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The Unbiasedness Hypothesis in the Freight Forward Market: Evidence from Cointegration Tests

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  • Manolis Kavussanos
  • Ilias Visvikis
  • David Menachof

Abstract

The current paper investigates the unbiasedness hypothesis of Forward Freight Agreement (FFA) prices in the freight over-the-counter (OTC) forward market trades. Cointegration techniques are employed to examine the hypothesis. The results indicate that: FFA prices one and two months before maturity are unbiased predictors of the realised spot freight rates for all investigated shipping routes; three months FFA prices for panamax Pacific routes are unbiased predictors of spot prices, while FFA prices for panamax Atlantic routes are found to be biased predictors of spot prices. This diverse evidence suggests that the validity of the unbiasedness hypothesis depends on the specific characteristics of the market under investigation, the selected trading route and the time to maturity of the contract. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2005

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  • Manolis Kavussanos & Ilias Visvikis & David Menachof, 2005. "The Unbiasedness Hypothesis in the Freight Forward Market: Evidence from Cointegration Tests," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 241-266, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:revdev:v:7:y:2005:i:3:p:241-266
    DOI: 10.1007/s11147-004-4811-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexandridis, George & Kavussanos, Manolis G. & Kim, Chi Y. & Tsouknidis, Dimitris A. & Visvikis, Ilias D., 2018. "A survey of shipping finance research: Setting the future research agenda," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 164-212.
    2. Kapil Gupta & Balwinder Singh, 2009. "Information Memory and Pricing Efficiency of Futures Contracts," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 8(2), pages 191-250, May.
    3. Roar Adland & Haiying Jia, 2017. "Simulating physical basis risks in the Capesize freight market," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 19(2), pages 196-210, June.
    4. Evangelia Kasimati & Nikolaos Veraros, 2018. "Accuracy of forward freight agreements in forecasting future freight rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(7), pages 743-756, February.
    5. Jingbo Yin & Meifeng Luo & Lixian Fan, 2017. "Dynamics and interactions between spot and forward freights in the dry bulk shipping market," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(2), pages 271-288, February.
    6. Kavussanos, Manolis G. & Visvikis, Ilias D., 2004. "Market interactions in returns and volatilities between spot and forward shipping freight markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 2015-2049, August.
    7. Batchelor, Roy & Alizadeh, Amir & Visvikis, Ilias, 2007. "Forecasting spot and forward prices in the international freight market," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 101-114.
    8. Goulas, Lambros & Skiadopoulos, George, 2012. "Are freight futures markets efficient? Evidence from IMAREX," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 644-659.
    9. Wolfgang Bessler & Wolfgang Drobetz & Jörg Seidel, 2008. "Ship funds as a new asset class: An empirical analysis of the relationship between spot and forward prices in freight markets," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(2), pages 102-120, July.
    10. Amir H. Alizadeh & Roar Os Ådland & Steen Koekebakker, 2007. "Predictive power and unbiasedness of implied forward charter rates," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 385-403.
    11. Evangelia Kasimati & Nikolaos Veraros, 2017. "Is there accuracy of forward freight agreements in forecasting future freight rates? An empirical investigation," Working Papers 230, Bank of Greece.
    12. Amir Alizadeh & Konstantina Kappou & Dimitris Tsouknidis & Ilias Visvikis, 2014. "Liquidity Risk Premia in the International Shipping Derivatives Market," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2014-15, Henley Business School, University of Reading.

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