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Carry trade and forward premium puzzle from the perspective of a safe‐haven currency

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  • David R. Haab
  • Thomas Nitschka

Abstract

Swiss franc exchange rates exhibit safe‐haven characteristics, which suggest a close link between the forward premium puzzle and profitability of the carry trade. Our analysis of Swiss franc exchange rates shows that the two phenomena are distinct from each other, thus corroborating U.S. dollar evidence. Persistent exposures to two different global shocks drive the two phenomena in Swiss franc exchange rates. Moreover, we find significant links between expected average Swiss franc exchange rate changes and macroeconomic conditions during the period of the minimum Swiss franc exchange rate against the euro, but not during the rest of the sample period.

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  • David R. Haab & Thomas Nitschka, 2020. "Carry trade and forward premium puzzle from the perspective of a safe‐haven currency," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 376-394, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:28:y:2020:i:2:p:376-394
    DOI: 10.1111/roie.12455
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    1. Zigraiova, Diana & Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Novak, Jiri, 2021. "How puzzling is the forward premium puzzle? A meta-analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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