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Jan J. J. Groen

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Jan J J Groen & Clare Lombardelli, 2004. "Real exchange rates and the relative prices of non-traded and traded goods: an empirical analysis," Bank of England working papers 223, Bank of England.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Is Inflation in Argentina Above 100%?
      by Nicolas Cachanosky in Punto de Vista Economico on 2013-04-25 08:10:38

Working papers

  1. Gianluca Benigno & Julian di Giovanni & Jan J. J. Groen & Adam I. Noble, 2022. "Global Supply Chain Pressure Index: March 2022 Update," Liberty Street Economics 20220303, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Hall, Stephen G. & Tavlas, George S. & Wang, Yongli, 2023. "Drivers and spillover effects of inflation: The United States, the euro area, and the United Kingdom☆," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    2. Francesco Corsello & Marco Flaccadoro & Stefania Villa, 2023. "Quantity versus price dynamics: the role of energy and bottlenecks in the Italian industrial sector," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 781, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

  2. Belai Abbai & Ozge Akinci & Gianluca Benigno & Julian di Giovanni & Jan J. J. Groen & Ruth Cesar Heymann & Lawrence Lin & Adam I. Noble, 2022. "The Global Supply Side of Inflationary Pressures," Liberty Street Economics 20220128, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel, 2023. "Soft or strong: the art of monetary tightening," Working Papers hal-03954545, HAL.
    2. Zheng Liu & Thuy Lan Nguyen, 2023. "Global Supply Chain Pressures and U.S. Inflation," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2023(14), pages 1-6, June.

  3. Gianluca Benigno & Julian di Giovanni & Jan J. J. Groen & Adam I. Noble, 2022. "The GSCPI: A New Barometer of Global Supply Chain Pressures," Staff Reports 1017, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2023. "Shipping Cost Uncertainty, Endogenous Regime Switching and the Global Drivers of Inflation," CESifo Working Paper Series 10798, CESifo.
    2. Julian di Giovanni & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Alvaro Silva & Muhammed A. Yildirim, 2022. "Global Supply Chain Pressures, International Trade, and Inflation," Growth Lab Working Papers 188, Harvard's Growth Lab.
    3. Meyer, Brent H. & Prescott, Brian C. & Sheng, Xuguang Simon, 2023. "The impact of supply chain disruptions on business expectations during the pandemic," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    4. Hall, Stephen G. & Tavlas, George S. & Wang, Yongli, 2023. "Drivers and spillover effects of inflation: The United States, the euro area, and the United Kingdom☆," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    5. Otaviano Canuto, 2022. "War in Ukraine and Risks of Stagflation," Policy briefs on Economic Trends and Policies 2213, Policy Center for the New South.
    6. Knut Are Aastveit & Hilde C. Bjørnland & Jamie L. Cross & Helene Olsen, 2024. "Unveiling inflation: Oil Shocks, Supply Chain Pressures, and Expectations," Working Papers No 05/2024, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    7. Alberto Cavallo & Oleksiy Kryvtsov, 2022. "What Can Stockouts Tell Us About Inflation? Evidence from Online Micro Data," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Nuri Ersahin & Mariassunta Giannetti & Ruidi Huang, 2023. "Supply Chain Risk: Changes in Supplier Composition and Vertical Integration," NBER Working Papers 31134, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2024. "Geopolitical Risk and Stock Prices," Working Papers 2407, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
    10. Aspachs, Oriol & Graziano, Alberto & Mestres, Josep & Montalvo, Jose G. & Reynal-Querol, Marta, 2024. "Spending response to cash transfers to shield households from inflation: Evidence from bank accounts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    11. Bastianin, Andrea & Casoli, Chiara & Galeotti, Marzio, 2023. "The connectedness of Energy Transition Metals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    12. Szafranek, Karol & Szafrański, Grzegorz & Leszczyńska-Paczesna, Agnieszka, 2024. "Inflation returns. Revisiting the role of external and domestic shocks with Bayesian structural VAR," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 789-810.
    13. Serdar Kabaca & Kerem Tuzcuoglu, 2023. "Supply Drivers of US Inflation Since the COVID-19 Pandemic," Staff Working Papers 23-19, Bank of Canada.
    14. An, Zidong & Sheng, Xuguang Simon & Zheng, Xinye, 2023. "What is the role of perceived oil price shocks in inflation expectations?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    15. Xiwen Bai & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Yiliang Li & Francesco Zanetti, 2024. "The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory," NBER Working Papers 32098, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Nöller, Marvin & Balleer, Almut, 2023. "Monetary Policy in the Presence of Supply Constraints: Evidence from German Firm-level Data," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277638, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    17. Cajal-Grossi, Julia & Del Prete, Davide & Macchiavello, Rocco, 2023. "Supply chain disruptions and sourcing strategies," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120204, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Òscar Jordà & Fernanda Nechio, 2022. "Inflation and Wage Growth Since the Pandemic," Working Paper Series 2022-17, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    19. Francesco Corsello & Marco Flaccadoro & Stefania Villa, 2023. "Quantity versus price dynamics: the role of energy and bottlenecks in the Italian industrial sector," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 781, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    20. Diaz, Elena Maria & Cunado, Juncal & de Gracia, Fernando Perez, 2023. "Commodity price shocks, supply chain disruptions and U.S. inflation," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
    21. Patricia Toledo & Roberto Duncan, 2024. "Forecasting food price inflation during global crises," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(4), pages 1087-1113, July.
    22. Flavio V Vieira & Cleomar Gomes da Silva, 2024. "Global inflation before and after the covid-19 pandemic: a panel data approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 44(3), pages 889-903.
    23. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena & Martínez Hernández, Catalina, 2024. "Shocked to the core: a new model to understand euro area inflation," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 117.
    24. Elie Bouri & Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Ruipeng Liu, 2024. "Supply Chain Constraints and the Predictability of the Conditional Distribution of International Stock Market Returns and Volatility," Working Papers 202440, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    25. Hupka, Yuri, 2022. "Leverage and the global supply chain," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    26. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena & Martínez Hernández, Catalina, 2023. "What drives core inflation? The role of supply shocks," Working Paper Series 2875, European Central Bank.
    27. Todd E. Clark & Matthew V. Gordon, 2023. "The Impacts of Supply Chain Disruptions on Inflation," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2023(08), pages 1-8, May.
    28. Ginn, William, 2024. "Global supply chain disruptions and financial conditions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    29. Juan R. Hernández & Mateo Hoyos & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària, 2024. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets under Global Uncertainty," Working Papers DTE 634, CIDE, División de Economía.
    30. Balleer, Almut & Noeller, Marvin, 2023. "Monetary policy in the presence of supply constraints: Evidence from German firm-level data," Ruhr Economic Papers 1060, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    31. Viral V. Acharya & Matteo Crosignani & Tim Eisert & Christian Eufinger, 2023. "How Do Supply Shocks to Inflation Generalize? Evidence from the Pandemic Era in Europe," NBER Working Papers 31790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Dudda, Tom L. & Klein, Tony & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Walther, Thomas, 2022. "Common Drivers of Commodity Futures?," QBS Working Paper Series 2022/05, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.
    33. Ascari, Guido & Bonam, Dennis & Smadu, Andra, 2024. "Global supply chain pressures, inflation, and implications for monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    34. Kong, Fanna & Gao, Zhuoqiong & Oprean-Stan, Camelia, 2023. "Green bond in China: An effective hedge against global supply chain pressure?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    35. Almut Balleer & Marvin Noeller, 2023. "Monetary Policy in the Presence of Supply Constraints: Evidence from German Firm-Level Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 10261, CESifo.
    36. Raza, Hamid & Laurentjoye, Thibault & Byrialsen, Mikael Randrup & Valdecantos, Sebastian, 2023. "Inflation and the role of macroeconomic policies: A model for the case of Denmark," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 32-43.
    37. Hernández, Juan R. & Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel & Valencia, J. Eduardo, 2024. "Global supply chain inflationary pressures and monetary policy in Mexico," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    38. Omid Asadollah & Linda Schwartz Carmy & Md. Rezwanul Hoque & Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2024. "Geopolitical Risk, Supply Chains, and Global Inflation," Working Papers 2406, Florida International University, Department of Economics.

  4. Gianluca Benigno & Julian di Giovanni & Jan J. J. Groen & Adam I. Noble, 2022. "A New Barometer of Global Supply Chain Pressures," Liberty Street Economics 20220104, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Hall, Stephen G. & Tavlas, George S. & Wang, Yongli, 2023. "Drivers and spillover effects of inflation: The United States, the euro area, and the United Kingdom☆," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    2. Francesco Corsello & Marco Flaccadoro & Stefania Villa, 2023. "Quantity versus price dynamics: the role of energy and bottlenecks in the Italian industrial sector," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 781, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Fernando Cirelli & Mark Gertler, 2022. "Economic Winners Versus Losers and the Unequal Pandemic Recession," NBER Working Papers 29713, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Dudda, Tom L. & Klein, Tony & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Walther, Thomas, 2022. "Common Drivers of Commodity Futures?," QBS Working Paper Series 2022/05, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.
    5. Almut Balleer & Marvin Noeller, 2023. "Monetary Policy in the Presence of Supply Constraints: Evidence from German Firm-Level Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 10261, CESifo.

  5. Gianluca Benigno & Julian di Giovanni & Jan J. J. Groen & Adam I. Noble, 2022. "Global Supply Chain Pressure Index: May 2022 Update," Liberty Street Economics 20220518, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Hall, Stephen G. & Tavlas, George S. & Wang, Yongli, 2023. "Drivers and spillover effects of inflation: The United States, the euro area, and the United Kingdom☆," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    2. Francesco Corsello & Marco Flaccadoro & Stefania Villa, 2023. "Quantity versus price dynamics: the role of energy and bottlenecks in the Italian industrial sector," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 781, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Flavio V Vieira & Cleomar Gomes da Silva, 2024. "Global inflation before and after the covid-19 pandemic: a panel data approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 44(3), pages 889-903.

  6. Jan J. J. Groen & Michael Nattinger, 2020. "Putting the Current Oil Price Collapse into Historical Perspective," Liberty Street Economics 20200514, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Wheeler,Collette Mari & Baffes,John & Kabundi,Alain Ntumba & Kindberg-Hanlon,Gene & Nagle,Peter Stephen Oliver & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte, 2020. "Adding Fuel to the Fire : Cheap Oil during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9320, The World Bank.

  7. Jan J. J. Groen & Michael Nattinger & Adam I. Noble, 2020. "Measuring Global Financial Market Stresses," Staff Reports 940, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Pedro Gomis-Porqueras & Romina Ruprecht & Xuan Zhou, 2023. "A Financial Stress Index for a Small Open Economy: The Australian Case," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-029, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

  8. Gianluca Benigno & Jan J. J. Groen, 2020. "Uncertainty about Trade Policy Uncertainty," Staff Reports 919, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Appelbaum, Elie, 2021. "Implicit Trade in Risk and Risk Aversion," MPRA Paper 113000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Matthieu Crozet & Banu Demir & Beata Javorcik, 2022. "International Trade and Letters of Credit: A Double-Edged Sword in Times of Crises," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(2), pages 185-211, June.
    3. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2022. "Duration of WTO Membership and Investment-Oriented Remittances Flows," EconStor Preprints 251274, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    4. Norman V. Loayza & Steven Pennings, 2020. "Macroeconomic Policy in the Time of COVID-19," World Bank Publications - Reports 33540, The World Bank Group.
    5. Nina Biljanovska & Mr. Francesco Grigoli & Martina Hengge, 2017. "Fear Thy Neighbor: Spillovers from Economic Policy Uncertainty," IMF Working Papers 2017/240, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Jacquinot, Pascal & Lozej, Matija & Pisani, Massimiliano, 2020. "Macroeconomic effects of tariffs shocks: the role of the effective lower bound and the labour market," Working Paper Series 2434, European Central Bank.
    7. Haichao Fan & Guangyu Nie & Zhiwei Xu, 2023. "Market Uncertainty and International Trade," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 450-478, December.
    8. Bisset, Jordan & Czarnitzki, Dirk & Doherr, Thorsten, 2022. "Policy uncertainty and inventor mobility," ZEW Discussion Papers 22-044, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    9. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2023. "Duration of membership in the world trade organization and investment-oriented remittances inflows," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 258-277.
    10. Auboina, Marc & Borino, Floriana, 2022. "Applying import-adjustmed demand methodology to trade analysis during the COVID-19 crisis: What do we learn?," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2022-8, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    11. Michael Ryan, 2020. "A Narrative Approach to Creating Instruments with Unstructured and Voluminous Text: An Application to Policy Uncertainty," Working Papers in Economics 20/10, University of Waikato.
    12. Li, Jie, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty, contracting frictions and imports sourcing decisions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    13. Selçuk Gül & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "Time‐varying impact of global, region‐, and country‐specific uncertainties on the volatility of international trade," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(4), pages 691-700, October.
    14. Chris Muris & Horst Raff & Nicolas Schmitt & Frank Stähler, 2023. "Inventory, Sourcing, and the Effects of Trade Costs: Theory and Empirical Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 10253, CESifo.
    15. Hong, T., 2021. "Revisiting the Trade Policy Uncertainty Index," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2174, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    16. Khadka, Savin & Gopinath, Munisamy & Batarseh, Feras A., 2022. "Anomalies and Recoveries in Agricultural Trade," Commissioned Papers 329520, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.

  9. Jan J. J. Groen & Patrick Russo, 2016. "Lower Oil Prices and U.S. Economic Activity," Liberty Street Economics 20160503b, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Soma Patra, 2022. "Oil price shocks, firm entry and exit in a heterogeneous firm model," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(1), pages 349-378, February.
    2. Ali Fadul, 2021. "Does Organizational Justice Influence Employee Innovative Behavior in an Arabic Context? Evidence From the Libyan Oil Industry," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(3), pages 21582440211, September.
    3. Chen, Ruoyu & Iqbal, Najaf & Irfan, Muhammad & Shahzad, Farrukh & Fareed, Zeeshan, 2022. "Does financial stress wreak havoc on banking, insurance, oil, and gold markets? New empirics from the extended joint connectedness of TVP-VAR model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    4. Kim, Gil & Vera, David, 2019. "Recent drivers of the real oil price: Revisiting and extending Kilian's (2009) findings," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 201-210.

  10. Jan J. J. Groen & Patrick Russo, 2015. "Is Cheaper Oil Good News or Bad News for U.S. Economy?," Liberty Street Economics 20150608b, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Delle Chiaie, Simona & Ferrara, Laurent & Giannone, Domenico, 2018. "Common factors of commodity prices," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 51.

  11. Jan J. J. Groen & Menno Middeldorp, 2013. "Creating a History of U.S. Inflation Expectations," Liberty Street Economics 20130821, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Carr, Olivia G. & Jilani-Hyler, Nadia & Murray, Gregg R., 2022. "Identifying factors related to school closures due to COVID-19 in the Middle East and North Africa region," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    2. David Rozas & Steven Huckle, 2021. "Loosen control without losing control: Formalization and decentralization within commons‐based peer production," Journal of the Association for Information Science & Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 72(2), pages 204-223, February.

