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Dynamic credit default swap curves in a network topology

Author

Listed:
  • Xiu Xu
  • Cathy Yi-Hsuan Chen
  • Wolfgang Karl Härdle

Abstract

Systemically important banks are connected and their default probabilities have dynamic dependencies. An extraction of default factors from cross-sectional credit default swap (CDS) curves allows us to analyze the shape and the dynamics of default probabilities. In extending the Dynamic Nelson Siegel (DNS) model to an across firm multivariate setting, and employing the generalized variance decomposition of Diebold and Yilmaz [On the network topology of variance decompositions: Measuring the connectedness of financial firms. J. Econom., 2014, 182(1), 119–134], we are able to establish a DNS network topology. Its geometry yields a platform to analyze the interconnectedness of long-, middle- and short-term default factors in a dynamic fashion and to forecast the CDS curves. Our analysis concentrates on 10 financial institutions with CDS curves comprising of a wide range of time-to-maturities. The extracted level factor representing long-term default risk shows a higher level of total connectedness than those derived for short-term and middle-term default risk, respectively. US banks contributed more to the long-term default spillover before 2012, whereas European banks were major default transmitters during and after the European debt crisis, both in the long-term and short-term. The comparison of the network DNS model with alternatives proposed in the literature indicates that our approach yields superior forecast properties of CDS curves.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiu Xu & Cathy Yi-Hsuan Chen & Wolfgang Karl Härdle, 2019. "Dynamic credit default swap curves in a network topology," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(10), pages 1705-1726, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:19:y:2019:i:10:p:1705-1726
    DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2019.1585560
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Cathy Yi-Hsuan & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Okhrin, Yarema, 2017. "Tail event driven networks of SIFIs," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2017-004, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    2. Chen, Cathy Yi-Hsuan & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Okhrin, Yarema, 2019. "Tail event driven networks of SIFIs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 208(1), pages 282-298.
    3. Qian, Biyu & Wang, Gang-Jin & Feng, Yusen & Xie, Chi, 2022. "Partial cross-quantilogram networks: Measuring quantile connectedness of financial institutions," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    4. Bax, Karoline & Bonaccolto, Giovanni & Paterlini, Sandra, 2024. "Spillovers in Europe: The role of ESG," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    5. Bingkai Wang & Xi Luo & Yi Zhao & Brian Caffo, 2021. "Semiparametric partial common principal component analysis for covariance matrices," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 77(4), pages 1175-1186, December.
    6. Badics, Milan Csaba & Huszar, Zsuzsa R. & Kotro, Balazs B., 2023. "The impact of crisis periods and monetary decisions of the Fed and the ECB on the sovereign yield curve network," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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