IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/12685.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Deep Value

Author

Listed:
  • Pedersen, Lasse Heje
  • Asness, Clifford S.
  • Liew, John M.
  • Thapar, Ashwin K

Abstract

We define “deep value†as episodes where the valuation spread between cheap and expensive securities is wide relative to its history. Examining deep value across global individual equities, equity index futures, currencies, and global bonds provides new evidence on competing theories for the value premium. Following these episodes, the value strategy has (1) high average returns; (2) low market betas, but high betas to a global value factor; (3) deteriorating fundamentals; (4) negative news sentiment; (5) selling pressure; (6) increased limits to arbitrage; and (7) increased arbitrage activity. Lastly, we find that deep value episodes tend to cluster and a deep value trading strategy generates excess returns not explained by traditional risk factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Pedersen, Lasse Heje & Asness, Clifford S. & Liew, John M. & Thapar, Ashwin K, 2018. "Deep Value," CEPR Discussion Papers 12685, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12685
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP12685
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Randolph B. Cohen & Christopher Polk & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2003. "The Value Spread," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 609-641, April.
    2. Ivo Welch & Amit Goyal, 2008. "A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1455-1508, July.
    3. Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2002. "What Drives Firm‐Level Stock Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 233-264, February.
    4. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:1975-1999 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-853, October.
    6. Acharya, Viral V. & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2005. "Asset pricing with liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 375-410, August.
    7. Lasse Pedersen, 2009. "When Everyone Runs for the Exit," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(4), pages 177-199, December.
    8. Laura Xiaolei Liu & Toni M. Whited & Lu Zhang, 2009. "Investment-Based Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(6), pages 1105-1139, December.
    9. Barberis, Nicholas & Greenwood, Robin & Jin, Lawrence & Shleifer, Andrei, 2015. "X-CAPM: An extrapolative capital asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 1-24.
    10. William N. Goetzmann & Dasol Kim, 2018. "Negative bubbles: What happens after a crash," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 24(2), pages 171-191, March.
    11. Ming Dong & David Hirshleifer & Scott Richardson & Siew Hong Teoh, 2006. "Does Investor Misvaluation Drive the Takeover Market?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(2), pages 725-762, April.
    12. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
    13. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2003. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 642-685, June.
    14. Frazzini, Andrea & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2014. "Betting against beta," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 1-25.
    15. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1986. "Asset pricing and the bid-ask spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 223-249, December.
    16. Lasse Heje Pedersen & Mark Mitchell & Todd Pulvino, 2007. "Slow Moving Capital," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 215-220, May.
    17. Chordia, Tarun & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2002. "Order imbalance, liquidity, and market returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 111-130, July.
    18. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2012. "Size, value, and momentum in international stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 457-472.
    19. Greenwood, Robin & Shleifer, Andrei & You, Yang, 2019. "Bubbles for Fama," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1), pages 20-43.
    20. Stambaugh, Robert F., 1999. "Predictive regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 375-421, December.
    21. Lee, Charles M C & Ready, Mark J, 1991. "Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 733-746, June.
    22. Joao Gomes & Leonid Kogan & Lu Zhang, 2003. "Equilibrium Cross Section of Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(4), pages 693-732, August.
    23. Barberis, Nicholas & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1998. "A model of investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 307-343, September.
    24. Chordia, Tarun & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2005. "Evidence on the speed of convergence to market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 271-292, May.
    25. Ball, R & Brown, P, 1968. "Empirical Evaluation Of Accounting Income Numbers," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(2), pages 159-178.
    26. Clifford S. Asness & Tobias J. Moskowitz & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2013. "Value and Momentum Everywhere," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 929-985, June.
    27. John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2008. "Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1509-1531, July.
    28. Alex Edmans & Itay Goldstein & Wei Jiang, 2012. "The Real Effects of Financial Markets: The Impact of Prices on Takeovers," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(3), pages 933-971, June.
    29. Lewellen, Jonathan & Nagel, Stefan, 2006. "The conditional CAPM does not explain asset-pricing anomalies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 289-314, November.