  12. Jan J. J. Groen & Kevin McNeil & Menno Middeldorp, 2013. "A New Approach for Identifying Demand and Supply Shocks in the Oil Market," Liberty Street Economics 20130325, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Lodge, David & Manu, Ana-Simona, 2019. "EME financial conditions: which global shocks matter?," Working Paper Series 2282, European Central Bank.
    2. Akram, Q. Farooq, 2020. "Oil price drivers, geopolitical uncertainty and oil exporters' currencies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    3. Gianluca Benigno & Julian di Giovanni & Jan J. J. Groen & Adam I. Noble, 2022. "The GSCPI: A New Barometer of Global Supply Chain Pressures," Staff Reports 1017, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Venditti, Fabrizio & Veronese, Giovanni, 2020. "Global financial markets and oil price shocks in real time," Working Paper Series 2472, European Central Bank.

  13. Tobias Adrian & Erkko Etula & Jan J. J. Groen, 2010. "Financial amplification of foreign exchange risk premia," Staff Reports 461, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Stefan Reitz & Dennis Umlandt, 2019. "Foreign Exchange Dealer Asset Pricing," Working Paper Series 2019-08, University of Trier, Research Group Quantitative Finance and Risk Analysis.
    2. Libo Yin & Jing Nie, 2021. "Intermediary asset pricing in currency carry trade returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(8), pages 1241-1267, August.
    3. Yin-Wong Cheung & Wenhao Wang, 2020. "Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Redux: Non- Uniform Effects," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2020_004, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    4. Mikhail Chernov & Magnus Dahlquist & Lars Lochstoer, 2023. "Pricing Currency Risks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(2), pages 693-730, April.
    5. Zhiguo He & Bryan Kelly & Asaf Manela, 2016. "Intermediary Asset Pricing: New Evidence from Many Asset Classes," NBER Working Papers 21920, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Bernard Walley, 2015. "Macroeconomic sources of foreign exchange risk premium: evidence from South Africa," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 39(2), pages 382-395, April.
    7. Reitz, Stefan & Umlandt, Dennis, 2021. "Currency returns and FX dealer balance sheets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    8. Dennis Umlandt, 2020. "Likelihood-based Dynamic Asset Pricing: Learning Time-varying Risk Premia from Cross-Sectional Models," Working Paper Series 2020-06, University of Trier, Research Group Quantitative Finance and Risk Analysis.

  14. Pesenti, Paolo & Groen, Jan J. J., 2010. "Commodity prices, commodity currencies, and global economic developments," CEPR Discussion Papers 7689, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Arezki, Rabah & Dumitrescu, Elena & Freytag, Andreas & Quintyn, Marc, 2014. "Commodity prices and exchange rate volatility: Lessons from South Africa's capital account liberalization," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 96-105.
    2. Delle Chiaie, Simona & Ferrara, Laurent & Giannone, Domenico, 2018. "Common factors of commodity prices," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 51.
    3. Crespo-Cuaresma, Jesus & Fortin, Ines & Hlouskova, Jaroslava & Obersteiner, Michael, 2021. "Regime-dependent commodity price dynamics: A predictive analysis," IHS Working Paper Series 28, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    4. Yip, Pick Schen & Brooks, Robert & Do, Hung Xuan, 2017. "Dynamic spillover between commodities and commodity currencies during United States Q.E," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 399-410.
    5. Rubaszek, Michał & Karolak, Zuzanna & Kwas, Marek, 2020. "Mean-reversion, non-linearities and the dynamics of industrial metal prices. A forecasting perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    6. Hedi Ben Haddad & Imed Mezghani & Abdessalem Gouider, 2021. "The Dynamic Spillover Effects of Macroeconomic and Financial Uncertainty on Commodity Markets Uncertainties," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-22, June.
    7. Wang, Yudong & Liu, Li & Wu, Chongfeng, 2020. "Forecasting commodity prices out-of-sample: Can technical indicators help?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 666-683.
    8. Chen, Shu-Ling & Jackson, John D. & Kim, Hyeongwoo & Resiandini, Pramesti, 2012. "What Drives Commodity Prices?," MPRA Paper 40711, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Hollstein, Fabian & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Tharann, Björn & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2021. "Predictability in commodity markets: Evidence from more than a century," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    10. Hasselgren, Anton & Peltomäki, Jarkko & Graham, Michael, 2020. "Speculator activity and the cross-asset predictability of FX returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    11. Domenico Ferraro & Ken Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Can oil prices forecast exchange rates?," Economics Working Papers 1461, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jan 2015.
    12. Jean-François Carpantier, 2019. "Commodity Prices In Empirical Research," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2020021, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    13. Lu, Xinjie & Ma, Feng & Li, Haibo & Wang, Jianqiong, 2023. "INE oil futures volatility prediction: Exchange rates or international oil futures volatility?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    14. Pincheira, Pablo & Hardy, Nicolás, 2021. "Forecasting aluminum prices with commodity currencies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    15. Rogoff, Kenneth S. & Chen, Yu-Chin & Rossi, Barbara, 2010. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," Scholarly Articles 29412033, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    16. Hardy, Nicolás & Ferreira, Tiago & Quinteros, Maria J. & Magner, Nicolás S., 2023. "“Watch your tone!”: Forecasting mining industry commodity prices with financial report tone," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).
    17. West, Kenneth D. & Wong, Ka-Fu, 2014. "A factor model for co-movements of commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 289-309.
    18. Ferraro, Domenico & Rogoff, Kenneth & Rossi, Barbara, 2015. "Can oil prices forecast exchange rates? An empirical analysis of the relationship between commodity prices and exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 116-141.
    19. Marek Kwas & Alessia Paccagnini & Michal Rubaszek, 2020. "Common factors and the dynamics of cereal prices. A forecasting perspective," CAMA Working Papers 2020-47, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    20. Pincheira, Pablo & Hardy, Nicolas, 2018. "Forecasting Base Metal Prices with Commodity Currencies," MPRA Paper 83564, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Pincheira, Pablo & Hardy, Nicolas, 2018. "The predictive relationship between exchange rate expectations and base metal prices," MPRA Paper 89423, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Pincheira Brown, Pablo & Hardy, Nicolás, 2019. "Forecasting base metal prices with the Chilean exchange rate," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 256-281.
    23. Liu, Chang & Hu, Zhenhua & Li, Yan & Liu, Shaojun, 2017. "Forecasting copper prices by decision tree learning," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 427-434.
    24. Atsushi Sekine & Takayuki Tsuruga, 2014. "Effects of Commodity Price Shocks on Inflation:A Cross-Country Analysis," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 038, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    25. Wen, Chufu & Zhu, Haoyang & Dai, Zhifeng, 2023. "Forecasting commodity prices returns: The role of partial least squares approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    26. Rafailidis Panagiotis & Katrakilidis Constantinos, 2021. "Do oil prices and exchange rates affect the US stock market? New evidence from the asymmetric cointegration approach," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 147-161.
    27. Pincheira-Brown, Pablo & Bentancor, Andrea & Hardy, Nicolás & Jarsun, Nabil, 2022. "Forecasting fuel prices with the Chilean exchange rate: Going beyond the commodity currency hypothesis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    28. Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra & Lya Paola Sierra, 2020. "Global vs Sectoral Factors and the Impact of the Financialization in Commodity Price Changes," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 859-879, September.
    29. Francesco Ravazzolo & Joaquin Vespignani, 2017. "World steel production: A new monthly indicator of global real economic activity," CAMA Working Papers 2017-42, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    30. Uddin, Gazi Salah & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric, 2013. "On the relationship between oil price and exchange rates: A wavelet analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 502-507.
    31. John Cotter & Emmanuel Eyiah-Donkor & Valerio Potì, 2023. "Commodity futures return predictability and intertemporal asset pricing," Post-Print hal-04192933, HAL.
    32. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L. & Arora, Vipin, 2020. "The relationship between oil prices and exchange rates: Revisiting theory and evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    33. Hyeongwoo Kim, 2013. "Are Global Food Prices Becoming More Volatile and More Persistent?," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2013-22, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    34. Wolfgang Pollan, 2013. "US Inflation and Crude Oil Prices. An International Perspective," WIFO Working Papers 451, WIFO.
    35. Kwas, Marek & Paccagnini, Alessia & Rubaszek, Michał, 2021. "Common factors and the dynamics of industrial metal prices. A forecasting perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    36. Gargano, Antonio & Timmermann, Allan, 2014. "Forecasting commodity price indexes using macroeconomic and financial predictors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 825-843.
    37. Singh, Vipul Kumar & Kumar, Pawan & Nishant, Shreyank, 2019. "Feedback spillover dynamics of crude oil and global assets indicators: A system-wide network perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 321-335.
    38. Ding, Liang & Vo, Minh, 2012. "Exchange rates and oil prices: A multivariate stochastic volatility analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 15-37.
    39. Gao, Lin & Süss, Stephan, 2015. "Market sentiment in commodity futures returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 84-103.
    40. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Kizys, Renatas, 2015. "Dynamic spillovers between commodity and currency markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 303-319.
    41. Bonnier, Jean-Baptiste, 2022. "Forecasting crude oil volatility with exogenous predictors: As good as it GETS?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    42. Buncic, Daniel & Moretto, Carlo, 2015. "Forecasting copper prices with dynamic averaging and selection models," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-38.
    43. Gagnon, Marie-Hélène & Manseau, Guillaume & Power, Gabriel J., 2020. "They're back! Post-financialization diversification benefits of commodities," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    44. Gazi Salah Uddin & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2013. "Measuring co-movement of oil price and exchange rate differential in Bangladesh," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 1922-1930.
    45. Wei Qiang & Aimei Lin & Chao Zhao & Zhenhua Liu & Manzhi Liu & Xiaozhen Wang, 2019. "The impact of international crude oil price fluctuation on the exchange rate of petroleum-importing countries: a summary of recent studies," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 95(1), pages 227-239, January.
    46. Ma, Feng & Wahab, M.I.M. & Zhang, Yaojie, 2019. "Forecasting the U.S. stock volatility: An aligned jump index from G7 stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 132-146.
    47. Tokuo Iwaisako, 2011. "Comment on "The Relationship between Commodity Prices and Currency Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Futures Markets"," NBER Chapters, in: Commodity Prices and Markets, pages 71-72, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    48. Tapia, Carlos & Coulton, Jeff & Saydam, Serkan, 2020. "Using entropy to assess dynamic behaviour of long-term copper price," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    49. Bork, Lasse & Kaltwasser, Pablo Rovira & Sercu, Piet, 2022. "Aggregation bias in tests of the commodity currency hypothesis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    50. Kyriazi, Foteini & Thomakos, Dimitrios D. & Guerard, John B., 2019. "Adaptive learning forecasting, with applications in forecasting agricultural prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1356-1369.

  15. Barnett, Alina & Groen, Jan J J & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2010. "Time-varying inflation expectations and economic fluctuations in the United Kingdom: a structural VAR analysis," Bank of England working papers 392, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Mirela Sorina Miescu, 2016. "IMF Programs and Sensitivity to External Shocks: An Empirical Application," Working Papers 791, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    2. Shayan Zakipour-Saber, 2019. "Monetary policy regimes and inflation persistence in the United Kingdom," Working Papers 895, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    3. Miles, William & Vijverberg, Chu-Ping, 2011. "Formal targets, central bank independence and inflation dynamics in the UK: A Markov-Switching approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 644-655.
    4. Eliana González & Munir Jalil & José Vicente Romero, 2010. "Inflación y expectativas de inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 618, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. Zakipour-Saber, Shayan, 2019. "State-dependent Monetary Policy Regimes," Research Technical Papers 4/RT/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    6. Domit, Sílvia & Jackson, Chris & Roberts-Sklar , Matt, 2015. "Do inflation expectations currently pose a risk to inflation?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 55(55), pages 165-180.
    7. Maule, Becky & Pugh, Alice, 2012. "Do inflation expectations currently pose a risk to the economy?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 53(1), pages 110-121.
    8. Harimohan, Rashmi, 2012. "How has the risk to inflation from inflation expectations evolved?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 52(2), pages 114-123.
    9. Baranowski, Paweł & Doryń, Wirginia & Łyziak, Tomasz & Stanisławska, Ewa, 2021. "Words and deeds in managing expectations: Empirical evidence from an inflation targeting economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 49-67.

  16. Jan J. J. Groen & George Kapetanios, 2009. "Model selection criteria for factor-augmented regressions," Staff Reports 363, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Pesenti, Paolo & Groen, Jan J. J., 2010. "Commodity prices, commodity currencies, and global economic developments," CEPR Discussion Papers 7689, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. John W. Galbraith & Victoria Zinde-Walsh, 2011. "Partially Dimension-Reduced Regressions with Potentially Infinite-Dimensional Processes," CIRANO Working Papers 2011s-57, CIRANO.
    3. Menzie D. Chinn & Kavan J. Kucko, 2010. "The Predictive Power of the Yield Curve across Countries and Time," NBER Working Papers 16398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Kapetanios, G & Price, SG & Young, G, 2017. "A UK financial conditions index using targeted data reduction: forecasting and structural identification," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 20328, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
    5. Westerlund, Joakim & Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 2013. "On the implementation and use of factor-augmented regressions in panel data," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 3-11.
    6. Antoine A. Djogbenou, 2017. "Model Selection In Factor-augmented Regressions With Estimated Factors," Working Paper 1391, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    7. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Stengos, Thanasis & Vravosinos, Orestis, 2019. "The effects of markets, uncertainty and search intensity on bitcoin returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 220-242.

  17. Groen, Jan J J & Kapetanios, George & Price, Simon, 2009. "Multivariate methods for monitoring structural change," Bank of England working papers 369, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Barigozzi, Matteo & Cho, Haeran & Fryzlewicz, Piotr, 2018. "Simultaneous multiple change-point and factor analysis for high-dimensional time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 206(1), pages 187-225.
    2. S. O. Tickle & I. A. Eckley & P. Fearnhead, 2021. "A computationally efficient, high‐dimensional multiple changepoint procedure with application to global terrorism incidence," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 184(4), pages 1303-1325, October.
    3. Jana Eklund & George Kapetanios & Simon Price, 2011. "Forecasting in the presence of recent structural change," CAMA Working Papers 2011-23, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Pape, Katharina & Wied, Dominik & Galeano, Pedro, 2016. "Monitoring multivariate variance changes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 54-68.
    5. Chiu, Ching-Wai (Jeremy) & Hayes, Simon & Kapetanios, George & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2019. "A new approach for detecting shifts in forecast accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1596-1612.
    6. Jana Eklund & George Kapetanios & Simon Price, 2013. "Robust Forecast Methods and Monitoring during Structural Change," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81, pages 3-27, October.
    7. Matteo Barigozzi & Lorenzo Trapani, 2017. "Sequential testing for structural stability in approximate factor models," Papers 1708.02786, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2020.
    8. KUROZUMI, Eiji & 黒住, 英司, 2016. "Monitoring Parameter Constancy with Endogenous Regressors," Discussion Papers 2016-01, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
    9. Lorenzo Trapani & Emily Whitehouse, 2020. "Sequential monitoring for cointegrating regressions," Papers 2003.12182, arXiv.org.
    10. Pierre Perron & Eduardo Zorita & Eiji Kurozumi, 2017. "Monitoring Parameter Constancy with Endogenous Regressors," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(5), pages 791-805, September.
    11. Zdeněk Hlávka & Marie Hušková & Simos G. Meintanis, 2020. "Change-point methods for multivariate time-series: paired vectorial observations," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 1351-1383, August.

