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The impact of jumps on carry trade returns

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  • Lee, Suzanne S.
  • Wang, Minho

Abstract

This paper investigates how jump risks are priced in currency markets. We find that currencies whose changes are more sensitive to negative market jumps provide significantly higher expected returns. The positive risk premium constitutes compensation for the extreme losses during periods of market turmoil. Using the empirical findings, we propose a jump modified carry trade strategy, which has approximately two-percentage-point (per annum) higher returns than the regular carry trade strategy. These findings result from the fact that negative jump betas are significantly related to the riskiness of currencies and business conditions.

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  • Lee, Suzanne S. & Wang, Minho, 2019. "The impact of jumps on carry trade returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(2), pages 433-455.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:131:y:2019:i:2:p:433-455
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2018.08.006
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    Cited by:

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    3. Serdengeçti, Süleyman & Sensoy, Ahmet & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2021. "Dynamics of return and liquidity (co) jumps in emerging foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    4. Choi, Jin Ho & Suh, Sangwon, 2022. "Conditionally-hedged currency carry trades," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    5. Aysan, Ahmet Faruk & Caporin, Massimiliano & Cepni, Oguzhan, 2024. "Not all words are equal: Sentiment and jumps in the cryptocurrency market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    6. Gbenga Ibikunle & Vito Mollica & Qiao Sun, 2021. "Jumps in foreign exchange spot rates and the informational efficiency of currency forwards," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(8), pages 1201-1219, August.
    7. Sensoy, Ahmet & Serdengeçti, Süleyman, 2020. "Impact of portfolio flows and heterogeneous expectations on FX jumps: Evidence from an emerging market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    8. Palwishah, Rana & Kashif, Muhammad & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Al-Faryan, Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh, 2024. "Asymmetric liquidity risk and currency returns before and during COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    9. Wenliang Guo, 2020. "Currency Regimes, Volatility Risks, and Carry Trades: The Option Value of Government Currency Intervention in Emerging Markets," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 10(3), pages 1-4.
    10. Lee, Suzanne S. & Wang, Minho, 2020. "Tales of tails: Jumps in currency markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    11. Liu, Yifan & Popova, Ivilina, 2023. "Threats to central bank independence and exchange rate volatility: High-frequency identification with Trump’s Fed tweets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    12. Hsu, Po-Hsuan & Taylor, Mark P. & Wang, Zigan & Xu, Qi, 2022. "Currency volatility and global technological innovation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    13. Liu, Yiye & Han, Liyan & Wu, You & Yin, Libo, 2022. "Do terrorist attacks matter for currency excess returns?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
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    15. Qian Zhang & Kuo-Jui Wu & Ming-Lang Tseng, 2019. "Exploring Carry Trade and Exchange Rate toward Sustainable Financial Resources: An application of the Artificial Intelligence UKF Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-26, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Jump beta; Jump modified carry trade; Foreign exchange rate; Carry trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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