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Economic activity and momentum profits: Further evidence

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  • Maio, Paulo
  • Philip, Dennis

Abstract

We show that economic activity plays an important role in explaining momentum-based anomalies. A simple two-factor model containing the market and alternative indicators of economic activity as risk factors—industrial production, capacity utilization rate, retail sales, and a broad economic index—offers considerable explanatory power for the cross-section of price and industry momentum portfolios. Hence past winners enjoy higher average returns than past losers because they have larger macroeconomic risk. The model compares favorably with popular multifactor models used in the literature. Moreover, our model is consistent with Merton’s Intertemporal CAPM framework, since the macro variables forecast stock market volatility and future economic activity.

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  • Maio, Paulo & Philip, Dennis, 2018. "Economic activity and momentum profits: Further evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 466-482.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:88:y:2018:i:c:p:466-482
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2018.01.013
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    Cited by:

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    6. Yin, Libo & Wei, Ya, 2020. "Aggregate profit instability and time variations in momentum returns: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    7. Chen, Jiun-Lin (Alex) & Hwang, Hyoseok (David), 2019. "Business cycle, expected return and momentum payoffs," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 83-89.
    8. Lee, King Fuei, 2023. "Aging Population and its Effects on Long-Horizon Momentum Profits," MPRA Paper 120931, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Gao, Yang & Leung, Henry & Satchell, Stephen, 2022. "Partial moment momentum," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    10. Ilan Cooper & Liang Ma & Paulo Maio, 2022. "What Does the Cross‐Section Tell About Itself? Explaining Equity Risk Premia with Stock Return Moments," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(1), pages 73-118, February.
    11. Lin, Qi, 2021. "The q5 model and its consistency with the intertemporal CAPM," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Momentum; Industry momentum; Asset pricing; Cross-section of stock returns; Intertemporal CAPM; Macro risk factors; Linear multifactor models; Predictability of stock returns;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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