  18. Jan J. J. Groen & George Kapetanios, 2009. "Parsimonious estimation with many instruments," Staff Reports 386, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. M. E. Bontempi & I. Mammi, 2014. "pca2: implementing a strategy to reduce the instrument count in panel GMM," Working Papers wp960, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    2. Travaglini, Guido, 2010. "Supervised Principal Components and Factor Instrumental Variables. An Application to Violent CrimeTrends in the US, 1982-2005," MPRA Paper 22077, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Bontempi, Maria Elena & Mammi, Irene, 2012. "A strategy to reduce the count of moment conditions in panel data GMM," MPRA Paper 40720, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  19. Jan J. J. Groen & Richard Paap & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2009. "Real-Time Inflation Forecasting in a Changing World," Working Paper 2009/16, Norges Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Roberto Casarin & Stefano Grassi & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2016. "Dynamic Predictive Density Combinations for Large Data Sets in Economics and Finance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-084/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 03 Jul 2017.
    2. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2020. "Does the Phillips curve help to forecast euro area inflation?," Working Paper Series 2471, European Central Bank.
    3. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2012. "Time-varying Combinations of Predictive Densities using Nonlinear Filtering," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-118/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    4. Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Advances in Forecasting Under Instability," Working Papers 11-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    5. Krzysztof DRACHAL, 2020. "Forecasting the Inflation Rate in Poland and U.S. Using Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) and Google Queries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 18-34, July.
    6. Guidolin, Massimo & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Tortora, Andrea Donato, 2013. "Alternative econometric implementations of multi-factor models of the U.S. financial markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 87-111.
    7. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Thorsrud, Leif Anders, 2017. "Forecasting GDP with global components: This time is different," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 153-173.
    8. Joshua C.C. Chan & Gary Koop & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Rodney W. Strachan, 2010. "Time Varying Dimension Models," Working Paper series 44_10, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    9. Davide Pettenuzzo & Rossen Valkanov & Allan Timmermann, 2014. "A Bayesian MIDAS Approach to Modeling First and Second Moment Dynamics," Working Papers 76, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
    10. Davide Pettenuzzo & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2015. "Optimal Portfolio Choice under Decision-Based Model Combinations," Working Papers No 9/2015, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    11. Emmanuel O. Akande & Elijah O. Akanni & Oyedamola F. Taiwo & Jeremiah D. Joshua & Abel Anthony, 2023. "Predicting inflation component drivers in Nigeria: a stacked ensemble approach," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-32, January.
    12. Andreas Karatahansopoulos & Georgios Sermpinis & Jason Laws & Christian Dunis, 2014. "Modelling and Trading the Greek Stock Market with Gene Expression and Genetic Programing Algorithms," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(8), pages 596-610, December.
    13. Nonejad, Nima, 2019. "Forecasting aggregate equity return volatility using crude oil price volatility: The role of nonlinearities and asymmetries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    14. Francesco Ravazzolo & Shaun P. Vahey, 2010. "Forecast densities for economic aggregates from disaggregate ensembles," Working Paper 2010/02, Norges Bank.
    15. Medel, Carlos A., 2015. "Forecasting Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Compact-Scale Global VAR Approach," MPRA Paper 67081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Jiawen Xu & Pierre Perron, 2015. "Forecasting in the presence of in and out of sample breaks," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2015-012, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    17. Nima Nonejad, 2020. "Does the price of crude oil help predict the conditional distribution of aggregate equity return?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 313-349, January.
    18. Bel, K. & Paap, R., 2013. "Modeling the impact of forecast-based regime switches on macroeconomic time series," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2013-25, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    19. Marco J. Lombardi & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2012. "Oil price density forecasts: exploring the linkages with stock markets," Working Paper 2012/24, Norges Bank.
    20. Nima Nonejad, 2013. "A Mixture Innovation Heterogeneous Autoregressive Model for Structural Breaks and Long Memory," CREATES Research Papers 2013-24, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    21. Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan & Valkanov, Rossen, 2016. "A MIDAS approach to modeling first and second moment dynamics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(2), pages 315-334.
    22. Felix Abramovich & Vadim Grinshtein, 2013. "Estimation of a sparse group of sparse vectors," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 100(2), pages 355-370.
    23. Mohsen Khezri & Seyed Ehsan Hosseinidoust & Mohammad Kazem Naziri, 2019. "Investigating the Temporary and Permanent Influential Variables on Iran Inflation Using TVP-DMA Models," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 23(1), pages 209-234, Winter.
    24. Constandina Koki & Stefanos Leonardos & Georgios Piliouras, 2020. "Do Cryptocurrency Prices Camouflage Latent Economic Effects? A Bayesian Hidden Markov Approach," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-19, March.
    25. Pijush Kanti Das & Prabir Kumar Das, 2024. "Improvement in Inflation Forecasting: Ensembling Text Mining with Macro Data in Machine Learning Models," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 16(6), pages 1-92, June.
    26. Gardberg, Malin, 2020. "Aggregate Consumption and Wealth in the Long Run: The Impact of Financial Liberalization," Working Paper Series 1339, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    27. Juan Antolin-Diaz & Thomas Drechsel & Ivan Petrella, 2014. "Tracking the Slowdown in Long-Run GDP Growth," Discussion Papers 1604, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), revised Jan 2016.
    28. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2011. "Combining Predictive Densities using Nonlinear Filtering with Applications to US Economics Data," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-172/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    29. Kuusela, Annika & Hännikäinen, Jari, 2017. "What do the shadow rates tell us about future inflation?," MPRA Paper 80542, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    30. Lombardi, Marco J. & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2016. "On the correlation between commodity and equity returns: Implications for portfolio allocation," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 45-57.
    31. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2018. "Variational Bayes inference in high-dimensional time-varying parameter models," MPRA Paper 87972, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    32. Florian Huber & Gary Koop & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2020. "Bayesian Inference in High-Dimensional Time-varying Parameter Models using Integrated Rotated Gaussian Approximations," Papers 2002.10274, arXiv.org.
    33. Stefano Grassi & Paolo Santucci de Magistris, 2013. "It’s all about volatility (of volatility): evidence from a two-factor stochastic volatility model," CREATES Research Papers 2013-03, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    34. Konstantin Styrin, 2018. "Forecasting inflation in Russia by Dynamic Model Averaging," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps39, Bank of Russia.
    35. Caterina Forti Grazzini & Massimo Guidolin, 2013. "Forecasting yield spreads under crisis-induced multiple breakpoints," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(18), pages 1656-1664, December.
    36. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2023. "Forecasting inflation with a zero lower bound or negative interest rates: Evidence from point and density forecasts," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 91(3), pages 171-232, June.
    37. Lennart Hoogerheide & Richard Kleijn & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. Van Dijk & Marno Verbeek, 2010. "Forecast accuracy and economic gains from Bayesian model averaging using time-varying weights," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 251-269.
    38. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2011. "Combining Predictive Densities using Bayesian Filtering with Applications to US Economics Data," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-003/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    39. Billé, Anna Gloria & Gianfreda, Angelica & Del Grosso, Filippo & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2023. "Forecasting electricity prices with expert, linear, and nonlinear models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 570-586.
    40. Yousuf, Kashif & Ng, Serena, 2021. "Boosting high dimensional predictive regressions with time varying parameters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 224(1), pages 60-87.
    41. Didier Nibbering & Richard Paap & Michel van der Wel, 2016. "A Bayesian Infinite Hidden Markov Vector Autoregressive Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 16-107/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 13 Oct 2017.
    42. Kjetil Martinsen & Francesco Ravazzolo & Fredrik Wulfsberg, 2011. "Forecasting macroeconomic variables using disaggregate survey data," Working Paper 2011/04, Norges Bank.
    43. Szafranek, Karol, 2019. "Bagged neural networks for forecasting Polish (low) inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1042-1059.
    44. Elena Andreou & Andros Kourtellos, 2018. "Scoring rules for simple forecasting models: The case of Cyprus GDP and its sectors," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 12(1), pages 59-73, June.
    45. Andriantomanga, Zo, 2023. "The role of survey-based expectations in real-time forecasting of US inflation," MPRA Paper 119904, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    46. Yuelin Liu & James Morley, 2013. "Structural Evolution of the Postwar U.S. Economy," Discussion Papers 2013-15A, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    47. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2009. "UK Macroeconomic Forecasting with Many Predictors: Which Models Forecast Best and When Do They Do So?," SIRE Discussion Papers 2009-40, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    48. Nima Nonejad, 2024. "Point forecasts of the price of crude oil: an attempt to “beat” the end-of-month random-walk benchmark," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(4), pages 1497-1539, October.
    49. Kalli, Maria & Griffin, Jim E., 2014. "Time-varying sparsity in dynamic regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(2), pages 779-793.
    50. Korobilis, Dimitris, 2014. "Data-based priors for vector autoregressions with drifting coefficients," SIRE Discussion Papers 2014-022, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    51. Oinonen, Sami & Vilmi, Lauri, 2021. "Analysing euro area inflation outlook with the Phillips curve," BoF Economics Review 5/2021, Bank of Finland.
    52. Tommaso Proietti & Martyna Marczak & Gianluigi Mazzi, 2015. "EuroMInd-D: A Density Estimate of Monthly Gross Domestic Product for the Euro Area," CEIS Research Paper 340, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 10 Apr 2015.
    53. Dimitris Korobilis, 2019. "High-dimensional macroeconomic forecasting using message passing algorithms," Working Papers 2019_07, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    54. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2014. "Forecasting in Nonstationary Environments: What Works and What Doesn't in Reduced-Form and Structural Models," Working Papers 819, Barcelona School of Economics.
    55. Dimitris Korobilis, 2010. "VAR Forecasting Using Bayesian Variable Selection," Working Paper series 51_10, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Apr 2011.
    56. Stefano Grassi & Nima Nonejad & Paolo Santucci De Magistris, 2017. "Forecasting With the Standardized Self‐Perturbed Kalman Filter," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 318-341, March.
    57. Roberto Casarin & Fausto Corradin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Nguyen Domenico Sartore, 2020. "A Scoring Rule for Factor and Autoregressive Models Under Misspecification," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 24(2), pages 66-103, June.
    58. Enja Erker, 2024. "Forecasting medical inflation in the European Union using the ARIMA model," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 48(1), pages 39-56.
    59. Wojciech Charemza & Carlos Diaz Vela & Svetlana Makarova, 2013. "Inflation fan charts, monetary policy and skew normal distribution," Discussion Papers in Economics 13/06, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    60. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2011. "Bayesian Combinations of Stock Price Predictions with an Application to the Amsterdam Exchange Index," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-082/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    61. Joscha Beckmann & Rainer Schüssler, 2014. "Forecasting Exchange Rates under Model and Parameter Uncertainty," CQE Working Papers 3214, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    62. Nima Nonejad, 2021. "An Overview Of Dynamic Model Averaging Techniques In Time‐Series Econometrics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 566-614, April.
    63. Niko Hauzenberger, 2020. "Flexible Mixture Priors for Large Time-varying Parameter Models," Papers 2006.10088, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2020.
    64. Hauzenberger, Niko, 2021. "Flexible Mixture Priors for Large Time-varying Parameter Models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 87-108.
    65. Daniele Bianchi & Massimo Guidolin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2013. "Macroeconomic factors strike back: A Bayesian change-point model of time-varying risk exposures and premia in the U.S. cross-section," Working Paper 2013/19, Norges Bank.
    66. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2009. "Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics," Working Paper series 47_09, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    67. Eric Eisenstat & Rodney Strachan, 2014. "Modelling Inflation Volatility," Working Paper series 43_14, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    68. Thu, Le Ha & Leon-Gonzalez, Roberto, 2021. "Forecasting macroeconomic variables in emerging economies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    69. Magnus Reif, 2018. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Forecasting Macroeconomic Aggregates," ifo Working Paper Series 265, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
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    71. Garcia, Márcio G.P. & Medeiros, Marcelo C. & Vasconcelos, Gabriel F.R., 2017. "Real-time inflation forecasting with high-dimensional models: The case of Brazil," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 679-693.
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    86. Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "Forecasting Inflation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2-56, Elsevier.
    87. Anthony Garratt & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey & Elizabeth C. Wakerly, 2009. "Real-time Inflation Forecast Densities from Ensemble Phillips Curves," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0910, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    88. Prüser, Jan, 2023. "Data-based priors for vector error correction models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 209-227.
    89. Davide Delle Monache & Stefano Grassi & Paolo Santucci de Magistris, 2017. "Does the ARFIMA really shift?," CREATES Research Papers 2017-16, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    90. Le Ha Thu & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez, 2021. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables in Emerging Economies: An Application to Vietnam," GRIPS Discussion Papers 21-03, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    91. Nonejad, Nima, 2020. "A comprehensive empirical analysis of the predictive impact of the price of crude oil on aggregate equity return volatility," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    92. Malin Gardberg & Lorenzo (L.C.G.) Pozzi, 2018. "Consumption and wealth in the long run: an integrated unobserved component approach," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-046/VI, Tinbergen Institute, revised 13 Sep 2018.
    93. Charemza, Wojciech & Díaz, Carlos & Makarova, Svetlana, 2019. "Quasi ex-ante inflation forecast uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 994-1007.
    94. Huber, Florian & Zörner, Thomas O., 2019. "Threshold cointegration in international exchange rates:A Bayesian approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 458-473.
    95. Todd E. Clark & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2012. "The macroeconomic forecasting performance of autoregressive models with alternative specifications of time-varying volatility," Working Paper 2012/09, Norges Bank.
    96. Jiawen Xu & Pierre Perron, 2023. "Forecasting in the presence of in-sample and out-of-sample breaks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(6), pages 3001-3035, June.
    97. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87.
    98. Dimitrios P. Louzis, 2019. "Steady‐state modeling and macroeconomic forecasting quality," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(2), pages 285-314, March.
    99. Macias, Paweł & Stelmasiak, Damian & Szafranek, Karol, 2023. "Nowcasting food inflation with a massive amount of online prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 809-826.
    100. Souhaib Ben Taieb & Raphael Huser & Rob J. Hyndman & Marc G. Genton, 2015. "Probabilistic time series forecasting with boosted additive models: an application to smart meter data," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 12/15, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    101. Tumala, Mohammed M & Olubusoye, Olusanya E & Yaaba, Baba N & Yaya, OlaOluwa S & Akanbi, Olawale B, 2017. "Forecasting Nigerian Inflation using Model Averaging methods: Modelling Frameworks to Central Banks," MPRA Paper 88754, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2018.
    102. Tavakolian , Hossein & Babaee , Majid & Shakeri , Abbas, 2018. "How Fluctuations in Macroeconomic Indicators Affect Inflation in Iran," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 13(3), pages 267-289, July.
    103. Bo Zhang, 2019. "Real‐time inflation forecast combination for time‐varying coefficient models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 175-191, April.
    104. Constandina Koki & Stefanos Leonardos & Georgios Piliouras, 2019. "A Peek into the Unobservable: Hidden States and Bayesian Inference for the Bitcoin and Ether Price Series," Papers 1909.10957, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
    105. Beckmann, Joscha & Schüssler, Rainer, 2016. "Forecasting exchange rates under parameter and model uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 267-288.
    106. Naser, Hanan, 2016. "Estimating and forecasting the real prices of crude oil: A data rich model using a dynamic model averaging (DMA) approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 75-87.
    107. Hanan Naser & Fatema Alaali, 2018. "Can oil prices help predict US stock market returns? Evidence using a dynamic model averaging (DMA) approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1757-1777, December.
    108. Wang, Yudong & Ma, Feng & Wei, Yu & Wu, Chongfeng, 2016. "Forecasting realized volatility in a changing world: A dynamic model averaging approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 136-149.
    109. Carlos Carvalho & Stefano Eusepi & Christian Grisse, 2012. "Policy initiatives in the global recession: what did forecasters expect?," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 18(Feb).
    110. Federico Bassetti & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2019. "Density Forecasting," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS59, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    111. Jordi Maas, 2014. "Forecasting inflation using time-varying Bayesian model averaging," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 68(3), pages 149-182, August.
    112. Nonejad, Nima, 2020. "Crude oil price volatility and equity return predictability: A comparative out-of-sample study," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    113. Lin, Boqiang & Su, Tong, 2021. "Do China's macro-financial factors determine the Shanghai crude oil futures market?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).

