, Martin & Maggiori, Matteo & Weber, Michael, 2014. "Conditional risk premia in currency markets and other asset classes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 197-225.
    29. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 223-250, November.
    30. Kaminsky, Graciela, 1993. "Is There a Peso Problem? Evidence from the Dollar/Pound Exchange Rate, 1976-1987," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 450-472, June.
    31. Angelo Ranaldo & Paul Söderlind, 2010. "Safe Haven Currencies," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(3), pages 385-407.
    32. Doron Avramov & Tarun Chordia, 2006. "Asset Pricing Models and Financial Market Anomalies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(3), pages 1001-1040.
    33. Litzenberger, Robert H. & Ramaswamy, Krishna, 1979. "The effect of personal taxes and dividends on capital asset prices : Theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 163-195, June.
    34. Daniel, Kent & Hodrick, Robert J. & Lu, Zhongjin, 2017. "The Carry Trade: Risks and Drawdowns," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 6(2), pages 211-262, September.
    35. Craig Burnside & Bing Han & David Hirshleifer & Tracy Yue Wang, 2011. "Investor Overconfidence and the Forward Premium Puzzle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 78(2), pages 523-558.
    36. Pasquale Della Corte & Steven J. Riddiough & Lucio Sarno, 2016. "Currency Premia and Global Imbalances," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(8), pages 2161-2193.
    37. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel & Lasse H. Pedersen, 2009. "Carry Trades and Currency Crashes," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 313-347, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    38. Bilson, John F O, 1981. "The "Speculative Efficiency" Hypothesis," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(3), pages 435-451, July.
    39. Escudé, Guillermo J., 2013. "A DSGE model for a SOE with systematic interest and foreign exchange policies in which policymakers exploit the risk premium for stabilization purposes," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 7, pages 1-110.
    40. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    41. Lars Peter Hansen & Robert J. Hodrick, 1983. "Risk Averse Speculation in the Forward Foreign Exchange Market: An Econometric Analysis of Linear Models," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 113-152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    42. Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan & Lasse H. Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2011. "How Sovereign Is Sovereign Credit Risk?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 75-103, April.
    43. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    44. Ang, Andrew & Longstaff, Francis A., 2013. "Systemic sovereign credit risk: Lessons from the U.S. and Europe," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(5), pages 493-510.
    45. Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, "undated". "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics.
    46. Eaton, Jonathan & Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1983. "Covered Interest Parity, Uncovered Interest Parity and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 93(371), pages 555-575, September.
    47. Hui, Cho-Hoi & Chung, Tsz-Kin, 2011. "Crash risk of the euro in the sovereign debt crisis of 2009-2010," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2945-2955, November.
    48. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    49. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
    50. Brennan, Michael J. & Chordia, Tarun & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1998. "Alternative factor specifications, security characteristics, and the cross-section of expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 345-373, September.
    51. Jagdeep S. Bhandari & Nadeem Ul Haque & Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1990. "Growth, External Debt, and Sovereign Risk in a Small Open Economy," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(2), pages 388-417, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jamali, Ibrahim & Yamani, Ehab & Smallwood, Aaron D., 2023. "An investment-based explanation of currency excess returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    2. Aleksejs Krecetovs & Pasquale Della Corte, 2016. "Macro uncertainty and currency premia," 2016 Meeting Papers 624, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Pasquale Della Corte & Lucio Sarno & Maik Schmeling & Christian Wagner, 2022. "Exchange Rates and Sovereign Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(8), pages 5591-5617, August.
    4. Daniel, Kent & Hodrick, Robert J. & Lu, Zhongjin, 2017. "The Carry Trade: Risks and Drawdowns," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 6(2), pages 211-262, September.
    5. Opie, Wei & Riddiough, Steven J., 2020. "Global currency hedging with common risk factors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(3), pages 780-805.
    6. Ferdinand Dreher & Johannes Gräb & Thomas Kostka, 2020. "From carry trades to curvy trades," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 758-780, March.
    7. Fan, Zhenzhen & Londono, Juan M. & Xiao, Xiao, 2022. "Equity tail risk and currency risk premiums," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 484-503.
    8. Berg, Kimberly A. & Mark, Nelson C., 2018. "Global macro risks in currency excess returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 300-315.
    9. Huang, Huichou & MacDonald, Ronald & Zhao, Yang, 2012. "Global Currency Misalignments, Crash Sensitivity, and Downside Insurance Costs," MPRA Paper 53745, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Nov 2013.
    10. Dupuy, Philippe & James, Jessica & Marsh, Ian W., 2021. "Attractive and non-attractive currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    11. Choi, Jin Ho & Suh, Sangwon, 2022. "Conditionally-hedged currency carry trades," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    12. Ahmed, Shamim & Valente, Giorgio, 2015. "Understanding the price of volatility risk in carry trades," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 118-129.
    13. Byrne, Joseph P. & Ibrahim, Boulis Maher & Sakemoto, Ryuta, 2018. "Common information in carry trade risk factors," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 37-47.
    14. Abankwa, Samuel & Blenman, Lloyd P., 2021. "Measuring liquidity risk effects on carry trades across currencies and regimes," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    15. Cheong, Calvin W.H. & Sinnakkannu, Jothee & Ramasamy, Sockalingam, 2017. "On the predictability of carry trade returns: The case of the Chinese Yuan," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 358-376.
    16. Pasquale Della Corte & Steven J. Riddiough & Lucio Sarno, 2016. "Currency Premia and Global Imbalances," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(8), pages 2161-2193.
    17. Söhnke M. Bartram & Harald Lohre & Peter F. Pope & Ananthalakshmi Ranganathan, 2021. "Navigating the factor zoo around the world: an institutional investor perspective," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 91(5), pages 655-703, July.
    18. Eriksen, Jonas N., 2019. "Cross-sectional return dispersion and currency momentum," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 91-108.
    19. Reitz, Stefan & Umlandt, Dennis, 2021. "Currency returns and FX dealer balance sheets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    20. Lee, Suzanne S. & Wang, Minho, 2019. "The impact of jumps on carry trade returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(2), pages 433-455.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Solvency Risk; Carry Trades; Risk Premia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:usg:sfwpfi:2018:02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cfisgch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.