IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ecb/ecbrbu/20240117.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Shocked to the core: a new model to understand euro area inflation

Author

Listed:
  • Bańbura, Marta
  • Bobeica, Elena
  • Martínez Hernández, Catalina

Abstract

The pandemic's disruption of global supply chains and the spike in natural gas prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine were significant drivers of surging inflation. Traditional inflation models often ignore such supply-side shocks, even though they can have a significant and persistent impact on core inflation in the euro area (as measured by rates of change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices excluding the energy and food components). In response, we propose a new model that takes these and other factors into account, particularly as future inflation dynamics could be shaped by the impact of geopolitical tensions on supply chains and the role of gas in the green transition. JEL Classification: E31, C32, C38

Suggested Citation

  • Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena & Martínez Hernández, Catalina, 2024. "Shocked to the core: a new model to understand euro area inflation," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 117.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbrbu:2024:0117:
    Note: 810771
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//press/research-publications/resbull/2024/html/ecb.rb240319~ea06781467.en.html
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//press/research-publications/resbull/2024/html/ecb.rb240319~ea06781467.en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carrière-Swallow, Yan & Deb, Pragyan & Furceri, Davide & Jiménez, Daniel & Ostry, Jonathan D., 2023. "Shipping costs and inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    2. Korobilis, Dimitris, 2022. "A new algorithm for structural restrictions in Bayesian vector autoregressions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    3. Gianluca Benigno & Julian di Giovanni & Jan J. J. Groen & Adam I. Noble, 2022. "The GSCPI: A New Barometer of Global Supply Chain Pressures," Staff Reports 1017, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena & Martínez Hernández, Catalina, 2023. "What drives core inflation? The role of supply shocks," Working Paper Series 2875, European Central Bank.
    2. Omid Asadollah & Linda Schwartz Carmy & Md. Rezwanul Hoque & Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2024. "Geopolitical risk, supply chains, and global inflation," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(8), pages 3450-3486, August.
    3. Anderl, Christina & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria, 2024. "Shipping cost uncertainty, endogenous regime switching and the global drivers of inflation," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    4. Szafranek, Karol & Szafrański, Grzegorz & Leszczyńska-Paczesna, Agnieszka, 2024. "Inflation returns. Revisiting the role of external and domestic shocks with Bayesian structural VAR," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 789-810.
    5. Ascari, Guido & Bonam, Dennis & Smadu, Andra, 2024. "Global supply chain pressures, inflation, and implications for monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    6. Hernández, Juan R. & Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel & Valencia, J. Eduardo, 2024. "Global supply chain inflationary pressures and monetary policy in Mexico," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    7. Juan R. Hernández & Mateo Hoyos & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària, 2024. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets under Global Uncertainty," Working Papers DTE 634, CIDE, División de Economía.
    8. repec:ocp:rpcoen:pb_18-22 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Almut Balleer & Marvin Noeller, 2023. "Monetary Policy in the Presence of Supply Constraints: Evidence from German Firm-Level Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 10261, CESifo.
    10. Viral V. Acharya & Matteo Crosignani & Tim Eisert & Christian Eufinger, 2023. "How Do Supply Shocks to Inflation Generalize? Evidence from the Pandemic Era in Europe," NBER Working Papers 31790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Nöller, Marvin & Balleer, Almut, 2023. "Monetary Policy in the Presence of Supply Constraints: Evidence from German Firm-level Data," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277638, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. Carrière-Swallow, Yan & Firat, Melih & Furceri, Davide & Jiménez, Daniel, 2023. "State-Dependent Exchange Rate Pass-Through," Working papers 106, Red Investigadores de Economía.
    13. Raza, Hamid & Laurentjoye, Thibault & Byrialsen, Mikael Randrup & Valdecantos, Sebastian, 2023. "Inflation and the role of macroeconomic policies: A model for the case of Denmark," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 32-43.
    14. Dudda, Tom L. & Klein, Tony & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Walther, Thomas, 2022. "Common Drivers of Commodity Futures?," QBS Working Paper Series 2022/05, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.
    15. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2024. "A Global Oil Market Model with Shipping Costs," CESifo Working Paper Series 11551, CESifo.
    16. Serdar Kabaca & Kerem Tuzcuoglu, 2023. "Supply Drivers of US Inflation Since the COVID-19 Pandemic," Staff Working Papers 23-19, Bank of Canada.
    17. Cavallo, Alberto & Kryvtsov, Oleksiy, 2023. "What can stockouts tell us about inflation? Evidence from online micro data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    18. Julian di Giovanni & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Alvaro Silva & Muhammed A. Yildirim, 2022. "Global Supply Chain Pressures, International Trade, and Inflation," NBER Working Papers 30240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Luca Gambetti & Dimitris Korobilis & John D. Tsoukalas & Francesco Zanetti, 2023. "Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty," Working Paper series 23-01, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    20. Xiwen Bai & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Yiliang Li & Francesco Zanetti, 2024. "The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory," Economics Series Working Papers 1033, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    21. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L., 2024. "Uncertainty Shocks and Inflation: The Role of Credibility and Expectation Anchoring," MPRA Paper 119971, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian VAR; Gas price shocks; Inflation; Supply-side shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbrbu:2024:0117:. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.