  20. Groen, Jan J J & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2008. "Investigating the structural stability of the Phillips curve relationship," Bank of England working papers 350, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. William, Barnett & Guo, Chen, 2015. "Bifurcation of macroeconometric models and robustness of dynamical inferences," MPRA Paper 63772, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Barnett, Alina & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2014. "Forecasting UK GDP growth and inflation under structural change. A comparison of models with time-varying parameters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 129-143.
    3. Jan J. J. Groen & Richard Paap & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2009. "Real-time inflation forecasting in a changing world," Staff Reports 388, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Ken Kuttner & Tim Robinson, 2008. "Understanding the Flattening Phillips Curve," Department of Economics Working Papers 2008-15, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    5. Gbaguidi, David Sedo, 2011. "Expectations Impact on the Effectiveness of the Inflation-Real Activity Trade-Off," MPRA Paper 35482, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Barrera-Chaupis, Carlos, 2014. "La relación entre los ciclos discretos en la inflación y el crecimiento: Perú 1993-2012 [The relationship between inflation's and growth's discrete cycles: Peru 1993-2012]," MPRA Paper 60959, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Miles, William & Vijverberg, Chu-Ping, 2011. "Formal targets, central bank independence and inflation dynamics in the UK: A Markov-Switching approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 644-655.
    8. Gbaguidi, David Sedo, 2011. "Regime Switching in a New Keynesian Phillips Curve with Non-zero Steady-state Inflation Rate," MPRA Paper 35481, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Adrian, Tobias & Etula, Erkko & Groen, Jan J.J., 2011. "Financial amplification of foreign exchange risk premia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 354-370, April.
    10. Colin Ellis & Haroon Mumtaz & Pawel Zabczyk, 2014. "What Lies Beneath? A Time‐varying FAVAR Model for the UK Transmission Mechanism," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(576), pages 668-699, May.
    11. Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz, 2011. "Evolving Macroeconomic Dynamics in a Small Open Economy: An Estimated Markov Switching DSGE Model for the UK," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(7), pages 1443-1474, October.
    12. Mumtaz, Haroon & Sunder-Plassmann, Laura, 2010. "Time-varying dynamics of the real exchange rate. A structural VAR analysis," Bank of England working papers 382, Bank of England.
    13. Barnett, William A. & Duzhak, Evgeniya A., 2014. "Structural Stability of the Generalized Taylor Rule," MPRA Paper 58737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Vugar Ahmadov & Salman Huseynov & Shaig Adigozalov & Fuad Mammadov & Vugar Rahimov, 2018. "Forecasting inflation in post-oil boom years: A case for regime switches?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(2), pages 369-385, April.
    15. Gbaguidi, David, 2012. "La courbe de Phillips : temps d’arbitrage et/ou arbitrage de temps," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 88(1), pages 87-119, mars.
    16. Groen, Jan J.J. & Kapetanios, George, 2016. "Revisiting useful approaches to data-rich macroeconomic forecasting," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 221-239.
    17. Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz, 2011. "Evolving Macroeconomic Dynamics in a Small Open Economy: An Estimated Markov Switching DSGE Model for the UK," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(7), pages 1443-1474, October.
    18. Vugar Ahmadov & Shaig Adigozalov & Salman Huseynov & Fuad Mammadov & Vugar Rahimov, 2016. "Forecasting inflation in post-oil boom years: A case for non-linear models?," Working Papers 1601, Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic.

  21. Jan J. J. Groen & George Kapetanios, 2008. "Revisiting useful approaches to data-rich macroeconomic forecasting," Staff Reports 327, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Cepni, Oguzhan & Clements, Michael P., 2024. "How local is the local inflation factor? Evidence from emerging European countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 160-183.
    2. Sandra Eickmeier & Tim Ng, 2009. "Forecasting national activity using lots of international predictors: an application to New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2009/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    3. Pesenti, Paolo & Groen, Jan J. J., 2010. "Commodity prices, commodity currencies, and global economic developments," CEPR Discussion Papers 7689, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Emmanuel C. Mamatzakis & Mike G. Tsionas, 2020. "Revealing forecaster's preferences: A Bayesian multivariate loss function approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 412-437, April.
    5. Hyeongwoo Kim & Kyunghwan Ko, 2019. "Improving Forecast Accuracy of Financial Vulnerability: PLS Factor Model Approach," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2019-03, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    6. Eric Hillebrand & Huiyu Huang & Tae-Hwy Lee & Canlin Li, 2018. "Using the Entire Yield Curve in Forecasting Output and Inflation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-27, August.
    7. Cubadda, Gianluca & Guardabascio, Barbara, 2012. "A medium-N approach to macroeconomic forecasting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1099-1105.
    8. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2016. "Theory And Practice Of Gvar Modelling," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 165-197, February.
    9. Rachidi Kotchoni & Maxime Leroux & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2019. "Macroeconomic Forecast Accuracy in data-rich environment," Post-Print hal-02435757, HAL.
    10. Exterkate, Peter & Groenen, Patrick J.F. & Heij, Christiaan & van Dijk, Dick, 2016. "Nonlinear forecasting with many predictors using kernel ridge regression," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 736-753.
    11. Oguzhan Cepni, Duc Khuong Nguyen, and Ahmet Sensoy, 2022. "News Media and Attention Spillover across Energy Markets: A Powerful Predictor of Crude Oil Futures Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
    12. Kai Carstensen & Steffen Henzel & Johannes Mayr & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "IFOCAST: Methoden der ifo-Kurzfristprognose," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(23), pages 15-28, December.
    13. Eickmeier, Sandra & Ng, Tim, 2011. "How do credit supply shocks propagate internationally? A GVAR approach," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,27, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    14. Hyeongwoo Kim & Kyunghwan Ko, 2017. "Improving Forecast Accuracy of Financial Vulnerability: Partial Least Squares Factor Model Approach," Working Papers 2017-14, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    15. Barbarino, Alessandro & Bura, Efstathia, 2024. "Forecasting Near-equivalence of Linear Dimension Reduction Methods in Large Panels of Macro-variables," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 1-18.
    16. Götz, Thomas B. & Knetsch, Thomas A., 2019. "Google data in bridge equation models for German GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 45-66.
    17. Mihnea Constantinescu, 2023. "Sparse Warcasting," Working Papers 01/2023, National Bank of Ukraine.
    18. Daniel Borup & Erik Christian Montes Schütte, 2019. "In search of a job: Forecasting employment growth using Google Trends," CREATES Research Papers 2019-13, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    19. Falk Brauning & Siem Jan Koopman, 2012. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables using Collapsed Dynamic Factor Analysis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-042/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    20. Duo Qin & Sophie van Huellen & Qing Chao Wang & Thanos Moraitis, 2022. "Algorithmic Modelling of Financial Conditions for Macro Predictive Purposes: Pilot Application to USA Data," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-22, April.
    21. Sarthak Behera & Hyeongwoo Kim, 2019. "Forecasting Dollar Real Exchange Rates and the Role of Real Activity Factors," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2019-04, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    22. Mayr, Johannes, 2010. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Aggregates," Munich Dissertations in Economics 11140, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    23. Gianluca Cubadda & Alain Hecq, 2011. "Testing for common autocorrelation in data‐rich environments," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(3), pages 325-335, April.
    24. Barbara Rossi, 2019. "Forecasting in the presence of instabilities: How do we know whether models predict well and how to improve them," Economics Working Papers 1711, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2021.
    25. Jan J. J. Groen & George Kapetanios, 2009. "Model selection criteria for factor-augmented regressions," Staff Reports 363, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    26. Hyeongwoo Kim & Jisoo Son, 2023. "Forecasting Net Charge-Off Rates of Large U.S. Bank Holding Companies using Macroeconomic Latent Factors," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2023-02, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    27. Scott A. Brave & R. Andrew Butters & David Kelley, 2019. "A New “Big Data” Index of U.S. Economic Activity," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue 1, pages 1-30.
    28. Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," PSE Working Papers halshs-02262202, HAL.
    29. Jan J. J. Groen & Michael Nattinger, 2020. "Alternative Indicators for Chinese Economic Activity Using Sparse PLS Regression," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 26(4), pages 39-68, October.
    30. Adrian, Tobias & Etula, Erkko & Groen, Jan J.J., 2011. "Financial amplification of foreign exchange risk premia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 354-370, April.
    31. Eraslan, Sercan & Nöller, Marvin, 2020. "Recession probabilities falling from the STARs," Discussion Papers 08/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    32. Gianluca Cubadda & Barbara Guardabascio, 2017. "Representation, Estimation and Forecasting of the Multivariate Index-Augmented Autoregressive Model," CEIS Research Paper 397, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 13 Jul 2018.
    33. Matteo Luciani, 2011. "Forecasting with Approximate Dynamic Factor Models: the Role of Non-Pervasive Shocks," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2011‐022, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    34. Julieta Fuentes & Pilar Poncela & Julio Rodríguez, 2015. "Sparse Partial Least Squares in Time Series for Macroeconomic Forecasting," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(4), pages 576-595, June.
    35. Pierre Guérin & Danilo Leiva-Leon & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2020. "Markov-Switching Three-Pass Regression Filter," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 285-302, April.
    36. Hutchinson, Mark C. & Kyziropoulos, Panagiotis E. & O'Brien, John & O'Reilly, Philip & Sharma, Tripti, 2022. "Are carry, momentum and value still there in currencies?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    37. Eddie Casey, 2019. "Inside the "Upside Down": Estimating Ireland's Output Gap," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 50(1), pages 5-34.
    38. Tom Boot & Didier Nibbering, 2016. "Forecasting Using Random Subspace Methods," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 16-073/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 11 Aug 2017.
    39. Joseph, Andreas & Potjagailo, Galina & Chakraborty, Chiranjit & Kapetanios, George, 2024. "Forecasting UK inflation bottom up," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 1521-1538.
    40. Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & I. Ethem Guney & M. Hasan Yilmaz, 2019. "Forecasting Local Currency Bond Risk Premia of Emerging Markets: The Role of Cross-Country Macro-Financial Linkages," Working Papers 201957, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    41. Dalibor Stevanovic & Rachidi Kotchoni & Maxime Leroux, 2017. "Forecasting economic activity in data-rich environment," CIRANO Working Papers 2017s-05, CIRANO.
    42. Dendramis, Y. & Tzavalis, E. & Varthalitis, P. & Athanasiou, E., 2020. "Predicting default risk under asymmetric binary link functions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1039-1056.
    43. Alexander Chudik & Valerie Grossman & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2014. "A multi-country approach to forecasting output growth using PMIs," Globalization Institute Working Papers 213, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    44. Eliana González, 2011. "Forecasting With Many Predictors. An Empirical Comparison," Borradores de Economia 7996, Banco de la Republica.
    45. Fuentes, Julieta & Poncela, Pilar & Rodríguez, Julio, 2014. "Selecting and combining experts from survey forecasts," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws140905, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    46. Cheng, Mingmian & Swanson, Norman R. & Yang, Xiye, 2021. "Forecasting volatility using double shrinkage methods," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 46-61.
    47. Alessandro Barbarino & Efstathia Bura, 2017. "A Unified Framework for Dimension Reduction in Forecasting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-004, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    48. Wang, Xiangning & Zhao, Xing, 2014. "The invoicing currency choice model of export enterprises assuming joint utility maximization and analysis of the factors influencing selection," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 38-42.
    49. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse: Band II," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 72.
    50. Erik Christian Montes Schütte, 2018. "In Search of a Job: Forecasting Employment Growth in the US using Google Trends," CREATES Research Papers 2018-25, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    51. Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou & Emmanouil Sofianos, 2022. "Forecasting unemployment in the euro area with machine learning," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(3), pages 551-566, April.
    52. Alessandro Barbarino & Efstathia Bura, 2015. "Forecasting with Sufficient Dimension Reductions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-74, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    53. Duo Qin & Qingchao Wang, 2016. "Predictive Macro-Impacts of PLS-based Financial Conditions Indices: An Application to the USA," Working Papers 201, Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK.
    54. Biing-Shen Kuo & Su-Ling Peng, 2011. "Price Pass-Through, Household Expenditure, and Industrial Structure: The Case of Taiwan," NBER Chapters, in: Commodity Prices and Markets, pages 237-255, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    55. Matthew Pritsker, 2017. "Choosing Stress Scenarios for Systemic Risk Through Dimension Reduction," Supervisory Research and Analysis Working Papers RPA 17-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

  22. Jan J J Groen & Ravi Balakrishnan, 2005. "Asset price based estimates of sterling exchange rate risk premia," Bank of England working papers 250, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Hassan Shareef & Santhakumar Shijin, 2016. "Expectations Hypothesis and Term Structure of Interest Rates: An Evidence from Emerging Market," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 23(2), pages 137-152, June.
    2. Angelo Ranaldo & Paul Söderlind, 2007. "Safe Haven Currencies," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2007 2007-22, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
    3. Luca Benati, 2006. "Affine term structure models for the foreign exchange risk premium," Bank of England working papers 291, Bank of England.
    4. Al-Shboul, Mohammad & Anwar, Sajid, 2014. "Time-varying exchange rate exposure and exchange rate risk pricing in the Canadian Equity Market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 451-463.
    5. Adrian, Tobias & Etula, Erkko & Groen, Jan J.J., 2011. "Financial amplification of foreign exchange risk premia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 354-370, April.
    6. Bartram, Sohnke M. & Bodnar, Gordon M., 2006. "Crossing the Lines: The Conditional Relation between Exchange Rate Exposure and Stock Returns in Emerging and Developed Markets," MPRA Paper 13064, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 02 Nov 2008.
    7. Nagayasu, Jun, 2010. "The Common Component in the Forward Premium: Evidence from the Asia-Pacific Region," MPRA Paper 24549, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan & Mr. Volodymyr Tulin, 2006. "U.S. Dollar Risk Premiums and Capital Flows," IMF Working Papers 2006/160, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Gábor Regős & Xibin Zhang, 2015. "Modeling the exchange rate using price levels and country risk," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1056928-105, December.
    10. Robert Kelm, 2010. "The Exchange Rate and Two Price Inflations in Poland in the Period 1999-2009. Do Globalization and Balassa-Samuelson Effect Matter?," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 2(4), pages 315-349, September.

