IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/1493.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Use of (Time-Domain) Vector Autoregressions to Test Uncovered Interest Parity

Author

Listed:
  • Takatoshi Ito

Abstract

In this paper, a vector autoregression model (VAR) is proposed in order to test uncovered interest parity (UIP) in the foreign exchange market. Consider a VAR system of the spot exchange rate (yen/dollar), the domestic (US) interest rate and the foreign (Japanese) interest rate, describing the interdependence of the domestic and international financia lmarkets. Uncovered interest parity is stated as a null hypothesis that the current difference between the two interest rates is equal to the difference between the expected future (log of) exchange rate and the (log of) current spot exchange rate. Note that the VAR system will yield the expected future spot exchange rate as a k-step ahead unconditional prediction. Hence, the null hypothesis is stated as nonlinear cross-equational restrictions for the three-equation VAR system. Then UIP is tested by the Wald test between the unrestricted and restricted systems. A test of UIP with a maintained hypothesis of covered interest parity, becomes a hypothesis test of efficiency without risk premium, that is,the forward exchange rate isthe unbiased predictor of the future spot exchange rate, and information is efficiently used in its prediction. Our results are compared to the efficiency test with a single equation using the Hansen-Hodrick procedure for the same data set.

Suggested Citation

  • Takatoshi Ito, 1984. "Use of (Time-Domain) Vector Autoregressions to Test Uncovered Interest Parity," NBER Working Papers 1493, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1493
    Note: ME ITI IFM
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w1493.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    2. Hodrick, Robert J. & Srivastava, Sanjay, 1984. "An investigation of risk and return in forward foreign exchange," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 5-29, April.
    3. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-853, October.
    4. Richard Meese & Kenneth Rogoff, 1983. "The Out-of-Sample Failure of Empirical Exchange Rate Models: Sampling Error or Misspecification?," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 67-112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Hodrick, Robert J., 1981. "International asset pricing with time-varying risk premia," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 573-587, November.
    6. Cornell, Bradford, 1977. "Spot rates, forward rates and exchange market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 55-65, August.
    7. Longworth, David, 1981. "Testing the Efficiency of the Canadian-U.S. Exchange Market under the Assumption of no Risk Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(1), pages 43-49, March.
    8. Geweke, John F & Feige, Edgar L, 1979. "Some Joint Tests of the Efficiency of Markets for Forward Foreign Exchange," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 61(3), pages 334-341, August.
    9. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1977. "The Forward Exchange Rate, Expectations, and the Demand for Money: The German Hyperinflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 653-670, September.
    10. Sargent, Thomas J., 1979. "A note on maximum likelihood estimation of the rational expectations model of the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 133-143, January.
    11. Gregory, Allan W. & McCurdy, Thomas H., 1984. "Testing the unbiasedness hypothesis in the forward foreign exchange market: A specification analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 357-368, December.
    12. Christopher A. Sims, 1982. "Policy Analysis with Econometric Models," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 13(1), pages 107-164.
    13. Hakkio, Craig S., 1981. "The term structure of the forward premium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 41-58.
    14. Frenkel, Jacob A., 1979. "Further evidence on expectations and the demand for money during the German hyperinflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 81-96, January.
    15. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1981. "Flexible Exchange Rates, Prices, and the Role of "News": Lessons from the 1970s," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(4), pages 665-705, August.
    16. Robert E. Cumby & Maurice Obstfeld, 1984. "International Interest Rate and Price Level Linkages under Flexible Exchange Rates: A Review of Recent Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 121-152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 1981. "Exact linear rational expectations models: specification and estimation," Staff Report 71, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    18. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    19. Takatoshi Ito, 1983. "Capital Controls and Covered Interest Parity," NBER Working Papers 1187, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Sargent, Thomas J, 1984. "Autoregressions, Expectations, and Advice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 408-415, May.
    21. Baillie, Richard T & Lippens, Robert E & McMahon, Patrick C, 1983. "Testing Rational Expectations and Efficiency in the Foreign Exchange Market," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(3), pages 553-563, May.
    22. Lars Peter Hansen & Robert J. Hodrick, 1983. "Risk Averse Speculation in the Forward Foreign Exchange Market: An Econometric Analysis of Linear Models," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 113-152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Mussa, Michael, 1979. "Empirical regularities in the behavior of exchange rates and theories of the foreign exchange market," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 9-57, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
    2. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Froot, Kenneth A., 1987. "Short-term and long-term expectations of the yen/dollar exchange rate: Evidence from survey data," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 249-274, September.
    3. Ito Takatoshi & Okina Kunio & Teranishi Juro, 1993. "News and the Dollar/Yen Exchange Rate, 1931-1933: The End of the Gold Standard, Imperialism, and the Great Depression," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 107-131, June.
    4. Jeffrey A. Frankel., 1992. "The Evolving Japanese Financial System, and the Cost of Capital," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C92-002, University of California at Berkeley.
