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Patterns in Exchange Rate Forecasts for 25 Currencies

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  • Chinn, Menzie
  • Frankel, Jeffrey

Abstract

The properties of exchange rate forecasts are investigated, with a data set encompassing a broad cross section of currencies. Over the entire sample, expectations appear to be biased. This result is robust to the possibility of random measurement error in the survey measures. There appear to be statistically significant differences in the degree of bias in subgroupings of the data: (i) the bias is lower for the high-inflation countries; (ii) the bias is greater for the major currencies studied in earlier papers; and (iii) the bias is also greater for the EMS currencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Chinn, Menzie & Frankel, Jeffrey, 1993. "Patterns in Exchange Rate Forecasts for 25 Currencies," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233182, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ucbewp:233182
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.233182
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    Keywords

    Financial Economics;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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