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Carry Trade and Liquidity Risk: Evidence from Forward and Cross-Currency Swap Markets

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Abstract

This study empirically examines the effect of foreign exchange (FX) market liquidity risk and volatility on the excess returns of currency carry trades. In contrast to the existent literature, we construct an alternative proxy of liquidity risk - violations of no arbitrage bounds in the forward and currency swap markets. We also use volatility smile data to capture FX-market specific volatility. The sample data cover periods both before and after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Both proxies are significant in explaining the abnormal returns of carry trades, particularly after the GFC. Our findings provide substantial evidence that uncovered interest parity (UIP) puzzle can be resolved after controlling for liquidity risk and market volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Erik Schlogl & Yang Chang, 2012. "Carry Trade and Liquidity Risk: Evidence from Forward and Cross-Currency Swap Markets," Research Paper Series 310, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    • Handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:310
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    File URL: https://www.uts.edu.au/sites/default/files/qfr-archive-03/QFR-rp310.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jaroslav Baran & Jiří Witzany, 2014. "Konstrukce výnosových křivek v pokrizovém období [Yield Curve Construction after Crisis]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(1), pages 67-99.
    2. Alfeus, Mesias & Grasselli, Martino & Schlögl, Erik, 2020. "A consistent stochastic model of the term structure of interest rates for multiple tenors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    3. Mesias Alfeus, 2019. "Stochastic Modelling of New Phenomena in Financial Markets," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2019, January-A.
    4. Jaroslav Baran & Jiří Witzany, 2017. "Analysing Cross-Currency Basis Spreads," Working Papers 25, European Stability Mechanism.
    5. repec:uts:finphd:41 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. José Da Fonseca & Edem Dawui, 2021. "Semivariance and semiskew risk premiums in currency markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(3), pages 290-324, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    uncovered interest rate parity; carry trade; liquidity risk; no-arbitrage bound; volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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