IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/hal-03954545.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Soft or strong: the art of monetary tightening

Author

Listed:
  • Christophe Blot

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Jérôme Creel

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

The rise of inflation has sparked tightening measures by the ECB. The paper discusses the causes of this rise and the factors that impinge on the effectiveness of ECB policy at curbing inflation. Drawing on own assessment of the respective trends in these factors, we recommend a careful approach to monetary policy. This paper was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with the ECB President on 26 September 2022.

Suggested Citation

  • Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel, 2023. "Soft or strong: the art of monetary tightening," Working Papers hal-03954545, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03954545
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03954545
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03954545/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Degasperi,Riccardo & Hong, Seokki Simon & Ricco, Giovanni, 2020. "The Global Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1257, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    2. Marco Di Maggio & Amir Kermani & Kaveh Majlesi, 2020. "Stock Market Returns and Consumption," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(6), pages 3175-3219, December.
    3. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Kumar, Saten & Pedemonte, Mathieu, 2020. "Inflation expectations as a policy tool?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    4. Belai Abbai & Ozge Akinci & Gianluca Benigno & Julian di Giovanni & Jan J. J. Groen & Ruth Cesar Heymann & Lawrence Lin & Adam I. Noble, 2022. "The Global Supply Side of Inflationary Pressures," Liberty Street Economics 20220128, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. Muh Yunus, S.Sos. M.Kes & , Rosdiana, 2022. "Sistem Penjaminan Mutu Internal (Spmi)," OSF Preprints vkmwr, Center for Open Science.
    6. Unknown, 2020. "Journal of Airport Management September Issue," Journal of Airport Management, Henry Stewart Publications, vol. 14(4), pages 433-434, September.
    7. Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Kara, A. Hakan & Kısacıkoğlu, Burçin & Lee, Sang Seok, 2021. "Monetary policy surprises and exchange rate behavior," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    8. Michael Ehrmann, 2015. "Targeting Inflation from Below: How Do Inflation Expectations Behave?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(4), pages 213-249, September.
    9. Erzo F.P. Luttmer, 2022. "Can Fiscal Externalities Be Internalized?," NBER Working Papers 30213, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Leogrande, Angelo & Magaletti, Nicola & Cosoli, Gabriele & Giardinelli, Vito O. M. & Massaro, Alessandro, 2022. "The Determinants of Internet User Skills in Europe," MPRA Paper 113123, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Ortega, Eva & Osbat, Chiara, 2020. "Exchange rate pass-through in the euro area and EU countries," Occasional Paper Series 241, European Central Bank.
    12. James C. R. Grove & Lindsay A. Gray & Naymalis Santa Medina & Nilla Sivakumar & Jamie S. Ahn & Timothy V. Corpuz & Joshua D. Berke & Anatol C. Kreitzer & Zachary A. Knight, 2022. "Dopamine subsystems that track internal states," Nature, Nature, vol. 608(7922), pages 374-380, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kodongo, Odongo, 2024. "Bank performance and real sector productivity in East Africa," KBA Centre for Research on Financial Markets and Policy Working Paper Series 77, Kenya Bankers Association (KBA).
    2. Michael Pedersen, 2020. "Surveying the survey: What can we learn about the effects of monetary policy on inflation expectations?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 889, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2021_010 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Santiago Camara, 2021. "Spillovers of US Interest Rates: Monetary Policy & Information Effects," Papers 2111.08631, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2023.
    5. Bems, Rudolfs & Caselli, Francesca & Grigoli, Francesco & Gruss, Bertrand, 2021. "Expectations' anchoring and inflation persistence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    6. Kose, M. Ayhan & Matsuoka, Hideaki & Panizza, Ugo & Vorisek, Dana, 2019. "Inflation Expectations: Review and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 13601, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Feldkircher, Martin & Siklos, Pierre L., 2019. "Global inflation dynamics and inflation expectations," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 217-241.
    8. Jarociński, Marek, 2022. "Central bank information effects and transatlantic spillovers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    9. Stanisławska, Ewa & Paloviita, Maritta, 2021. "Medium- vs. short-term consumer inflation expectations: Evidence from a new euro area survey," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2021, Bank of Finland.
    10. Choi, Sangyup & Furceri, Davide & Loungani, Prakash & Shim, Myungkyu, 2022. "Inflation anchoring and growth: The role of credit constraints," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    11. Tatsushi Okuda & Tomohiro Tsuruga, 2021. "Inflation Expectations and Central Bank Communication with Unknown Prior," IMES Discussion Paper Series 21-E-07, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    12. Pedersen, Michael, 2024. "The effect of monetary policy on inflation expectations: Evidence from a financial traders survey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    13. Stanisławska, Ewa & Paloviita, Maritta, 2021. "Responsiveness of consumers' medium-term inflation expectations : evidence from a new euro area survey," Research Discussion Papers 10/2021, Bank of Finland.
    14. Santiago Camara, 2021. "US Spillovers of US Monetary Policy: Information effects & Financial Flows," Papers 2108.01026, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    15. Karolina Tura-Gawron & Maria Siranova & Karol Fisikowski, 2018. "ARE CONSUMER INFLATION EXPECTATIONS AN INTERNATIONAL PHENOMENON? Results of spatial panel regressions models," GUT FME Working Paper Series A 50, Faculty of Management and Economics, Gdansk University of Technology.
    16. Coenen, Günter & Montes-Galdón, Carlos & Saint Guilhem, Arthur & Hutchinson, John & Motto, Roberto, 2022. "Rate forward guidance in an environment of large central bank balance sheets: a Eurosystem stock-taking assessment," Occasional Paper Series 290, European Central Bank.
    17. Karau, Sören, 2021. "Monetary policy and Bitcoin," Discussion Papers 41/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    18. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2024. "Central Bank Communication with the General Public: Promise or False Hope?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(2), pages 425-457, June.
    19. Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Kısacıkoğlu, Burçin & Lee, Sang Seok, 2022. "Exchange rate and inflation under weak monetary policy: Turkey verifies theory," CFS Working Paper Series 679, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    20. Nautz, Dieter & Strohsal, Till & Netšunajev, Aleksei, 2019. "The Anchoring Of Inflation Expectations In The Short And In The Long Run," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(5), pages 1959-1977, July.
    21. Hong, Claire Yurong & Lu, Xiaomeng & Pan, Jun, 2021. "FinTech adoption and household risk-taking," BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2021, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03954545. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.