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Overnight index swap market-based measures of monetary policy expectations

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  • Lloyd, Simon

    (Bank of England)

Abstract

I assess the use of overnight indexed swap (OIS) rates as measures of monetary policy expectations. I find that one to twelve-month US OIS rates provide measures of investors’ interest rate expectations that are comparable to those from corresponding-horizon federal funds futures rates, which have regularly been used as financial market-based measures of US interest rate expectations. More generally, I find that one to 24-month US, euro-zone and Japanese OIS rates and one to 18-month UK OIS rates tend to accurately measure expectations of future short-term interest rates. Motivated by these results, researchers can look to OIS rates as globally comparable measures of monetary policy expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Lloyd, Simon, 2018. "Overnight index swap market-based measures of monetary policy expectations," Bank of England working papers 709, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0709
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    Cited by:

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    2. Penalver Adrian, & Szczerbowicz Urszula, 2021. "Monetary policy measures during the first phase of the Covid-19 crisis [Les mesures de politique monétaire pendant la première phase de la crise de la Covid-19]," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 234.
    3. Aeimit Lakdawala & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2021. "Measuring monetary policy shocks in India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2021-021, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    4. Giancarlo Corsetti & Joao B. Duarte & Samuel Mann, 2020. "One Money, Many Markets: Monetary Transmission and Housing Financing in the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 2020/108, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Erik Heitfield & Yang-Ho Park, 2019. "Inferring Term Rates from SOFR Futures Prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-014, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Matthieu Bussière & Jin Cao & Jakob de Haan & Robert Hills & Simon Lloyd & Baptiste Meunier & Justine Pedrono & Dennis Reinhardt & Sonalika Sinha & Rhiannon Sowerbutts & Konstantin Styrin, 2021. "The interaction between macroprudential policy and monetary policy: Overview," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 1-19, February.
    7. Giancarlo Corsetti & Joao B Duarte & Samuel Mann, 2022. "One Money, Many Markets [Fixed Rate Versus Adjustable Rate Mortgages: Evidence from Euro Area Banks]," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(1), pages 513-548.
    8. Aeimit Lakdawala & Bhanu Pratap & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2023. "Impact of RBI’s monetary policy announcements on government bond yields: evidence from the pandemic," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 261-291, September.
    9. Pavel Solís, 2023. "Does the Exchange Rate Respond to Monetary Policy in Mexico? Solving an Exchange Rate Puzzle in Emerging Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(8), pages 2093-2113, December.
    10. Mr. Faisal Ahmed & Mahir Binici & Mr. Jarkko Turunen, 2022. "Monetary Policy Communication and Financial Markets in India," IMF Working Papers 2022/209, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Federal funds futures; overnight indexed swaps; monetary policy expectations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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