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Moment estimation in Auerbach-Kotlikoff models: How well do they match the data?

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  • Alexander Ludwig

    (Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA))

Abstract

Despite their widespread use for the analysis of economic questions, a formal and systematic calibration methodology has not yet been developed for Auerbach-Kotlikoff (Auerbach and Kotlikoff 1987) overlapping generations (AK-OLG) models. Calibration as estimation in macroeconomics involves choosing free parameters by matching moments of simulated models with those of the data. This paper maps this approach into the framework of AK-OLG models. The paper further evaluates the back-fitting properties of three different versions of a prototype AK-OLG model along a number of dimensions of mostly US data for the time period 1960-2003.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Ludwig, 2005. "Moment estimation in Auerbach-Kotlikoff models: How well do they match the data?," MEA discussion paper series 05093, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    • Handle: RePEc:mea:meawpa:05093
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Ludwig & Dirk Krüger & Axel Börsch-Supan, 2009. "Demographic Change, Relative Factor Prices, International Capital Flows, and Their Differential Effects on the Welfare of Generations," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Policy in a Changing Environment, pages 385-414, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Krueger, Dirk & Ludwig, Alexander, 2007. "On the consequences of demographic change for rates of returns to capital, and the distribution of wealth and welfare," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 49-87, January.
    3. Jess Heinrich, 2006. "Steuerfinanzierung von Sozialleistungen? / Tax Funding of Social Security Benefits?: Verteilungs- und Effizienzeffekte einer Umfinanzierung von Sozialleistungen in der gesetzlichen Renten- und Kranken," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 226(4), pages 436-462, August.
    4. Alexander Ludwig, 2005. "Aging and Economic Growth: The Role of Factor Markets and of Fundamental Pension Reforms," MEA discussion paper series 05094, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical

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