  23. Jan J J Groen & Akito Matsumoto, 2004. "Real exchange rate persistence and systematic monetary policy behaviour," Bank of England working papers 231, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Nelson C. Mark, 2005. "Changing Monetary Policy Rules, Learning, and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 11061, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Matsumoto, Akito & Cova, Pietro & Pisani, Massimiliano & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2011. "News Shocks and Asset Price Volatility in General Equilibrium," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 3117, Inter-American Development Bank.
    3. Molodtsova, Tanya & Papell, David H., 2009. "Out-of-sample exchange rate predictability with Taylor rule fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 167-180, April.
    4. Enrique Martínez García & Jens Sondergaard, 2008. "The real exchange rate in sticky price models: does investment matter?," Globalization Institute Working Papers 17, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    5. Jón Steinsson, 2008. "The Dynamic Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate in Sticky Price Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 519-533, March.
    6. Morales-Arias, Leonardo & Moura, Guilherme V., 2013. "Adaptive forecasting of exchange rates with panel data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 493-509.
    7. Ida Wolden Bache, 2006. "Assessing the structural VAR approach to exchange rate pass-through," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 309, Society for Computational Economics.
    8. Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & Jaqueline Terra Moura Marins, 2014. "Risk Assessment of the Brazilian FX Rate," Working Papers Series 344, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    9. Charles Engel, 2017. "Real Exchange Rate Convergence: The Roles of Price Stickiness and Monetary Policy," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2017_011, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    10. Kamalyan, Hayk, 2023. "Real exchange rate dynamics in the New-Keynesian model," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 250-255.
    11. Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza & Marins, Jaqueline Terra Moura, 2017. "Evaluation of exchange rate point and density forecasts: An application to Brazil," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 707-728.
    12. Kamalyan, Hayk, 2020. "The Dynamic Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate in Sticky Price Models: A Reassessment," MPRA Paper 107491, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Pietro Cova & Mr. Alessandro Rebucci & Mr. Akito Matsumoto & Massimiliano Pisani, 2008. "New Shocks, Exchange Rates and Equity Prices," IMF Working Papers 2008/284, International Monetary Fund.
    14. José Valentim Machado Vicente & Jaqueline Terra Moura Marins & Wagner Piazza Gaglianone, 2021. "Impacts of the Monetary Policy Committee Decisions on the Foreign Exchange Rate in Brazil," Working Papers Series 552, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    15. Ida Wolden Bache, 2008. "Assessing estimates of the exchange rate pass-through," Working Paper 2007/12, Norges Bank.

  24. Jan J J Groen & Clare Lombardelli, 2004. "Real exchange rates and the relative prices of non-traded and traded goods: an empirical analysis," Bank of England working papers 223, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Jan J J Groen & Akito Matsumoto, 2004. "Real exchange rate persistence and systematic monetary policy behaviour," Bank of England working papers 231, Bank of England.
    2. Works, Richard Floyd, 2016. "Econometric modeling of exchange rate determinants by market classification: An empirical analysis of Japan and South Korea using the sticky-price monetary theory," MPRA Paper 76382, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Nicolas Cachanosky, 2014. "The Mises-Hayek business cycle theory, fiat currencies and open economies," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 27(3), pages 281-299, September.
    4. Marçal, Emerson Fernandes, 2013. "Exchange rate misalignments, interdependence, crises, and currency wars: an empirical assessment," Textos para discussão 348, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    5. John Beirne, 2012. "The long-run convergence of exchange rates and prices in the European Union," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 367-385, April.
    6. Ouyang, Alice Y. & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2013. "Real exchange rate fluctuations and the relative importance of nontradables," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 844-855.
    7. Marçal, Emerson Fernandes, 2014. "Desalinhamentos Cambiais, Interdependência, Crises, Guerras cambiais: Uma avaliação empírica," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 68(2), June.

  25. Jan J. J. Groen, 2000. "New Multi-Country Evidence on Purchasing Power Parity: Multi-Variate Unit Root Test Results," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0269, Econometric Society.

    Cited by:

    1. Hwa-Taek Lee & Gawon Yoon, 2013. "Does purchasing power parity hold sometimes? Regime switching in real exchange rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(16), pages 2279-2294, June.

  26. Jan J.J. Groen & Frank R. Kleibergen, 1999. "Likelihood-Based Cointegration Analysis in Panels of Vector Error Correction Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 99-055/4, Tinbergen Institute.

    Cited by:

    1. Joakim Westerlund & David L. Edgerton, 2008. "A Simple Test for Cointegration in Dependent Panels with Structural Breaks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(5), pages 665-704, October.
    2. Kaddour Hadri & Eiji Kurozumi & Yao Rao, 2014. "Novel Panel Cointegration Tests Emending for Cross-Section Dependence with N Fixed," Economics Working Papers 14-02, Queen's Management School, Queen's University Belfast.
    3. Christophe HURLIN & V. MIGNON, 2006. "Une synthèse des tests de co-intégration sur données de panel," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 1724, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    4. J. Isaac Miller, 2010. "A Nonlinear IV Likelihood-Based Rank Test for Multivariate Time Series and Long Panels," Working Papers 1001, Department of Economics, University of Missouri.
    5. Gabriel Bruneau & Kevin Moran, 2017. "Exchange rate fluctuations and labour market adjustments in Canadian manufacturing industries," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 50(1), pages 72-93, February.
    6. Alessandro Bellocchi & Edgar J. Sanchez Carrera & Giuseppe Travaglini, 2021. "What drives TFP long-run dynamics in five large European economies?," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(2), pages 569-595, July.
    7. Holly, Sean & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Yamagata, Takashi, 2010. "A spatio-temporal model of house prices in the USA," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 160-173, September.
    8. Bai, Jushan & Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluis, 2009. "Testing Panel Cointegration with Unobservable Dynamic Common Factors," MPRA Paper 35243, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Francesca Iorio & Stefano Fachin, 2014. "Savings and investments in the OECD: a panel cointegration study with a new bootstrap test," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 1271-1300, June.
    10. Seema Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2015. "The Financial Econometrics of Price Discovery and Predictability," Monash Economics Working Papers 06-15, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    11. Kandil, Magda & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Nasreen, Samia, 2013. "The Interaction between Globalization and Financial Development: New Evidence from Panel Co-integration and Causality Analysis," MPRA Paper 52148, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Dec 2013.
    12. Karaman Örsal, Deniz Dilan & Droge, Bernd, 2014. "Panel cointegration testing in the presence of a time trend," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 377-390.
    13. Alexei Onatski & Chen Wang, 2018. "Alternative Asymptotics for Cointegration Tests in Large VARs," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(4), pages 1465-1478, July.
    14. Laurent Cavenaile & Christian Gengenbach & Franz Palm, 2011. "Stock Markets, Banks and Long Run Economic Growth: A Panel Cointegration-Based Analysis," CREPP Working Papers 1102, Centre de Recherche en Economie Publique et de la Population (CREPP) (Research Center on Public and Population Economics) HEC-Management School, University of Liège.
    15. Carrion-i-Silvestre Josep Lluis & Surdeanu Laura, 2011. "Panel Cointegration Rank Testing with Cross-Section Dependence," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(4), pages 1-43, September.
    16. Michael Beenstock & Daniel Felsenstein, 2010. "Spatial error correction and cointegration in nonstationary panel data: regional house prices in Israel," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 189-206, June.
    17. Kamel HELALI & Mouna REKIK, 2014. "A re-estimation of the impact of the subprime crisis on the economic growth of some emerging countries: Vector-Error correction model," E3 Journal of Business Management and Economics., E3 Journals, vol. 5(3), pages 063-070.
    18. Brücker, Herbert & Fachin, Stefano & Venturini, Alessandra, 2011. "Do foreigners replace native immigrants? A panel cointegration analysis of internal migration in Italy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1078-1089, May.
    19. Erdal Özmen & Fatma Taşdemir, 2018. "Gross Capital Inflows And Outflows: Twins Or Distant Cousins?," ERC Working Papers 1807, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Apr 2018.
    20. Abdalrahman AbuDalu & Elsadig Musa Ahmed, 2013. "The long and short run forcing variables of purchasing power parity of ASEAN-5," E3 Journal of Business Management and Economics., E3 Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 066-081.
    21. Thomas H.W. Ziesemer, 2020. "Can we have growth when population is stagnant? Testing linear growth rate formulas of non-scale endogenous growth models," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(13), pages 1502-1516, March.
    22. Ziesemer, Thomas, 2019. "Can we have growth when population is stagnant? Testing linear growth rate formulas and their cross-unit cointegration of non-scale endogenous growth models," MERIT Working Papers 2019-021, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    23. Khan , M. Zakir Saadullah & Hossain, M. Ismail, 2012. "Determinants of Trade Balance of Bangladesh: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis," Bangladesh Development Studies, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), vol. 35(2), pages 45-65, June.
    24. Fernando Arias & David Delgado & Daniel Parra & Hernán Rincón-Castro, 2016. "Gross Capital Flows and their long-term Determinants for Developing Economies: A Panel Co-integration Approach," Borradores de Economia 932, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    25. Luis Eduardo Arango & Luis Fernando Melo, 2006. "Determinantes de la elección de administradora de pensiones: primeras estimaciones a partir de agregados," Borradores de Economia 383, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    26. Chen, Ping-Yu & Chen, Sheng-Tung & Hsu, Chia-Sheng & Chen, Chi-Chung, 2016. "Modeling the global relationships among economic growth, energy consumption and CO2 emissions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 420-431.
    27. Fantazzini, Dean, 2008. "Econometric Analysis of Financial Data in Risk Management (continuation). Section III: Managing Operational Risk," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 11(3), pages 87-122.
    28. Dina Azhgaliyeva, 2013. "What Makes Oil Revenue Funds Effective," International Conference on Energy, Regional Integration and Socio-economic Development 6023, EcoMod.
    29. Brücker, Herbert & Fachin, Stefano & Venturini, Alessandra, 2009. "Do Foreigners Replace Native Immigrants? Evidence from a Panel Cointegration Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 4438, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    30. Antonio Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2008. "What do we Really Know about Fiscal Sustainability in the EU? A Panel Data Diagnostic," Post-Print halshs-00363690, HAL.
    31. Alain Hecq & Franz Palm & Jean-Pierre Urbain, 2000. "Testing for Common Cyclical Features in Nonstationary Panel Data Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 248, CESifo.
    32. Cerra, Valerie & Saxena, Sweta Chaman, 2010. "The monetary model strikes back: Evidence from the world," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 184-196, July.
    33. Seyfettin Erdo an & Durmu a r Y ld r m & Ayfer Gedikli, 2019. "Investigation of Causality Analysis between Economic Growth and CO2 Emissions: The Case of BRICS T Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(6), pages 430-438.
    34. Michael McMahon & Gabriel Sterne & Jamie Thompson, 2005. "The role of ICT in the global investment cycle," Bank of England working papers 257, Bank of England.
    35. Thomas H. W. Ziesemer, 2024. "Public R&D and Growth: A dynamic Panel Vector-Error-Correction Model Analysis for 14 OECD Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-33, August.
    36. Muhammad Shahbaz & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Mantu Kumar Mahalik & Perry Sadorsky, 2018. "How strong is the causal relationship between globalization and energy consumption in developed economies? A country-specific time-series and panel analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(13), pages 1479-1494, March.
    37. Martin Wagner & Georg M ller-F rstenberger, 2004. "The Carbon Kuznets Curve: A Cloudy Picture Emitted by Bad Econometrics?," Diskussionsschriften dp0418, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    38. Arnold, Ivo J. M. & de Vries, Casper G., 2000. "Endogeneity in European money demand," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 587-609, November.
    39. David T. Coe & Elhanan Helpman & Alexander W. Hoffmaister, 2008. "International R&D Spillovers and Institutions," NBER Working Papers 14069, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    40. Jaap W. B. Bos & Bertrand Candelon & Claire Economidou, 2016. "Does knowledge spill over across borders and technology regimes?," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 63-82, August.
    41. Laurent Cavenaile & Danielle Sougn�, 2012. "Financial development and economic growth: an empirical investigation of the role of banks and institutional investors," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(20), pages 1719-1725, October.
    42. Jushan Bai & Josep Lluís Carrion‐i‐Silvestre, 2013. "Testing panel cointegration with unobservable dynamic common factors that are correlated with the regressors," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 16(2), pages 222-249, June.
    43. Ziesemer, Thomas, 2017. "Testing linear growth rate formulas of non-scale endogenous growth models," MERIT Working Papers 2017-036, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    44. Piotr Kębłowski, 2011. "The Behaviour of Exchange Rates in the Central European Countries and Credit Default Risk Premiums," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 3(4), pages 221-236, December.
    45. Gary Koop & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Rodney Strachan, 2007. "Bayesian Inference in a Cointegrating Panel Data Model," Working Paper series 02_07, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    46. Hasanov, Fakhri & Bulut, Cihan & Suleymanov, Elchin, 2017. "Review of energy-growth nexus: A panel analysis for ten Eurasian oil exporting countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 369-386.
    47. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Chiara Osbat, "undated". "Testing for PPP: Should We Use Panel Methods?," Working Papers 186, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    48. Antonia Arsova & Deniz Dilan Karaman Örsal, 2018. "Likelihood-based panel cointegration test in the presence of a linear time trend and cross-sectional dependence," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(10), pages 1033-1050, November.
    49. Di Iorio, Francesca & Fachin, Stefano, 2008. "A note on the estimation of long-run relationships in dependent cointegrated panels," MPRA Paper 12053, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    50. Westerlund, Joakim & Basher, Syed A., 2007. "Mixed Signals Among Tests for Panel Cointegration," MPRA Paper 3261, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    51. Sima M. Fortsch & Jeong Hoon Choi & Elena A. Khapalova, 2022. "Competition can help predict sales," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(2), pages 331-344, March.
    52. Peter Pedroni & Tim Vogelsang, 2005. "Robust Unit Root and Cointegration Rank Tests for Panels and Large Systems," Department of Economics Working Papers 2005-04, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    53. Sean Holly & Mehdi Raissi, 2009. "The Macroeconomic Effects of European Financial Development: A Heterogenous Panel Analysis," Working Paper / FINESS 1.4, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    54. Wagner, Martin & Hlouskova, Jaroslava, 2007. "The Performance of Panel Cointegration Methods. Results from a Large Scale Simulation Study," Economics Series 210, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    55. Anwar, Ahsan & Sinha, Avik & Sharif, Arshian & Siddique, Muhammad & Irshad, Shoaib & Anwar, Waseem & Malik, Summaira, 2021. "The nexus between urbanization, renewable energy consumption, financial development, and CO2 emissions: evidence from selected Asian countries," MPRA Paper 109613, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2021.
    56. Tor Jacobson & Johan Lyhagen & Rolf Larsson & Marianne Nessén, 2002. "Inflation, Exchange Rates and PPP in a Multivariate Panel Cointegration Model," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 D4-2, International Conferences on Panel Data.
    57. Breitung, J. & Pesaran, M.H., 2005. "Unit Roots and Cointegration in Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0535, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    58. Nizar Harrathi & Ahmed Almohaimeed, 2022. "Determinants of Carbon Dioxide Emissions: New Empirical Evidence from MENA Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(1), pages 469-482.
    59. Alain Hecq & Franz Palm & Jean-Pierre Urbain, 2002. "Separation, Weak Exogeneity, And P-T Decomposition In Cointegrated Var Systems With Common Features," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 273-307.
    60. Marçal, Emerson Fernandes, 2013. "Exchange rate misalignments, interdependence, crises, and currency wars: an empirical assessment," Textos para discussão 348, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    61. Uwe Hassler & Mehdi Hosseinkouchack, 2016. "Panel Cointegration Testing in the Presence of Linear Time Trends," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-16, November.
    62. Di Iorio, Francesca & Fachin, Stefano, 2010. "A Panel Cointegration study of the long-run relationship between Savings and Investments in the OECD economies, 1970-2007," MPRA Paper 25873, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    63. Olarewaju Odunayo Magret & Migiro Stephen Oseko & Sibanda Mabutho, 2018. "Dividend Payout, Retention Policy and Financial Performance in Commercial Banks: Any Causal Relationship?," Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Oeconomica, Sciendo, vol. 63(1), pages 37-62, April.
    64. Islem Gafsi & Yannick L’Horty & Ferhat Mihoubi, 2004. "Allègement du coût du travail et emploi peu qualifié : une réévaluation," Documents de recherche 04-03, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    65. In Choi, 2012. "Panel Cointegration," Working Papers 1208, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).
    66. Ahmed, Khalid & Rehman, Mujeeb Ur & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2017. "What drives carbon dioxide emissions in the long-run? Evidence from selected South Asian Countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 1142-1153.
    67. Fantazzini, Dean, 2008. "An Econometric Analysis of Financial Data in Risk Management," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 10(2), pages 91-137.
    68. Badi H. Baltagi & Chihwa Kao, 2000. "Nonstationary Panels, Cointegration in Panels and Dynamic Panels: A Survey," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 16, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
    69. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Nasreen, Samia & Ahmed, Khalid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2017. "Trade openness–carbon emissions nexus: The importance of turning points of trade openness for country panels," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 221-232.
    70. Alsagr, Naif & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2024. "How do energy security risk and ICT affect green investment?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1044-1055.
    71. Di Iorio, Francesca & Fachin, Stefano, 2012. "A note on the estimation of long-run relationships in panel equations with cross-section linkages," Economics Discussion Papers 2012-1, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    72. Luiz de Mello, 2007. "Local Government Finances: The Link between Intergovernmental Transfers and Net Worth," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 581, OECD Publishing.
    73. Jan J J Groen & Clare Lombardelli, 2004. "Real exchange rates and the relative prices of non-traded and traded goods: an empirical analysis," Bank of England working papers 223, Bank of England.
    74. NAPO, Fousséni, 2018. "Capital humain, productivité manufacturière et croissance économique dans les pays de l’UEMOA [Human capital, manufacturing productivity and economic growth in WAEMU countries]," MPRA Paper 89450, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Oct 2018.
    75. Heni Boubaker & Nadia Sghaier, 2014. "How Do the Interest Rate and the Inflation Rate Affect the Non-Life Insurance Premiums ?," Working Papers 2014-282, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    76. Krystyna Strzała, 2012. "Panelowe testy kointegracji – teoria i zastosowania," Collegium of Economic Analysis Annals, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, issue 27, pages 41-54.
    77. Omar Neme Castillo & Ana Lilia Valderrama Santibáñez & Humberto Ríos Bolívar, 2013. "Comercio internacional, IED, capital humano e ingreso per cápita en América Latina y el Caribe," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(1), pages 101-139, May.
    78. Angeliki N. Menegaki, 2019. "The ARDL Method in the Energy-Growth Nexus Field; Best Implementation Strategies," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-16, October.
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    81. Fraire, Francisco & Leatham, David J., 2006. "Decision Making Tool to Hedge Exchange Rate Risk," 2006 Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition, October 2-3, 2006, Washington, DC 133082, Regional Research Committee NC-1014: Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition.
    82. Marçal, Emerson Fernandes, 2014. "Desalinhamentos Cambiais, Interdependência, Crises, Guerras cambiais: Uma avaliação empírica," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 68(2), June.
    83. Chang, Yoosoon & Nguyen, Chi Mai, 2012. "Residual based tests for cointegration in dependent panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 167(2), pages 504-520.
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    86. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Syed, Jawad & Kumar, Mantu & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2017. "Does globalization worsen environmental quality in developed economies?," MPRA Paper 80055, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Jul 2017.
    87. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Topcu, Betül Altay & Sarıgül, Sevgi Sümerli & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "The effect of financial development on renewable energy demand: The case of developing countries," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 1370-1380.
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    89. Blazsek, Szabolcs, 2012. "Patents, secret innovations and firm's rate of return : differential effects of the innovation leader," UC3M Working papers. Economics we1202, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    90. Piotr Kębłowski, 2016. "Canonical Correlation Analysis in Panel Vector Error Correction Model. Performance Comparison," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 8(4), pages 203-217, December.

