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Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Labour Market Adjustments in Canadian Manufacturing Industries

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  • Gabriel Bruneau
  • Kevin Moran

Abstract

We estimate the impact of exchange rate fluctuations and other external factors on hours worked and employment in Canada's manufacturing industries. The analysis is based on a dynamic model of labour demand and the econometric strategy employs a dynamic OLS approach for cointegrating regressions. Our data is drawn from a panel of 20 manufacturing industries, from Statistics Canada's KLEMS database, and covers a long sample that includes two full cycles of appreciation and depreciation in the value of the Canadian dollar. We find that exchange rate fluctuations have economically and statistically significant effects on the labour choices of Canada's manufacturing employers, and that these effects are stronger for industries more exposed to trade. In addition, we find that the enactment of NAFTA in 1994 has had a negative impact on labour in manufacturing industries. Finally, we report that employment reacts faster than total hours worked, suggesting that hours worked per employee react in a countercyclical fashion to exchange rate fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Bruneau & Kevin Moran, 2012. "Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Labour Market Adjustments in Canadian Manufacturing Industries," CIRANO Working Papers 2012s-19, CIRANO.
    • Handle: RePEc:cir:cirwor:2012s-19
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    Cited by:

    1. Gabriel Bruneau & