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The great supply shock and the euro area, viewed through a suite of supply indices

Author

Listed:
  • Labhard, Vincent
  • Saliba, Maria Christine

Abstract

This paper examines the great supply shock following the pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine, using a novel suite of supply indices. The suite has indices for the euro area total economy, euro area industries, sectors and countries. The suite also computes the contributions to the indices from supply drivers at origin, in transport, or at destination. The results from the suite show that the supply shock has had wide-spread effects, and that their dynamics have been industry-, sector- and country-specific. Supply conditions have been tighter for longer in the euro area than other areas, in automobile than digital and food industries, in services relative to other sectors, and in some countries than others. The drivers at home appear to account for an increasing share of the specificity at the end of the sample, and a broader data set helps to better capture these drivers. The results also confirm that the supply indices in the suite lag supply shocks and lead variables susceptible to the effects of supply shocks. JEL Classification: C43, C82, E66, R32, R41

Suggested Citation

  • Labhard, Vincent & Saliba, Maria Christine, 2025. "The great supply shock and the euro area, viewed through a suite of supply indices," Working Paper Series 3015, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253015
    Note: 360650
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard Baldwin & Rebecca Freeman & Angelos Theodorakopoulos, 2023. "Hidden Exposure: Measuring US Supply Chain Reliance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 54(2 (Fall)), pages 79-167.
    2. Rebecca Freeman & Richard Baldwin, 2022. "Risks and Global Supply Chains: What We Know and What We Need to Know," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 153-180, August.
    3. Belai Abbai & Ozge Akinci & Gianluca Benigno & Julian di Giovanni & Jan J. J. Groen & Ruth Cesar Heymann & Lawrence Lin & Adam I. Noble, 2022. "The Global Supply Side of Inflationary Pressures," Liberty Street Economics 20220128, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Gianluca Benigno & Hunter L. Clark & William Cross-Bermingham & Ethan Nourbash, 2023. "How Have Swings in Demand Affected Global Supply Chain Pressures?," Liberty Street Economics 20230221, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. Mr. Tamim Bayoumi & Jelle Barkema & Mr. Diego A. Cerdeiro, 2019. "The Inflexible Structure of Global Supply Chains," IMF Working Papers 2019/193, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    euro area countries; industries; sectors; supply chains; supply conditions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • R32 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Other Spatial Production and Pricing Analysis
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

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