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Currency forecasting based on an error components-seemingly unrelated nonlinear regression model

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  • Winston T. Lin

    (The State University of New York at Buffalo, USA)

Abstract

This paper proposes to forecast foreign exchange rates by means of an error components-seemingly unrelated nonlinear regression (EC-SUNR) model and, simultaneously, explore the interrelationships among currencies from newly industrializing economies with those of highly industrialized countries. Based on the empirical results, we find that the EC-SUNR model improves on the performance of forecasting foreign exchange rates in comparison with an intrinsically nonlinear dynamic speed of adjustment model that has been shown to outperform several other important models in the forecasting literature. We also find evidence showing that the foreign exchange markets of the newly industrializing countries are influenced by those of the highly industrialized countries and vice versa, and that such interrelationships affect the accuracy of currency forecasting. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Winston T. Lin, 2005. "Currency forecasting based on an error components-seemingly unrelated nonlinear regression model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(8), pages 593-605.
    • Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:24:y:2005:i:8:p:593-605
    DOI: 10.1002/for.971
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    Cited by:

    1. Lin, Winston T. & Chen, Yueh H. & Hung, TingShu, 2019. "A partial adjustment valuation approach with stochastic and dynamic speeds of partial adjustment to measuring and evaluating the business value of information technology," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 272(2), pages 766-779.
    2. Lin, Winston T. & Chuang, Chia-Hung & Choi, Jeong Hoon, 2010. "A partial adjustment approach to evaluating and measuring the business value of information technology," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(1), pages 158-172, September.
    3. Baltagi, Badi H., 2013. "Panel Data Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 995-1024, Elsevier.
    4. Chen, Yueh H. & Lin, Winston T., 2009. "Analyzing the relationships between information technology, inputs substitution and national characteristics based on CES stochastic frontier production models," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 552-569, August.
    5. Zhiguang ZHANG & Haiqing HU & Winston T. LIN, 2019. "Analyzing the Impacts of Unobserved National Characteristics on Economic Performance of Information Technology based on a Partial Adjustment Approach With Dynamic and Variable Speed of Adjustment," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 128-142, March.
    6. Lin, Winston T. & Kao, Ta-Wei (Daniel), 2014. "The partial adjustment valuation approach with dynamic and variable speeds of adjustment to evaluating and measuring the business value of information technology," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 238(1), pages 208-220.

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