    30. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Presidential Address: Discount Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1047-1108, August.
    31. Liu, Naiping & Zhang, Lu, 2008. "Is the value spread a useful predictor of returns?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 199-227, August.
    32. Jonathan B. Berk & Richard C. Green & Vasant Naik, 1999. "Optimal Investment, Growth Options, and Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1553-1607, October.
    33. Chordia, Tarun & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2004. "Order imbalance and individual stock returns: Theory and evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 485-518, June.
    34. Liew, Jimmy & Vassalou, Maria, 2000. "Can book-to-market, size and momentum be risk factors that predict economic growth?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 221-245, August.
    35. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1995. "Size and Book-to-Market Factors in Earnings and Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 131-155, March.
    36. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1997. "The Limits of Arbitrage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 35-55, March.
    37. Chordia, Tarun & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2008. "Liquidity and market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 249-268, February.
    38. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 1999. "A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading, and Overreaction in Asset Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2143-2184, December.
    39. repec:bla:jfinan:v:58:y:2003:i:2:p:609-642 is not listed on IDEAS
    40. Lu Zhang, 2005. "The Value Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 67-103, February.
    41. Cochrane, John H, 1992. "Explaining the Variance of Price-Dividend Ratios," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 243-280.
    42. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    43. Hong, Harrison & Wang, Jiang & Yu, Jialin, 2008. "Firms as buyers of last resort," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 119-145, April.
    44. Philip Bond & Alex Edmans & Itay Goldstein, 2012. "The Real Effects of Financial Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 339-360, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    2. Stefan Nagel, 2013. "Empirical Cross-Sectional Asset Pricing," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 167-199, November.
    3. Calvet, Laurent E. & Betermier, Sebastien & Jo, Evan, 2019. "A Supply and Demand Approach to Equity Pricing," CEPR Discussion Papers 13974, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Discount Rates," NBER Working Papers 16972, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, June.
    6. Clifford S. Asness & Andrea Frazzini & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2019. "Quality minus junk," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 34-112, March.
    7. Sadka, Ronnie, 2006. "Momentum and post-earnings-announcement drift anomalies: The role of liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 309-349, May.
    8. Asness, Clifford & Frazzini, Andrea & Israel, Ronen & Moskowitz, Tobias J. & Pedersen, Lasse H., 2018. "Size matters, if you control your junk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(3), pages 479-509.
    9. Dionysia Dionysiou, 2015. "Choosing Among Alternative Long-Run Event-Study Techniques," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 158-198, February.
    10. Stephen A. Gorman & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2021. "The ABC’s of the alternative risk premium: academic roots," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(6), pages 405-436, October.
    11. Erica X. N. Li & Dmitry Livdan & Lu Zhang, 2009. "Anomalies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4301-4334, November.
    12. Mao, Mike Qinghao & Wei, K.C. John, 2014. "Price and earnings momentum: An explanation using return decomposition," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 332-351.
    13. Rytchkov, Oleg, 2010. "Expected returns on value, growth, and HML," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 552-565, September.
    14. Cenesizoglu, Tolga, 2011. "Size, book-to-market ratio and macroeconomic news," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 248-270, March.
    15. Cochrane, John H., 2005. "Financial Markets and the Real Economy," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(1), pages 1-101, July.
    16. Atif Ellahie, 2021. "Earnings beta," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 81-122, March.
    17. Stefano Cassella & Huseyin Gulen, 2018. "Extrapolation Bias and the Predictability of Stock Returns by Price-Scaled Variables," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(11), pages 4345-4397.
    18. Tobias J. Moskowitz, 2021. "Asset Pricing and Sports Betting," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 3153-3209, December.
    19. Victoria Atanasov & Thomas Nitschka, 2013. "The Size Effect in Value and Momentum Factors: Implications for the Cross-section of International Stock Returns," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-180/IV/DSF66, Tinbergen Institute.
    20. Zaremba, Adam & Cakici, Nusret & Bianchi, Robert J. & Long, Huaigang, 2023. "Interest rate changes and the cross-section of global equity returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Value investing; Market efficiency; Bubbles; Behavioral finance; Over-reaction; Demand pressure; Arbitrage; Noise;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12685. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.