IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ijb/journl/v5y2006i2p129-145.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Monetary Model of the Dollar-Yen Exchange Rate Determination: A Cointegration Approach

Author

Listed:
  • M. Faizul Islam

    (Department of Management Studies, Southeastern University, U.S.A.)

  • Mohammad S. Hasan

    (Faculty of Organisation and Management, Sheffield Hallam University, U.K.)

Abstract

This paper validates the monetary model in the determination of the dollar-yen exchange rate by applying cointegration methodology. Estimation results indicate a stationary relationship between the dollar-yen exchange rate and monetary models, with long-term causality flowing from monetary variables to the dollar-yen exchange rate. The forecasting performance of the monetary model based on the error-correction model outperforms random walk models.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Faizul Islam & Mohammad S. Hasan, 2006. "The Monetary Model of the Dollar-Yen Exchange Rate Determination: A Cointegration Approach," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 5(2), pages 129-145, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijb:journl:v:5:y:2006:i:2:p:129-145
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ijbe.fcu.edu.tw/assets/ijbe/past_issue/No.05-2/pdf/vol_5-2-3.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://ijbe.fcu.edu.tw/assets/ijbe/past_issue/No.05-2/abstract/03.html
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:bla:scandj:v:78:y:1976:i:2:p:200-224 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Baillie, Richard T. & Selover, David D., 1987. "Cointegration and models of exchange rate determination," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 43-51.
    3. Boughton, J.M., 1988. "The Monetary Approach To Exchange Rates What New Remains?," Princeton Studies in International Economics 171, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    4. Paruolo, Paolo, 1996. "On the determination of integration indices in I(2) systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 313-356.
    5. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    6. Ronald MacDonald & Mark P. Taylor (ed.), 1991. "Exchange Rate Economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, volume 0, number 569.
    7. David Backus, 1984. "Empirical Models of the Exchange Rate: Separating the Wheat from the Chaff," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 17(4), pages 824-846, November.
    8. Diamandis, Panayiotis F. & Georgoutsos, Dimitris A. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 1998. "The Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Long-Run Relationships, Identification and Temporal Stability," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 741-766, October.
    9. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
    10. Tatsuyoshi Miyakoshi, 2000. "The monetary approach to the exchange rate: empirical observations from Korea," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(12), pages 791-794.
    11. McNown, Robert & Wallace, Myles, 1989. "Co-integration tests for long run equilibrium in the monetary exchange rate model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 263-267, December.
    12. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
    13. Meese, Richard A, 1986. "Testing for Bubbles in Exchange Markets: A Case of Sparkling Rates?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(2), pages 345-373, April.
    14. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1979. "Monetary Policy Under Exchange Rate Flexibility," NBER Working Papers 0311, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Kearney, Colm & MacDonald, Ronald, 1990. "Rational Expectations, Bubbles and Monetary Models of the Exchange Rate: The Australian/U.S. Dollar Rate during the Recent Float," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(54), pages 1-20, June.
    16. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. (ed.), 1991. "Long-Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283393.
    17. Jan J. J. Groen, 2002. "Cointegration and the Monetary Exchange Rate Model Revisited," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(4), pages 361-380, September.
    18. Bill Francis & Iftekhar Hasan & James Lothian, 2001. "The monetary approach to exchange rates and the behaviour of the Canadian dollar over the long run," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(5), pages 475-481.
    19. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    20. MacDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P., 1994. "The monetary model of the exchange rate: long-run relationships, short-run dynamics and how to beat a random walk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 276-290, June.
    21. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1980. "Exchange Rate Economics: Where Do We Stand?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(1, Tenth ), pages 143-206.
    22. Luintel, Kul B. & Khan, Mosahid, 1999. "A quantitative reassessment of the finance-growth nexus: evidence from a multivariate VAR," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 381-405, December.
    23. Husted, Steven & MacDonald, Ronald, 1998. "Monetary-based models of the exchange rate: a panel perspective," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 1-19, January.
    24. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    25. Gregory, Allan W & Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 555-560, August.
    26. John F. O. Bilson & Richard C. Marston, 1984. "Exchange Rate Theory and Practice," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bils84-1.
    27. MacDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P., 1991. "The monetary approach to the exchange rate : Long-run relationships and coefficient restrictions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 179-185, October.
    28. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    29. Lutkepohl, Helmut, 1982. "Non-causality due to omitted variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2-3), pages 367-378, August.
    30. Ohno, Kenichi, 1989. "Testing purchasing power parity and the Dornbusch overshooting model with vector autoregression," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 209-226, June.
    31. repec:bla:obuest:v:64:y:2002:i:4:p:361-80 is not listed on IDEAS
    32. Boothe, Paul & Glassman, Debra, 1987. "Off the Mark: Lessons for Exchange Rate Modelling," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 39(3), pages 443-457, September.