  27. Jan J.J. Groen, 1998. "The Monetary Exchange Rate Model as a Long-Run Phenomenon," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 98-082/2, Tinbergen Institute.

    Cited by:

    1. Bruce Morley, 2009. "A Comparison of Two Alternative Monetary Approaches to Exchange Rate Determination over the Long-Run," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 1(2), pages 63-76, April.
    2. Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente, 2009. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Footloose or Evolving Relationship?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 786-830, June.
    3. Balázs Égert & Carol S. Leonard, 2006. "The Dutch Disease in Kazakhstan: An Empirical Investigation," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 85-108.
    4. Joakim Westerlund & Syed A. Basher, 2007. "Can panel data really improve the predictability of the monetary exchange rate model?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(5), pages 365-383.
    5. Balázs Égert, 2012. "Dutch diease in the post-soviet countries of central and south-west Asia: How contagious is it?," Post-Print hal-01385841, HAL.
    6. Égert, Balázs & Leonard, Carol S., 2007. "Dutch desease scare in Kazakhstan: is it real?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 9/2007, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    7. Nelson C. Mark, 2005. "Changing Monetary Policy Rules, Learning, and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 11061, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Engel, Charles, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 453-522, Elsevier.
    9. Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1063-1119, December.
    10. Din 祲 Afat & Marta G -Puig & Sim osvilla-Rivero, 2015. "The failure of the monetary model of exchange rate determination," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(43), pages 4607-4629, September.
    11. Chin, Lee & Azali, M & Masih, Mansur, 2009. "Tests of the Different Variants of the Monetary Model in a Developing Economy: Malaysian Experience in the Pre- and Post-crisis Periods," MPRA Paper 122747, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Lee Chin & M. Azali, 2012. "Testing the validity of the monetary model for ASEAN with structural break," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(25), pages 3229-3236, September.
    13. Abhyankar, Abhay & Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2004. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on the Economic Value of Predictability," CEPR Discussion Papers 4365, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Raheem, Ibrahim, 2020. "Global financial cycles and exchange rate forecast: A factor analysis," MPRA Paper 105358, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Seema Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2015. "The Financial Econometrics of Price Discovery and Predictability," Monash Economics Working Papers 06-15, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    16. Byrne, Joseph P. & Korobilis, Dimitris & Ribeiro, Pinho J., 2014. "Exchange Rate Predictability in a Changing World," SIRE Discussion Papers 2014-021, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    17. Hauzenberger, Niko & Huber, Florian, 2018. "Model instability in predictive exchange rate regressions," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 276, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    18. Nelson Mark & Donggyu Sul, 1998. "Norminal Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: Evidence from a Small Post-Bretton Woods Panel," Working Papers 98-19, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
    19. Jan J.J. Groen, 1998. "The Monetary Exchange Rate Model as a Long-Run Phenomenon," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 98-082/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    20. Daniel Garces-Diaz, 2004. "How Does the Monetary Model of Exchange Rate Determination Look When It Really Works?," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 60, Econometric Society.
    21. William Barnett & Chang Ho Kwag, 2005. "Exchange Rate Determination from Monetary Fundamentals: an Aggregation Theoretic Approach," International Trade 0505004, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 24 Oct 2005.
    22. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Garcia Pascual, Antonio & Zhang, Yi, 2017. "Exchange rate prediction redux: new models, new data, new currencies," Working Paper Series 2018, European Central Bank.
    23. Carlo Altavilla & Paul De Grauwe, 2005. "Non-Linearities in the Relation between the Exchange Rate and its Fundamentals," CESifo Working Paper Series 1561, CESifo.
    24. Kari Heimonen, 2006. "Time-Varying Fundamentals of the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 385-407.
    25. Christopher J. Neely & Lucio Sarno, 2002. "How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Sep), pages 51-74.
    26. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David & Garcia Pascual, Antonio, 2003. "What Do We Know about Recent Exchange Rate Models? In-Sample Fit and Out-of-Sample Performance Evaluated," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt8ds2g7qg, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    27. Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals," NBER Working Papers 10723, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Nautz, Dieter & Ruth, Karsten, 2005. "Monetary disequilibria and the Euro/Dollar exchange rate," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,18, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    29. Levent, Korap, 2008. "Exchange rate determination of TL/US$: a co-integration approach," MPRA Paper 19659, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    30. Irfan Civcir, 2004. "The Long-Run Validity of the Monetary Exchange Rate Model for a High Inflation Country and Misalignment : The Case of Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 84-100, July.
    31. Sarthak Behera & Hyeongwoo Kim, 2019. "Forecasting Dollar Real Exchange Rates and the Role of Real Activity Factors," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2019-04, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    32. Cerra, Valerie & Saxena, Sweta Chaman, 2010. "The monetary model strikes back: Evidence from the world," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 184-196, July.
    33. Kim, Bong-Han & Min, Hong-Ghi & Moh, Young-Kyu, 2010. "Nonlinear dynamics in exchange rate deviations from the monetary fundamentals: An empirical study," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1167-1177, September.
    34. Simon Sosvilla-Rivero & Salvador Gil-Pareja, 2004. "Price convergence in the European Union," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 39-47.
    35. Stelios Bekiros, 2011. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Co-Movement, Long-Run Relationships and Short-run Dynamics," Economics Working Papers ECO2011/21, European University Institute.
    36. Szabo Andrea, 2015. "Testing Monetary Exchange Rate Models With Panel Cointegration Tests," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 643-651, July.
    37. Ron Alquist & Menzie D. Chinn, 2008. "Conventional and unconventional approaches to exchange rate modelling and assessment," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 2-13.
    38. Arnold, Ivo J. M. & de Vries, Casper G., 2000. "Endogeneity in European money demand," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 587-609, November.
    39. Hoda Selim, 2010. "Has Egypt’s Monetary Policy Changed after The Float?," Working Papers 543, Economic Research Forum, revised 09 Jan 2010.
    40. Works, Richard Floyd, 2016. "Econometric modeling of exchange rate determinants by market classification: An empirical analysis of Japan and South Korea using the sticky-price monetary theory," MPRA Paper 76382, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    41. Basher, Syed A. & Westerlund, Joakim, 2008. "Panel Cointegration and the Monetary Exchange Rate Model," MPRA Paper 10453, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    45. Jian Wang & Jason J. Wu, 2012. "The Taylor Rule and Forecast Intervals for Exchange Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(1), pages 103-144, February.
    46. Jesús Crespo‐Cuaresma & Jarko Fidrmuc & Ronald MacDonald, 2005. "The monetary approach to exchange rates in the CEECs," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 13(2), pages 395-416, April.
    47. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Antonio Garcia-Pascual, 2005. "Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?," Working Papers 122005, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
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    51. Jose Eduardo de A. Ferreira, 2006. "Effects of Fundamentals on the Exchange Rate: A Panel Analysis for a Sample of Industrialised and Emerging Economies," Studies in Economics 0603, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    52. Garcés Díaz, Daniel Guillermo, 2008. "Efectos de los cambios de la política monetaria en las dinámicas del tipo de cambio, el dinero y los precios en México (1945-2000)," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(299), pages 683-713, julio-sep.
    53. Nikolaos Giannellis & Minoas Koukouritakis, 2011. "Behavioural equilibrium exchange rate and total misalignment: evidence from the euro exchange rate," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 38(4), pages 555-578, November.
    54. Irfan Civcir, 2003. "The Monetary Models of the Turkish Lira/U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate: Long-run Relationships, Short-run Dynamics, and Forecasting," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(6), pages 43-63, January.
    55. Iregui, Ana María & Núñez, Héctor M. & Otero, Jesús, 2021. "Testing the efficiency of inflation and exchange rate forecast revisions in a changing economic environment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 290-314.
    56. Panagiotis Papaioannnou & Lucia Russo & George Papaioannou & Constantinos Siettos, 2013. "Can social microblogging be used to forecast intraday exchange rates?," Papers 1310.5306, arXiv.org.
    57. Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio & Wohar, Mark E, 2003. "Monetary Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Dynamics under Different Nominal Regimes," CEPR Discussion Papers 3983, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    58. Mogaji, Peter Kehinde, 2018. "Monetary Models Evaluation of Exchange Rate Determination in the Non-WAEMU Anglophone West Africa and Guinea," MPRA Paper 99346, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    59. Balazs Egert, 2009. "The Impact of Monetary and Commodity Fundamentals, Macro News and Central Bank Communication on the Exchange Rate: Evidence from South Africa," CESifo Working Paper Series 2612, CESifo.
    60. Ekong, Christopher N. & Onye, Kenneth U., 2013. "The Failure of the Monetary Exchange Rate Model for the Naira-Dollar," MPRA Paper 88238, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    61. Lasha Kavtaradze & Manouchehr Mokhtari, 2018. "Factor Models And Time†Varying Parameter Framework For Forecasting Exchange Rates And Inflation: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 302-334, April.
    62. Hunter, John & Menla Ali, Faek, 2014. "Money demand instability and real exchange rate persistence in the monetary model of USD–JPY exchange rate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 42-51.
    63. Jiahan Li & Ilias Tsiakas & Wei Wang, 2015. "Predicting Exchange Rates Out of Sample: Can Economic Fundamentals Beat the Random Walk?," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 293-341.
    64. Paul De Grauwe & Agnieszka Markiewicz, 2006. "Learning to Forecast the Exchange Rate: Two Competing Approaches," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 367, Society for Computational Economics.
    65. Dąbrowski, Marek A. & Papież, Monika & Śmiech, Sławomir, 2014. "Exchange rates and monetary fundamentals in CEE countries: Evidence from a panel approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 148-159.
    66. Yi‐Chiuan Wang & Jyh‐Lin Wu, 2015. "Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Prediction Revisited," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(8), pages 1651-1671, December.
    67. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Hu, Yu-Hau, 2009. "New evidence on nominal exchange rate predictability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1045-1063, October.
    68. Mauro Bambi & Sara Eugeni, 2021. "Nominal exchange rate determination and dynamics in an OLG framework," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 72(1), pages 93-132, July.
    69. Uz, Idil & Ketenci, Natalya, 2008. "Panel analysis of the monetary approach to exchange rates: Evidence from ten new EU members and Turkey," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 57-69, March.
    70. Xie, Zixiong & Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2019. "Exchange rates and fundamentals: A bootstrap panel data analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 209-224.
    71. Young Se Kim & Gwi Hwan Seol, 2016. "Monetary Policy Regime Shifts and Uncovered Interest Parity Revisited: The Euro–US Dollar Exchange Rate," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 360-378, July.
    72. Jan J. J. Groen, 2002. "Cointegration and the Monetary Exchange Rate Model Revisited," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(4), pages 361-380, September.
    73. Lin, Jeng-Bau & Liang, Chin-Chia & Yeh, Ming-Liang, 2011. "Examining nonlinear dynamics of exchange rates and forecasting performance based on the exchange rate parity of four Asian economies," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 79-85, March.
    74. Lee, Chin & Law, Chee-Hong, 2013. "The Effects of Trade Openness on Malaysian Exchange Rate," MPRA Paper 45185, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    75. Funashima, Yoshito, 2020. "Money stock versus monetary base in time–frequency exchange rate determination," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    76. Olofin, S.O. & Salisu, A.A & Tule, M.K, 2020. "Revised Small Macro-Econometric Model Of The Nigerian Economy," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 20(1), pages 97-116.
    77. Rebecca L Driver & Peter F Westaway, 2005. "Concepts of equilibrium exchange rates," Bank of England working papers 248, Bank of England.
    78. Lizardo, Radhamés A. & Mollick, André V., 2010. "Oil price fluctuations and U.S. dollar exchange rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 399-408, March.
    79. Gregory Bauer & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2012. "An International Dynamic Term Structure Model with Economic Restrictions and Unspanned Risks," Staff Working Papers 12-5, Bank of Canada.
    80. Sofiane Hicham Sekioua, 2003. "The Nominal Exchange Rate and Monetary Fundamentals: Evidence from Nonlinear Unit Root Tests," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(1), pages 1-13.
    81. Mauro Bambi & Sara Eugeni, 2018. "Exchange rates, sunspots and cycles," Department of Economics Working Papers 2018_05, Durham University, Department of Economics.
    82. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Jarko Fidrmuc & Maria Antoinette Silgoner, 2004. "Exchange Rate Developments and Fundamentals in Four EU Accession and Candidate Countries: Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania and Turkey," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 119-137.
    83. Ming-Yuan Leon Li, 2008. "Hybrid versus highbred: combined economic models with time-series analyses," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 637-647.
    84. Idil UZ & Mehrin DALAN, 2009. "MONETARY APPROACH TO EXCHANGE RATE DETERMINATION: The Case of Argentina, Brazil, Taiwan and Turkey, 1986-2006," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(2).
    85. Badi H. Baltagi & Chihwa Kao, 2000. "Nonstationary Panels, Cointegration in Panels and Dynamic Panels: A Survey," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 16, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
    86. Ekpeno L. Effiong, 2014. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and Monetary Fundamentals: A Cointegrated SVAR Approach for Nigeria," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 15(2), pages 205-221, June.
    87. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2002. "Testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination: new evidence from a century of data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 359-385, December.
    88. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Jarko Fidrmuc & Maria Silgoner, 2008. "Fundamentals, the exchange rate and prospects for the current and future EU enlargements: evidence from Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania and Turkey," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 195-211, April.
    89. Francis Vitek, 2005. "The Exchange Rate Forecasting Puzzle," International Finance 0509005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    90. Ibhagui, Oyakhilome W., 2019. "Does the long-run monetary model hold for Sub-Saharan Africa? A time series and panel-cointegration study," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 279-303.
    91. Wahab, M.I.M. & Mamun, S.M.H. & Ongkunaruk, P., 2011. "EOQ models for a coordinated two-level international supply chain considering imperfect items and environmental impact," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 151-158, November.
    92. Habimana, Olivier, 2017. "The multiscale relationship between exchange rates and fundamentals differentials: Empirical evidence from Scandinavia," MPRA Paper 75956, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    93. Panagiotis Papaioannou & Thomas Dionysopoulos & Dietmar Janetzko & Constantinos Siettos, 2016. "S&P500 Forecasting and Trading using Convolution Analysis of Major Asset Classes," Papers 1612.04370, arXiv.org.
    94. Levent, Korap, 2008. "A monetary model of TL/US$ exchange rate: a co-integrating approach," MPRA Paper 20389, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    95. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Saima Nawaz, 2018. "Does Pak-Rupee Exchange Rate Respond to Monetary Fundamentals? A Structural Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 57(2), pages 175-202.
    96. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2004. "Testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination: a closer look at panels," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 867-895, October.
    97. Panagiotis Papaioannou & Lucia Russo & George Papaioannou & Constantinos Siettos, 2013. "Can social microblogging be used to forecast intraday exchange rates?," Netnomics, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 47-68, November.

