IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolet/v171y2018icp218-221.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Choices between OLS with robust inference and feasible GLS in time series regressions

Author

Listed:
  • Baillie, Richard T.
  • Kim, Kun Ho

Abstract

We consider the practice of estimating static regressions by OLS from time series data and using robust standard errors for inference. Depending on the form of exogeneity being violated, the asymptotic bias of OLS can exceed that of GLS. Feasible GLS, where the error process is approximated by a sieve autoregression, can dominate the OLS approach with robust standard errors both in terms of bias and MSE for some regions of the parameter space.

Suggested Citation

  • Baillie, Richard T. & Kim, Kun Ho, 2018. "Choices between OLS with robust inference and feasible GLS in time series regressions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 218-221.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:171:y:2018:i:c:p:218-221
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2018.07.036
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176518302969
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econlet.2018.07.036?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-853, October.
    2. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1973. "Generalized Least Squares with an Estimated Autocovariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(4), pages 723-732, July.
    3. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    4. Christopher A. Sims, 2010. "But Economics Is Not an Experimental Science," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(2), pages 59-68, Spring.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Richard T. Baillie & Kun Ho Kim, 2016. "Is Robust Inference with OLS Sensible in Time Series Regressions? Investigating Bias and MSE Trade-offs with Feasible GLS and VAR Approaches," Working Paper series 16-04, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    2. Hakkio, Craig S, 1981. "Expectations and the Forward Exchange Rate," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 22(3), pages 663-678, October.
    3. Brian H. Boyer & Taylor D. Nadauld & Keith P. Vorkink & Michael S. Weisbach, 2023. "Discount‐Rate Risk in Private Equity: Evidence from Secondary Market Transactions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(2), pages 835-885, April.
    4. Darvas, Zsolt, 1999. "Az árfolyamsávok empirikus modelljei és a devizaárfolyam sávon belüli előrejelezhetetlensége [Empirical models of exchange rate target zones]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 507-529.
    5. Campbell, John Y., 2001. "Why long horizons? A study of power against persistent alternatives," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 459-491, December.
    6. Atanasov, Victoria, 2021. "Unemployment and aggregate stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    7. Nucera, Federico & Valente, Giorgio, 2013. "Carry trades and the performance of currency hedge funds," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 407-425.
    8. Lukas Menkhoff & Rafael Rebitzky & Michael Schroder, 2008. "Do dollar forecasters believe too much in PPP?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 261-270.
    9. repec:adr:anecst:y:1998:i:52:p:01 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Choi, Jin Ho & Suh, Sangwon, 2021. "A filtered currency carry trade," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    11. Sarno, Lucio & Schneider, Paul & Wagner, Christian, 2012. "Properties of foreign exchange risk premiums," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 279-310.
    12. repec:ehl:lserod:53906 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Accominotti, Olivier & Chambers, David, 2016. "If You're So Smart: John Maynard Keynes and Currency Speculation in the Interwar Years," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 76(2), pages 342-386, June.
    14. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1991. "The term structure of interest rate differentials in a target zone : Theory and Swedish data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 87-116, August.
    15. Tim Bollerslev & Benjamin Hood & John Huss & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2018. "Risk Everywhere: Modeling and Managing Volatility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(7), pages 2729-2773.
    16. Back, Kerry & Crotty, Kevin & Kazempour, Seyed Mohammad, 2022. "Validity, tightness, and forecasting power of risk premium bounds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 732-760.
    17. Maxym Chaban & Graham M. Voss, 2016. "Is Canada an optimal currency area? An inflation targeting perspective," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(2), pages 738-771, May.
    18. Mr. Luis Brandão-Marques & Mr. Gaston Gelos & Mr. Thomas Harjes & Ms. Ratna Sahay & Yi Xue, 2020. "Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies," IMF Working Papers 2020/035, International Monetary Fund.
    19. David R. Haab & Thomas Nitschka, 2020. "Carry trade and forward premium puzzle from the perspective of a safe‐haven currency," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 376-394, May.
    20. Hamid Baghestani, 2006. "An evaluation of the professional forecasts of U.S. long‐term interest rates," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(2), pages 177-191.
    21. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Ou, Yangguoyi, 2012. "Analyzing interest rate risk: Stochastic volatility in the term structure of government bond yields," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 2988-3007.
    22. Narayana R. Kocherlakota & Luigi Pistaferri, 2007. "Household Heterogeneity and Real Exchange Rates," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(519), pages 1-25, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    OLS; GLS; Feasible GLS; Asymptotic bias; Robust inference;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:171:y:2018:i:c:p:218-221. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.