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Forward Discount Bias, Nalebuff's Envelope Puzzle, and the Siegel Paradox in Foreign Exchange

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  • Edlin, Aaron S.

Abstract

The bias of forward exchange rates as a predictor of future spot rates is typically explained or decomposed as (1) a risk premium and (2) a convexity term which accounts for the fact that, when there is stochastic inflation, nominal gains from forward currency speculation are higher than real ones and correspondingly losses are smaller. We use Nalebuff's envelope puzzle to explain a third source of bias which involves real profits from foreign exchange speculation. Both the "real profit" bias and stochastic inflation bias arise from convexity of g(s)=1/s and so derive from Jensen's inequality as observed by Siegel (1972).

Suggested Citation

  • Edlin, Aaron S., 2002. "Forward Discount Bias, Nalebuff's Envelope Puzzle, and the Siegel Paradox in Foreign Exchange," Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics, Working Paper Series qt2wc1p9pw, Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:oplwec:qt2wc1p9pw
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    1. Lewis, Karen K., 1995. "Puzzles in international financial markets," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 37, pages 1913-1971, Elsevier.
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    Cited by:

    1. Keivan Mallahi-Karai & Pedram Safari, 2018. "Future exchange rates and Siegel's paradox," Papers 1805.03347, arXiv.org.
    2. Mallahi-Karai, Keivan & Safari, Pedram, 2018. "Future exchange rates and Siegel's paradox," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 168-172.

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