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Exchange rate prediction redux: new models, new data, new currencies

Author

Listed:
  • Cheung, Yin-Wong
  • Chinn, Menzie D.
  • Garcia Pascual, Antonio
  • Zhang, Yi

Abstract

Previous assessments of nominal exchange rate determination, following Meese and Rogoff (1983) have focused upon a narrow set of models. Cheung et al. (2005) augmented the usual suspects with productivity based models, and "behavioral equilibrium exchange rate" models, and assessed performance at horizons of up to 5 years. In this paper, we further expand the set of models to include Taylor rule fundamentals, yield curve factors, and incorporate shadow rates and risk and liquidity factors. The performance of these models is compared against the random walk benchmark. The models are estimated in error correction and first-difference specifications. We examine model performance at various forecast horizons (1 quarter, 4 quarters, 20 quarters) using differing metrics (mean squared error, direction of change), as well as the JEL Classification: F31, F47

Suggested Citation

  • Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Garcia Pascual, Antonio & Zhang, Yi, 2017. "Exchange rate prediction redux: new models, new data, new currencies," Working Paper Series 2018, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20172018
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model; exchange rates; forecasting performance; interest rate parity; monetary model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

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