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Forward foreign exchange rates and expected future spot rates

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  • Christian Wolff

Abstract

This paper explores whether knowledge of the time-series properties of the premium in the pricing of forward foreign exchange can be usefully exploited in forecasting future spot exchange rates. Signal-extraction techniques, based on recursive application of the Kalman filter, are used to measure the premium. Predictions using premium models compare favourably with those obtained from the use of the forward rate as a predictor of the future spot rate. The results also provide an interesting description of the time-series properties of the premium

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Wolff, 2000. "Forward foreign exchange rates and expected future spot rates," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 371-377.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:10:y:2000:i:4:p:371-377
    DOI: 10.1080/09603100050031499
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Rahul Roy & Shijin Santhakumar, 2014. "Time-varying global financial market inefficiency: an instance of pre-, during, and post-subprime crisis," Post-Print hal-01660506, HAL.
    3. Radim Gottwald, 2015. "The Forecasting of Spot Exchange Rates Based on the Forward Exchange Rates," MENDELU Working Papers in Business and Economics 2015-52, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    4. Ron Jongen & Willem F.C. Verschoor & Christian C.P. Wolff, 2008. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Survey And Synthesis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 140-165, February.
    5. Christian Dunis & Jia Miao, 2007. "Trading foreign exchange portfolios with volatility filters: the carry model revisited," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 249-255.
    6. TAKAGI Shinji & ESAKA Taro, 2001. "Risk Premiums and Exchange Rate Expectations: A Reassessment of the So-Called Dollar Peg Policies of Crisis East Asian Countries, 1994-97," ESRI Discussion paper series 003, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

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