Articles

  1. Jan J. J. Groen & Michael Nattinger, 2020. "Alternative Indicators for Chinese Economic Activity Using Sparse PLS Regression," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 26(4), pages 39-68, October.

    Cited by:

    1. William Barcelona & Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Jasper Hoek & Eva Van Leemput, 2022. "What Happens in China Does Not Stay in China," International Finance Discussion Papers 1360, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

  2. Groen, Jan J.J. & Kapetanios, George, 2016. "Revisiting useful approaches to data-rich macroeconomic forecasting," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 221-239.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  3. Jan J. J. Groen & Richard Paap & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2013. "Real-Time Inflation Forecasting in a Changing World," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 29-44, January.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  4. Jan J. J. Groen & George Kapetanios, 2013. "Model Selection Criteria for Factor-Augmented Regressions-super-," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(1), pages 37-63, February.

    Cited by:

    1. Marine Carrasco & Barbara Rossi, 2016. "In-sample inference and forecasting in misspecified factor models," Economics Working Papers 1530, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    2. Jack Fosten, 2016. "Model selection with factors and variables," University of East Anglia School of Economics Working Paper Series 2016-07, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    3. Chen, Qitong & Hong, Yongmiao & Li, Haiqi, 2024. "Time-varying forecast combination for factor-augmented regressions with smooth structural changes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 240(1).
    4. Kaufmann, Daniel & Scheufele, Rolf, 2017. "Business tendency surveys and macroeconomic fluctuations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 878-893.
    5. Galbraith, John W. & Zinde-Walsh, Victoria, 2020. "Simple and reliable estimators of coefficients of interest in a model with high-dimensional confounding effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 218(2), pages 609-632.
    6. Tu, Yundong & Wang, Siwei, 2024. "Selection inconsistency for factor-augmented regressions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    7. Demetrescu, Matei & Hacioglu Hoke, Sinem, 2018. "Predictive regressions under asymmetric loss: factor augmentation and model selection," Bank of England working papers 723, Bank of England.
    8. Fornaro, Paolo, 2016. "Predicting Finnish economic activity using firm-level data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 10-19.
    9. Kapetanios, G & Price, SG & Young, G, 2017. "A UK financial conditions index using targeted data reduction: forecasting and structural identification," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 20328, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
    10. Carriero, Andrea & Galvão, Ana Beatriz & Kapetanios, George, 2019. "A comprehensive evaluation of macroeconomic forecasting methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1226-1239.
    11. Groen, Jan J.J. & Kapetanios, George, 2016. "Revisiting useful approaches to data-rich macroeconomic forecasting," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 221-239.
    12. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Stengos, Thanasis & Vravosinos, Orestis, 2019. "The effects of markets, uncertainty and search intensity on bitcoin returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 220-242.

  5. Jan J. J. Groen & George Kapetanios & Simon Price, 2013. "Multivariate Methods For Monitoring Structural Change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 250-274, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  6. Adrian, Tobias & Etula, Erkko & Groen, Jan J.J., 2011. "Financial amplification of foreign exchange risk premia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 354-370, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  7. Groen, Jan J.J. & Kapetanios, George & Price, Simon, 2009. "A real time evaluation of Bank of England forecasts of inflation and growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 74-80.

    Cited by:

    1. João Henrique Gonçalves Mazzeu & Esther Ruiz & Helena Veiga, 2018. "Uncertainty And Density Forecasts Of Arma Models: Comparison Of Asymptotic, Bayesian, And Bootstrap Procedures," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 388-419, April.
    2. Jacob T. Jones & Tara M. Sinclair & Herman O. Stekler, 2018. "A Textual Analysis of the Bank of England Growth Forecasts," Working Papers 2018-005, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting, revised May 2019.
    3. Zeyyad Mandalinci, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Markets: An Evaluation of Alternative Models," CReMFi Discussion Papers 3, CReMFi, School of Economics and Finance, QMUL.
    4. Knüppel, Malte & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, 2019. "Assessing the uncertainty in central banks’ inflation outlooks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1748-1769.
    5. Pablo M. Pincheira & Carlos A. Medel, 2016. "Forecasting with a Random Walk," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 66(6), pages 539-564, December.
    6. Jan J. J. Groen & George Kapetanios & Simon Price, 2013. "Multivariate Methods For Monitoring Structural Change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 250-274, March.
    7. Medel, Carlos A., 2017. "Forecasting Chilean Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Globalisation, Combination, and Accuracy," MPRA Paper 78439, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Giacomini, Raffaella, 2014. "Economic theory and forecasting: lessons from the literature," CEPR Discussion Papers 10201, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Medel, Carlos A., 2015. "Forecasting Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Compact-Scale Global VAR Approach," MPRA Paper 67081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Malte Knüppel & Guido Schultefrankenfeld, 2017. "Interest rate assumptions and predictive accuracy of central bank forecasts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 195-215, August.
    11. Pablo Pincheira, 2011. "A Bunch of Models, a Bunch of Nulls and Inference About Predictive Ability," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 607, Central Bank of Chile.
    12. Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Blessings Majoni, 2023. "Exact Likelihood for Inverse Gamma Stochastic Volatility Models," Working Paper series 23-11, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    13. Tara Sinclair & Herman O. Stekler & Warren Carrow, 2012. "Evaluating a Vector of the Fed's Forecasts," Working Papers 2012-3, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    14. Ana Beatriz Galvão & James Mitchell, 2019. "Measuring Data Uncertainty: An Application using the Bank of England's "Fan Charts" for Historical GDP Growth," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2019-08, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    15. Rusnák, Marek, 2016. "Nowcasting Czech GDP in real time," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 26-39.
    16. Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, H.O., 2013. "Examining the quality of early GDP component estimates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 736-750.
    17. Michael Cai & Marco Del Negro & Marc Giannoni & Abhi Gupta & Pearl Li & Erica Moszkowski, 2018. "DSGE forecasts of the lost recovery," Staff Reports 844, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    18. Andriantomanga, Zo, 2023. "The role of survey-based expectations in real-time forecasting of US inflation," MPRA Paper 119904, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Ana Beatriz Galvão & James Mitchell, 2023. "Real‐Time Perceptions of Historical GDP Data Uncertainty," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(3), pages 457-481, June.
    20. Pablo Pincheira & Carlos A. Medel, 2012. "Forecasting Inflation with a Simple and Accurate Benchmark: a Cross-Country Analysis," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 677, Central Bank of Chile.
    21. Söderström, Ulf & Iversen, Jens & LASEEN, PER & Lundvall, Henrik, 2016. "Real-Time Forecasting for Monetary Policy Analysis: The Case of Sveriges Riksbank," CEPR Discussion Papers 11203, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. Pablo Pincheira Brown & Álvaro García Marín, 2009. "Forecasting Inflation in Chile With an Accurate Benchmark," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 514, Central Bank of Chile.
    23. Papavangjeli, Meri & Rama, Arlind, 2018. "A statistical evaluation of GAP's forecasting performance for the Albanian economy," MPRA Paper 116104, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Mr. Jens R Clausen & Bianca Clausen, 2010. "Simulating Inflation Forecasting in Real-Time: How Useful Is a Simple Phillips Curve in Germany, the UK, and the US?," IMF Working Papers 2010/052, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Tara Sinclair & Herman O. Stekler & Warren Carnow, 2012. "A New Approach For Evaluating Economic Forecasts," Working Papers 2012-2, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    26. Anh Dinh Minh Nguyen, 2017. "U.K. Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 41, Bank of Lithuania.
    27. Julien Champagne & Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2018. "Evaluating the Bank of Canada Staff Economic Projections Using a New Database of Real-Time Data and Forecasts," Staff Working Papers 18-52, Bank of Canada.
    28. Pablo Pincheira, 2012. "A Joint Test of Superior Predictive Ability for Chilean Inflation Forecasts," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 15(3), pages 04-39, December.
    29. Kapetanios, G & Price, SG & Young, G, 2017. "A UK financial conditions index using targeted data reduction: forecasting and structural identification," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 20328, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
    30. Hans Christian Müller-Dröge & Tara M. Sinclair & Herman O. Stekler, 2014. "Evaluating Forecasts Of A Vector Of Variables: A German Forecasting Competition," Working Papers 2014-004, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    31. Matei Demetrescu & Christoph Hanck & Robinson Kruse, 2016. "Fixed-b Inference in the Presence of Time-Varying Volatility," CREATES Research Papers 2016-01, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    32. Raffaella Giacomini, 2014. "Economic theory and forecasting: lessons from the literature," CeMMAP working papers 41/14, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    33. Pablo Pincheira, 2010. "A Real Time Evaluation of the Central Bank of Chile GDP Growth Forecasts," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 556, Central Bank of Chile.
    34. Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "Forecasting Inflation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2-56, Elsevier.
    35. Kontogeorgos, Georgios & Lambrias, Kyriacos, 2019. "An analysis of the Eurosystem/ECB projections," Working Paper Series 2291, European Central Bank.
    36. Susan Sunila Sharma, 2019. "WHICH VARIABLES PREDICT INDONESIA’s INFLATION?," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 22(1), pages 87-102, April.
    37. Boero, Gianna & Smith, Jeremy & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2011. "Scoring rules and survey density forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 379-393, April.
    38. Pablo M. Pincheira & Carlos A. Medel, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation with a Simple and Accurate Benchmark: The Case of the US and a Set of Inflation Targeting Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 65(1), pages 2-29, January.
    39. Tara M. Sinclair & H.O. Stekler, 2011. "Differences in Early GDP Component Estimates Between Recession and Expansion," Working Papers 2011-05, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    40. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2022. "Evaluating the European Central Bank’s uncertainty forecasts," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 321-330.
    41. Pablo Pincheira & Carlos Medel, 2012. "Forecasting Inflation With a Random Walk," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 669, Central Bank of Chile.
    42. Hamid Baghestani & Cassia Marchon, 2015. "On the accuracy of private forecasts of inflation and growth in Brazil," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 39(2), pages 370-381, April.

  8. Groen, Jan J.J. & Balakrishnan, Ravi, 2006. "Asset price based estimates of sterling exchange rate risk premia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 71-92, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  9. Groen, Jan J J, 2005. "Exchange Rate Predictability and Monetary Fundamentals in a Small Multi-country Panel," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 495-516, June.

    Cited by:

