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Analysing euro area inflation outlook with the Phillips curve

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  • Oinonen, Sami
  • Vilmi, Lauri

Abstract

This paper presents the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) -based framework for analysing euro area inflation outlook. Our NKPC specification, that relies on market- and survey-based inflation expectations, explains well euro area inflation dynamics. Its forecasting performance is also comparable to the performance of the ECB's official forecasts in both short- and long-horizons. Overall, the NKPC is a useful tool for monitoring euro area inflation outlook. Thanks to its fast and light updating procedure it provides almost real-time information on inflation outlook.

Suggested Citation

  • Oinonen, Sami & Vilmi, Lauri, 2021. "Analysing euro area inflation outlook with the Phillips curve," BoF Economics Review 5/2021, Bank of Finland.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofecr:52021
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anttonen, Jetro & Laine, Olli-Matti, 2024. "Forecasting inflation: A comparison of the ECB's short-term inflation projections and inflation-linked swaps," BoF Economics Review 8/2024, Bank of Finland.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    euro area; inflation expectations; inflation forecasting; Phillips curve;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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