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One Simple Test of Samuelson's Dictum for the Stock Market

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Abstract

Samuelson [1998] offered the dictum that the stock market is "micro efficient" but "macro inefficient." That is, the efficient markets hypothesis works much better for individual stocks than it does for the aggregate stock market. In this paper, we present one simple test, based both on regressions and on a simple scatter diagram that vividly illustrates that there is some truth to Samuelson's dictum. The data comprise all U.S. firms on the CRSP tape that have survived since 1926.

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  • Jeeman Jung & Robert J. Shiller, 2002. "One Simple Test of Samuelson's Dictum for the Stock Market," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1386, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1386
    Note: CFP 1183.
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "From Efficient Markets Theory to Behavioral Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 83-104, Winter.
    2. Nick Bloom, 2006. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks: Firm Level Estimation and a 9/11 Simulation," CEP Discussion Papers dp0718, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Market efficiency; Random walk; Dividend yield; Dividend price ratio; Present value; Excess volatility; Gordon model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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