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The information content of analyst recommendation revisions — Evidence from the Chinese stock market

Author

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  • Jiang, George J.
  • Lu, Liangliang
  • Zhu, Dongming

Abstract

The Chinese stock market has witnessed a dramatic increase of analyst coverage over the past years. While analyst revisions clearly exhibit optimistic biases, we find significant market reactions to both upgrades and downgrades. However, in contrast to findings in existing literature for other markets, our results show that market reactions to downgrades are generally weaker than to upgrades in the Chinese stock market. We examine two hypotheses, one related to short-sale restriction and the other to the behavior of individual investors, and show that the latter is a more plausible explanation of relatively weaker market reactions to downgrades in the Chinese stock market. Finally, we show that the added value of revisions cannot be entirely credited to a small group of “lead” analysts. Our study adds to the literature with findings on the role of analysts in emerging stock markets of unique institutional settings.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiang, George J. & Lu, Liangliang & Zhu, Dongming, 2014. "The information content of analyst recommendation revisions — Evidence from the Chinese stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-17.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:29:y:2014:i:c:p:1-17
    DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2014.03.002
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    3. Wu, Yanran & Liu, Tingting & Han, Liyan & Yin, Libo, 2018. "Optimistic bias of analysts' earnings forecasts: Does investor sentiment matter in China?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 147-163.
    4. Drienko, Jozef & Sault, Stephen J. & von Reibnitz, Anna H., 2017. "Company responses to exchange queries in real time," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 116-141.
    5. Wan, Xiaoyuan, 2024. "Margin-buying, short-selling, and stock valuation: Why is the effect reversed over time in China?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    6. Sébastien Galanti & Zahra Ben Braham, 2017. "Information efficiency on an emerging market: analysts' recommendations in Tunisia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(1), pages 377-390.
    7. Qingchong Chen & Xiong Xiong & Ya Gao, 2021. "Is information really efficient for the market? Evidence of confirmatory bias in China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(5), pages 5965-5997, December.
    8. Ting Zhang & George J. Jiang & Wei‐Xing Zhou, 2021. "Order imbalance and stock returns: New evidence from the Chinese stock market," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(2), pages 2809-2836, June.
    9. Liu, Chenye & Wu, Ying & Zhu, Dongming, 2022. "Price overreaction to up-limit events and revised momentum strategies in the Chinese stock market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    10. He, Feng & Ma, Yaming, 2019. "Do political connections decrease the accuracy of stock analysts' recommendations in the Chinese stock market?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 59-72.
    11. Wan, Xiaoyuan, 2020. "The impact of short-selling and margin-buying on liquidity: Evidence from the Chinese stock market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 104-118.
    12. Wan, Xiaoyuan, 2018. "Is the idiosyncratic volatility anomaly driven by the MAX or MIN effect? Evidence from the Chinese stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1-15.
    13. Lin, Mei-Chen, 2023. "Analyst coverage and the idiosyncratic skewness effect in the Taiwan stock market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
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    15. Liu, Chang & Sun, Peng & Zhu, Dongming, 2023. "Lottery preference, short-sale constraint, and the salience effect: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Analyst recommendation revisions; Market reactions; Chinese stock market; Short-sale restriction; Behavior of individual investors;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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