    1. Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente, 2009. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Footloose or Evolving Relationship?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 786-830, June.
    2. Engel, Charles, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 453-522, Elsevier.
    3. Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1063-1119, December.
    4. Hsiu-Hsin Ko, 2016. "Exchange Rate Predictability in Finite Samples," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 361-378, September.
    5. Galimberti, Jaqueson K. & Moura, Marcelo L., 2013. "Taylor rules and exchange rate predictability in emerging economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1008-1031.
    6. Raheem, Ibrahim, 2020. "Global financial cycles and exchange rate forecast: A factor analysis," MPRA Paper 105358, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Seema Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2015. "The Financial Econometrics of Price Discovery and Predictability," Monash Economics Working Papers 06-15, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    8. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Wang, Yi-Chiuan, 2013. "Fundamentals, forecast combinations and nominal exchange-rate predictability," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 129-145.
    9. Marcelo Moura, 2010. "Testing the Taylor Model Predictability for Exchange Rates in Latin America," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 547-564, September.
    10. Nelson Mark, 2008. "Factor Model Forecasts of Exchange Rates," Working Papers 012, University of Notre Dame, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2012.
    11. Baltagi, Badi H., 2013. "Panel Data Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 995-1024, Elsevier.
    12. Hyun Song Shin & Erkko Etula & Tobias Adrian, 2010. "Risk Appetite and Exchange Rates," 2010 Meeting Papers 311, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy & Donggyu Sul & Nelson Mark & Jyh-Lin Wu, 2017. "Identifying Exchange Rate Common Factors," NBER Working Papers 23726, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Sarthak Behera & Hyeongwoo Kim, 2019. "Forecasting Dollar Real Exchange Rates and the Role of Real Activity Factors," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2019-04, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    15. Jair N. Ojeda-Joya, 2014. "A Consumption-Based Approach to Exchange Rate Predictability," Borradores de Economia 12339, Banco de la Republica.
    16. Khyati Kathuria & Nand Kumar, 2022. "Pandemic‐induced fear and government policy response as a measure of uncertainty in the foreign exchange market: Evidence from (a)symmetric wild bootstrap likelihood ratio test," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(4), pages 361-379, October.
    17. Daniel Andrés Jaimes Cárdenas & jair Ojeda Joya, 2010. "Reglas de Taylor y previsibilidad fuera de muestra de la tasa de cambio en Latinoamérica," Borradores de Economia 7308, Banco de la Republica.
    18. Baltagi, Badi H., 2006. "Forecasting with panel data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,25, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    19. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2016. "The implications of monetary expansion in China for the US dollar," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 71-84.
    20. Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy & Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul & Jyh-Lin Wu, 2012. "Exchange Rates as Exchange Rate Common Factors," Working Papers 212012, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    21. Charles Engel & Nelson C. Mark & Kenneth D. West, 2007. "Exchange Rate Models Are Not as Bad as You Think," NBER Working Papers 13318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Morales-Arias, Leonardo & Moura, Guilherme V., 2013. "Adaptive forecasting of exchange rates with panel data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 493-509.
    23. Jian Wang & Jason J. Wu, 2012. "The Taylor Rule and Forecast Intervals for Exchange Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(1), pages 103-144, February.
    24. Badi H. Baltagi, 2013. "Dynamic panel data models," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 10, pages 229-248, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    25. F. Pancotto & G. Pignataro & D. Raggi, 2014. "Higher order beliefs and the dynamics of exchange rates," Working Papers wp957, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    26. Rossi Junior, Jose Luiz & Felicio, Wilson Rafael de Oliveira, 2014. "Common Factors and the Exchange Rate: Results From the Brazilian Case," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 68(1), April.
    27. Ren, Yu & Liang, Xuanxuan & Wang, Qin, 2021. "Short-term exchange rate forecasting: A panel combination approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    28. Daniel Borup & Bent Jesper Christensen & Yunus Emre Ergemen, 2019. "Assessing predictive accuracy in panel data models with long-range dependence," CREATES Research Papers 2019-04, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    29. de Souza Vasconcelos, Camila & Hadad Júnior, Eli, 2023. "Forecasting exchange rate: A bibliometric and content analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 607-628.
    30. Hyeyoen Kim, 2011. "Large Data Sets, Nonlinearity and the Speed of Adjustment to Real Exchange Rate Shocks," Post-Print hal-00665456, HAL.
    31. Paul De Grauwe & Agnieszka Markiewicz, 2006. "Learning to Forecast the Exchange Rate: Two Competing Approaches," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 367, Society for Computational Economics.
    32. Fan, Haichao & Li, Yao Amber & Zhao, Chen Carol, 2018. "Margins of imports, forward-looking firms, and exchange rate movements," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 185-202.
    33. Yi‐Chiuan Wang & Jyh‐Lin Wu, 2015. "Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Prediction Revisited," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(8), pages 1651-1671, December.
    34. Norman C. Miller, 2014. "Exchange Rate Economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14981.
    35. José Luiz Rossi Júnior & Pedro Fontoura & Marina Rossi, 2023. "Are Global Factors Useful for Forecasting the Exchange Rate?," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 13(6), pages 1-14.
    36. Alexius, Annika & Post, Erik, 2006. "Cointegration and the stabilizing role of exchange rates," Working Paper Series 2006:8, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    37. Kenneth S. Rogoff & Vania Stavrakeva, 2008. "The Continuing Puzzle of Short Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 14071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    38. Kalok Chan & Yiuman Tse & Michael Williams, 2011. "The Relationship between Commodity Prices and Currency Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Futures Markets," NBER Chapters, in: Commodity Prices and Markets, pages 47-71, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    39. Pu, Xiaoling & Zhang, Jianing, 2012. "Can dual-currency sovereign CDS predict exchange rate returns?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 157-166.
    40. Menzie D. Chinn, 2010. "Comment on "Can Parameter Instability Explain the Meese-Rogoff Puzzle?"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009, pages 174-179, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    41. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric & Beutler, Toni, 2009. "Can Parameter Instability Explain the Meese-Rogoff Puzzle?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7383, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    42. Yiuman Tse, 2010. "The Relationship between Commodity Prices and Currency Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Futures Markets," Working Papers 0005, College of Business, University of Texas at San Antonio.
    43. Chang, Ming-Jen & Su, Che-Yi, 2014. "The dynamic relationship between exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals: Evidence from Pacific Rim countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 220-246.
    44. Daniel L. Thornton, 2007. "Resolving the unbiasedness and forward premium puzzles," Working Papers 2007-014, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    45. Felício, Wilson Rafael de Oliveira & Rossi, José Luiz J., 2012. "The Usefulness of factor models in forecasting the exchange rate: results from the Brazilian case," Insper Working Papers wpe_273, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    46. Chakraborty, Avik, 2009. "Learning, The Forward Premium Puzzle, And Market Efficiency," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(S1), pages 31-57, May.
    47. Yung, Julieta, 2021. "Can interest rate factors explain exchange rate fluctuations?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 34-56.
    48. Jan J J Groen & Clare Lombardelli, 2004. "Real exchange rates and the relative prices of non-traded and traded goods: an empirical analysis," Bank of England working papers 223, Bank of England.
    49. Fraire, Francisco & Leatham, David J., 2006. "Decision Making Tool to Hedge Exchange Rate Risk," 2006 Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition, October 2-3, 2006, Washington, DC 133082, Regional Research Committee NC-1014: Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition.
    50. Nelson Mark & Kimberly Berg, 2013. "Third-Country Effects on the Exchange Rate," 2013 Meeting Papers 1050, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    51. Felício, Wilson Rafael de Oliveira & Rossi, José Luiz Júnior, 2013. "Common factors and the exchange rate: results from the Brazilian case," Insper Working Papers wpe_318, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    52. Sajid Ali, 2016. "How does Interest rate effect Exchange rate of Pakistan. Evidence of ARDL Bound Testing Approach," Journal of Finance and Economics Research, Geist Science, Iqra University, Faculty of Business Administration, vol. 1(2), pages 119-133, October.
    53. Nautz, Dieter & Offermanns, Christian J., 2006. "Does the Euro follow the German Mark? Evidence from the monetary model of the exchange rate," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1279-1295, July.
    54. Prasad S Bhattacharya & Dimitrios D Thomakos, 2011. "Improving forecasting performance by window and model averaging," CAMA Working Papers 2011-05, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

  10. Jan Groen, 2004. "Corporate credit, stock price inflation and economic fluctuations," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(18), pages 1995-2006.

    Cited by:

    1. Nikolay Hristov & Oliver Hülsewig & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2011. "Loan Supply Shocks during the Financial Crisis: Evidence for the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 3395, CESifo.
    2. Serhat Yuksel & Mustafa Ozsari, 2016. "Impact of Consumer Loans on Inflation and Current Account Deficit: A Toda Yamamoto Causality Test for Turkey," World Journal of Applied Economics, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 2(2), pages 3-14, December.
    3. Par Osterholm, 2008. "A structural Bayesian VAR for model-based fan charts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(12), pages 1557-1569.
    4. Jefferson Martínez & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2020. "Macroeconomic Effects of Loan Supply Shocks: Empirical Evidence for Peru," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2020-483, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.

  11. Groen, Jan J J & Kleibergen, Frank, 2003. "Likelihood-Based Cointegration Analysis in Panels of Vector Error-Correction Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(2), pages 295-318, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  12. Jan J. J. Groen, 2002. "Cointegration and the Monetary Exchange Rate Model Revisited," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(4), pages 361-380, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Nelson C. Mark, 2005. "Changing Monetary Policy Rules, Learning, and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 11061, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Carlos Eduardo Castillo-Maldonado & Fidel Pérez-Macal, 2013. "Assessment of models to forecast exchange rates: The quetzal–U.S. dollar exchange rate," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 16, pages 71-99, May.
    3. Luis Eduardo Arango & Luis Fernando Melo, 2006. "Determinantes de la elección de administradora de pensiones: primeras estimaciones a partir de agregados," Borradores de Economia 383, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Nautz, Dieter & Ruth, Karsten, 2005. "Monetary disequilibria and the Euro/Dollar exchange rate," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,18, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Michael McMahon & Gabriel Sterne & Jamie Thompson, 2005. "The role of ICT in the global investment cycle," Bank of England working papers 257, Bank of England.
    6. Basher, Syed A. & Westerlund, Joakim, 2008. "Panel Cointegration and the Monetary Exchange Rate Model," MPRA Paper 10453, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Kühl, Michael, 2008. "Strong comovements of exchange rates: Theoretical and empirical cases when currencies become the same asset," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 76, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    8. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Frauke Dobnik, 2011. "Cross-Section Dependence and the Monetary Exchange Rate Model: A Panel Analysis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1119, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Dąbrowski, Marek A. & Papież, Monika & Śmiech, Sławomir, 2014. "Exchange rates and monetary fundamentals in CEE countries: Evidence from a panel approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 148-159.
    10. Uz, Idil & Ketenci, Natalya, 2008. "Panel analysis of the monetary approach to exchange rates: Evidence from ten new EU members and Turkey," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 57-69, March.
    11. Xie, Zixiong & Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2019. "Exchange rates and fundamentals: A bootstrap panel data analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 209-224.
    12. Funashima, Yoshito, 2020. "Money stock versus monetary base in time–frequency exchange rate determination," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    13. M. Faizul Islam & Mohammad S. Hasan, 2006. "The Monetary Model of the Dollar-Yen Exchange Rate Determination: A Cointegration Approach," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 5(2), pages 129-145, August.
    14. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Jarko Fidrmuc & Maria Antoinette Silgoner, 2004. "Exchange Rate Developments and Fundamentals in Four EU Accession and Candidate Countries: Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania and Turkey," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 119-137.
    15. Jan J J Groen & Clare Lombardelli, 2004. "Real exchange rates and the relative prices of non-traded and traded goods: an empirical analysis," Bank of England working papers 223, Bank of England.
    16. Nautz, Dieter & Offermanns, Christian J., 2006. "Does the Euro follow the German Mark? Evidence from the monetary model of the exchange rate," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1279-1295, July.

  13. Groen, Jan J. J., 2000. "The monetary exchange rate model as a long-run phenomenon," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 299-319, December.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  14. Jan J. J. Groen, 1999. "Long horizon predictability of exchange rates: Is it for real?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 451-469.

    Cited by:

    1. Kelly Burns & Imad Moosa, 2017. "Demystifying the Meese–Rogoff puzzle: structural breaks or measures of forecasting accuracy?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(48), pages 4897-4910, October.
    2. Joakim Westerlund & Syed A. Basher, 2007. "Can panel data really improve the predictability of the monetary exchange rate model?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(5), pages 365-383.
    3. Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1063-1119, December.
    4. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2001. "Evaluating long-horizon forecasts," Research Working Paper RWP 01-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    5. Hsiu-Hsin Ko, 2016. "Exchange Rate Predictability in Finite Samples," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 361-378, September.
    6. Ghosh, Taniya & Bhadury, Soumya, 2018. "Money's causal role in exchange rate: Do divisia monetary aggregates explain more?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 402-417.
    7. Carriero, A. & Kapetanios, G. & Marcellino, M., 2009. "Forecasting exchange rates with a large Bayesian VAR," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 400-417.
    8. Phornchanok Cumperayot, 2003. "Dusting off the Perception of Risk and Returns in FOREX Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 904, CESifo.
    9. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2015. "Nested forecast model comparisons: A new approach to testing equal accuracy," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(1), pages 160-177.
    10. Nelson Mark & Donggyu Sul, 1998. "Norminal Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: Evidence from a Small Post-Bretton Woods Panel," Working Papers 98-19, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
    11. Jan J.J. Groen, 1998. "The Monetary Exchange Rate Model as a Long-Run Phenomenon," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 98-082/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    12. Christopher J. Neely & Lucio Sarno, 2002. "How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Sep), pages 51-74.
    13. Feng, Wenjun & Zhang, Zhengjun, 2023. "Currency exchange rate predictability: The new power of Bitcoin prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    14. Groen, Jan J.J. & Balakrishnan, Ravi, 2006. "Asset price based estimates of sterling exchange rate risk premia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 71-92, February.
    15. Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy & Donggyu Sul & Nelson Mark & Jyh-Lin Wu, 2017. "Identifying Exchange Rate Common Factors," NBER Working Papers 23726, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H. & H. Wright, Jonathan, 2003. "Exchange rate forecasting: the errors we've really made," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 35-59, May.
    17. Mr. Guy M Meredith, 2003. "Medium-Term Exchange Rate Forecasting: What Can We Expect?," IMF Working Papers 2003/021, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Adawo, Monday A. & Effiong, Ekpeno L., 2013. "Monetary exchange rate model as a long-run phenomenon: evidence from Nigeria," MPRA Paper 46407, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Barrera, Carlos R., 2010. "Redes neuronales para predecir el tipo de cambio diario," Working Papers 2010-001, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    20. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2011. "The dollar-euro exchange rate and macroeconomic fundamentals: a time-varying coefficient approach," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(1), pages 11-40, April.
    21. Hsiu-Hsin Ko, 2016. "Exchange Rate Predictability in Finite Samples," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 67(3), pages 361-378, September.
    22. Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy & Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul & Jyh-Lin Wu, 2012. "Exchange Rates as Exchange Rate Common Factors," Working Papers 212012, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    23. Karaman Örsal, Deniz Dilan & Arsova, Antonia, 2017. "Meta-analytic cointegrating rank tests for dependent panels," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 2(C), pages 61-72.
    24. Elias, Christopher J., 2016. "A heterogeneous agent exchange rate model with speculators and non-speculators," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 203-223.
    25. Burns, Kelly & Moosa, Imad A., 2015. "Enhancing the forecasting power of exchange rate models by introducing nonlinearity: Does it work?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 27-39.
    26. Lasha Kavtaradze & Manouchehr Mokhtari, 2018. "Factor Models And Time†Varying Parameter Framework For Forecasting Exchange Rates And Inflation: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 302-334, April.
    27. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Frauke Dobnik, 2011. "Cross-Section Dependence and the Monetary Exchange Rate Model: A Panel Analysis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1119, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    28. Uz, Idil & Ketenci, Natalya, 2008. "Panel analysis of the monetary approach to exchange rates: Evidence from ten new EU members and Turkey," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 57-69, March.
    29. José Luiz Rossi Júnior & Pedro Fontoura & Marina Rossi, 2023. "Are Global Factors Useful for Forecasting the Exchange Rate?," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 13(6), pages 1-14.
    30. Yemba, Boniface P. & Otunuga, Olusegun Michael & Tang, Biyan & Biswas, Nabaneeta, 2023. "Nowcasting of the Short-run Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate with Economic Fundamentals and Time-varying Parameters," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    31. Chen Yu-Chin & Rogoff Kenneth, 2012. "Are The Commodity Currencies An Exception To The Rule?," Global Journal of Economics (GJE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(01), pages 1-28.
    32. Kim, Young Se, 2009. "Exchange rates and fundamentals under adaptive learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 843-863, April.
    33. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Reality checks and nested forecast model comparisons," Working Papers 2010-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    34. Ekpeno L. Effiong, 2014. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and Monetary Fundamentals: A Cointegrated SVAR Approach for Nigeria," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 15(2), pages 205-221, June.
    35. Jonathan H. Wright, 2003. "Bayesian Model Averaging and exchange rate forecasts," International Finance Discussion Papers 779, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    36. Jan J J Groen & Clare Lombardelli, 2004. "Real exchange rates and the relative prices of non-traded and traded goods: an empirical analysis," Bank of England working papers 223, Bank of England.

Chapters

  1. Jan J. J. Groen & Paolo A. Pesenti, 2011. "Commodity Prices, Commodity Currencies, and Global Economic Developments," NBER Chapters, in: Commodity Prices and Markets, pages 15-42, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    See citations under working paper version above.Sorry, no citations of chapters recorded.
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