    5. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1993. "Is Japan Creating a Yen Bloc in East Asia and the Pacific?," NBER Chapters, in: Regionalism and Rivalry: Japan and the United States in Pacific Asia, pages 53-88, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
    7. Ito, Takatoshi & Roley, V. Vance, 1987. "News from the U.S. and Japan : Which moves the yen/dollar exchange rate?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 255-277, March.
    8. Ito, Takatoshi, 1990. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Micro Survey Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 434-449, June.
    9. Phylaktis, Kate, 1997. "Capital market integration in the Pacific-Basin region: An analysis of real interest rate linkages," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 195-213, June.
    10. V. Vance Roley, 1986. "U.S. Monetary Policy Regimes and U.S.-Japan Financial Relations," NBER Working Papers 1858, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Takatoshi Ito & V. Vance Roley, 1988. "Intraday Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate Movements: News or Noise?," NBER Working Papers 2703, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2010. "Testing the hypothesis of market efficiency in the Taiwan-US forward exchange market since 1990," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(1), pages 121-132.
    13. Chyng-Hua Shen, 1997. "Testing for foreign exchange market efficiency - a trivariate vector autoregressive approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(6), pages 711-719.
    14. Phylaktis, Kate, 1999. "Capital market integration in the Pacific Basin region: an impulse response analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 267-287, February.
    15. Bhatta, Guna Raj & Nepal, Rabindra & Harvie, Charles & Jayanthakumaran, Kankesu, 2022. "Testing for the uncovered interest parity condition in a small open economy: A state space modelling approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    16. Firanchuk, Alexander (Фиранчук, Александр), 2017. "Illegal Re-Export and Analysis of the Effectiveness of the Russian Food Embargo in 2014 [Незаконный Реэкспорт И Анализ Эффективности Российского Продовольственного Эмбарго 2014 Года]," Working Papers 041705, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Frenkel, Jacob A. & Mussa, Michael L., 1985. "Asset markets, exchange rates and the balance of payments," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 14, pages 679-747, Elsevier.
    2. Bhatti, Razzaque H., 2014. "The existence of uncovered interest parity in the CIS countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 227-241.
    3. Hodrick, Robert J. & Srivastava, Sanjay, 1984. "An investigation of risk and return in forward foreign exchange," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 5-29, April.
    4. Brenner, Robin J. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Arbitrage, Cointegration, and Testing the Unbiasedness Hypothesis in Financial Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(1), pages 23-42, March.
    5. Kenneth A. Froot & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1986. "Interpreting Tests of Forward Discount Bias Using Survey Data on Exchange Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 1963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Simpson, Marc W. & Grossmann, Axel, 2014. "An examination of the forward prediction error of U.S. dollar exchange rates and how they are related to bid-ask spreads, purchasing power parity disequilibria, and forward premium asymmetry," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 221-238.
    7. Ross Levine, 1988. "The forward exchange rate bias: a new explanation," International Finance Discussion Papers 338, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Wang, Peijie & Jones, Trefor, 2002. "Testing for efficiency and rationality in foreign exchange markets--a review of the literature and research on foreign exchange market efficiency and rationality with comments," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 223-239, April.
    9. Robert E. Cumby & Maurice Obstfeld, 1984. "International Interest Rate and Price Level Linkages under Flexible Exchange Rates: A Review of Recent Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 121-152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Gregory, Allan W. & McCurdy, Thomas H., 1986. "The unbiasedness hypothesis in the forward foreign exchange market: A specification analysis with application to France, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and West Germany," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 365-381, April.
    11. Vajanne, Laura, . "The Exchange Rate Under Target Zones," ETLA A, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy, number 16, June.
    12. Baillie, Richard T. & Diebold, Francis X. & Kapetanios, George & Kim, Kun Ho, 2023. "A new test for market efficiency and uncovered interest parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    13. Peggy Swanson, 1998. "Spot and forward exchange rates as predictors of future spot rates: trends in exchange market value and the contribution of new information," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 22(2), pages 129-138, June.
    14. Verschoor, Willem F. C. & Wolff, Christian C. P., 2001. "Exchange risk premia, expectations formation and "news" in the Mexican peso/U.S. dollar forward exchange rate market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 157-174.
    15. Gregory, Allan W. & McCurdy, Thomas H., 1984. "Testing the unbiasedness hypothesis in the forward foreign exchange market: A specification analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 357-368, December.
    16. West, Kenneth D., 1987. "A standard monetary model and the variability of the deutschemark-dollar exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1-2), pages 57-76, August.
    17. Winston T. Lin, 1999. "Dynamic and Stochastic Instability and the Unbiased Forward Rate Hypothesis: A Variable Mean Response Approach," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 3(3), pages 173-221, September.
    18. Raj Aggarwal & Winston T. Lin & Sunil K. Mohanty, 2008. "Are Forward Exchange Rates Rational Forecasts of Future Spot Rates? An Improved Econometric Analysis for the Major Currencies," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 12(1-2), pages 1-20, March-Jun.
    19. Stephen J. Turnovsky & Katrina M. Ball, 1983. "Covered Interest Parity and Speculative Efficiency: Some Empirical Evidence for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 59(3), pages 271-280, September.
    20. Hu, Xiaoqiang, 1997. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 699-718, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1493. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.