    33. McNown, Robert & Wallace, Myles S, 1994. "Cointegration Tests of the Monetary Exchange Rate Model for Three High-Inflation Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(3), pages 396-411, August.
    34. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
    35. Choudhry, Taufiq & Lawler, Phillip, 1997. "The Monetary Model of Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Canadian Float of the 1950s," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 349-362, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xie, Zixiong & Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2019. "Exchange rates and fundamentals: A bootstrap panel data analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 209-224.
    2. Biswajit Maitra, 2010. "Money Supply and Exchange Rate Variations in Sri Lanka in the Independent Float Regime—A Time Domain Study," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 11(1), pages 111-129, March.
    3. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Saima Nawaz, 2018. "Does Pak-Rupee Exchange Rate Respond to Monetary Fundamentals? A Structural Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 57(2), pages 175-202.
    4. Khan, Muhammad Arshad & Qayyum, Abdul, 2007. "Exchange Rate Determination In Pakistan: Evidence Based On Purchasing Power Parity Theory," MPRA Paper 6754, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & M. Masih, A. Mansur & Azali, M., 2002. "The stock market and the ringgit exchange rate: a note," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 471-486, December.
    2. Cushman, David O. & Sang Sub Lee & Thorgeirsson, Thorsteinn, 1996. "Maximum likelihood estimation of cointegration in exchange rate models for seven inflationary OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 337-368, June.
    3. Roman Frydman & Michael D. Goldberg, 2001. "Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the DM/$ Exchange Rate: Temporal Instability and the Monetary Model," Working Papers 50, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    4. Adawo, Monday A. & Effiong, Ekpeno L., 2013. "Monetary exchange rate model as a long-run phenomenon: evidence from Nigeria," MPRA Paper 46407, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. W A Razzak & Thomas Grennes, 1998. "The long-run nominal exchange rate: specification and estimation issues," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G98/5, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    6. Ekong, Christopher N. & Onye, Kenneth U., 2013. "The Failure of the Monetary Exchange Rate Model for the Naira-Dollar," MPRA Paper 88238, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Diamandis, Panayiotis F. & Georgoutsos, Dimitris A. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2000. "The monetary model in the presence of I(2) components: long-run relationships, short-run dynamics and forecasting of the Greek drachma," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 917-941, December.
    8. Panayiotis Diamantis & Dimitris Georgoutsos & George Kouretas, 2001. "The Monetary Approach in the Presence of I(2) Components: A Cointegration Analysis of the Official and Black Market for Foreign Currency in Latin America," Working Papers 0108, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    9. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:50:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Diamandis, Panayiotis F. & Georgoutsos, Dimitris A. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 1998. "The Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Long-Run Relationships, Identification and Temporal Stability," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 741-766, October.
    11. Wu, Yih-Jiuan, 1998. "Exchange rate forecasting: an application of radial basis function neural networks," ISU General Staff Papers 1998010108000013540, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    12. Chrystal, K. Alec & MacDonald, Ronald, 1995. "Exchange rates, financial innovation and divisia money: the sterling/dollar rate 1972-1990," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 493-513, August.
    13. Dibooglu, Selahattin, 1993. "Multiple cointegration and structural models: applications to exchange rate determination," ISU General Staff Papers 1993010108000011419, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    14. Levent KORAP, 2008. "Exchange Rate Determination Of Tl/Us$:A Co-Integration Approach," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 7(1), pages 24-50, May.
    15. Irfan Civcir, 2003. "The Monetary Models of the Turkish Lira/U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate: Long-run Relationships, Short-run Dynamics, and Forecasting," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(6), pages 43-63, January.
    16. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2004. "Testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination: a closer look at panels," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 867-895, October.
    17. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2002. "Testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination: new evidence from a century of data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 359-385, December.
    18. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Masih, A. Mansur M., 2005. "Current account, exchange rate dynamics and the predictability: the experience of Malaysia and Singapore," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 255-270, July.
    19. Ekpeno L. Effiong, 2014. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and Monetary Fundamentals: A Cointegrated SVAR Approach for Nigeria," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 15(2), pages 205-221, June.
    20. George Tawadros, 2001. "The predictive power of the monetary model of exchange rate determination," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 279-286.
    21. Sylviane GUILLAUMONT JEANNENEY & Emmanuelle ROUMEGOUS, 2003. "Exchange Rate Dynamics with Currency Substitution: the Case of Ghana, Paraguay and Uruguay," Working Papers 200302, CERDI.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    cointegration; error-correction model; exchange rate; monetary model; random walk model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ijb:journl:v:5:y:2006:i:2:p:129-145. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Szu-Hsien Ho (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cbfcutw.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.