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Efficiency tests with overlapping data: an application to the currency options market

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  • Christian Dunis
  • Andre Keller

Abstract

This paper presents the results of an empirical study into the efficiency of the currency options market. The methodology derives from a simple model often applied to the spot and forward markets for foreign exchange. It relates the historic volatility of the underlying asset to the implied volatility of an option on the underlying at a specified prior time and then proceeds to test obvious hypotheses about the values of the coefficients. The study uses panel regression to address the problem of overlapping data which leads to dependence between observations. It also uses volatility data directly quoted on the market in order to avoid the biases which may occur when 'backing out' volatility from specific option pricing models. In general, the evidence rejects the hypothesis that the currency option market is efficient. This suggests that implied volatility is not the best predictor of future exchange rate volatility and should not be used without modification: the models presented in this paper could be a way of producing revised forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Dunis & Andre Keller, 1995. "Efficiency tests with overlapping data: an application to the currency options market," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(4), pages 345-366.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:1:y:1995:i:4:p:345-366
    DOI: 10.1080/13518479500000024
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    2. repec:bla:scandj:v:78:y:1976:i:2:p:200-224 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-853, October.
    4. Galai, Dan, 1977. "Tests of Market Efficiency of the Chicago Board Options Exchange," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 50(2), pages 167-197, April.
    5. Ronald Macdonald & Mark P. Taylor, 1992. "Exchange Rate Economics: A Survey," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(1), pages 1-57, March.
    6. Chamberlain, Gary, 1982. "Multivariate regression models for panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 5-46, January.
    7. Chiras, Donald P. & Manaster, Steven, 1978. "The information content of option prices and a test of market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2-3), pages 213-234.
    8. Klemkosky, Robert C & Resnick, Bruce G, 1979. "Put-Call Parity and Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(5), pages 1141-1155, December.
    9. MacDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P., 1989. "Foreign exchange market efficiency and cointegration : Some evidence from the recent float," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 63-68.
    10. Cumby, Robert E. & Huizinga, John & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1983. "Two-step two-stage least squares estimation in models with rational expectations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 333-355, April.
    11. Ian H. Giddy, 1983. "Foreign exchange options," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(2), pages 143-166, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kellard, Neil & Dunis, Christian & Sarantis, Nicholas, 2010. "Foreign exchange, fractional cointegration and the implied-realized volatility relation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 882-891, April.
    2. Bernoth, Kerstin & von Hagen, Jürgen, 2003. "The performance of the Euribor futures market: Effficiency and the impact of ECB policy announcements," ZEI Working Papers B 27-2003, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    3. Christian Dunis & Pierre Lequeux, 2000. "Intraday data and hedging efficiency in interest spread trading," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(4), pages 332-352.
    4. Christian Dunis & Jason Laws & Stephane Chauvin, 2003. "FX volatility forecasts and the informational content of market data for volatility," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 242-272.
    5. Kellard, Neil M. & Jiang, Ying & Wohar, Mark, 2015. "Spurious long memory, uncommon breaks and the implied–realized volatility puzzle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 36-54.
    6. Kerstin Bernoth & Jürgen von Hagen, 2004. "The Euribor Futures Market: Efficiency and the Impact of ECB Policy Announcements," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 1-24, March.

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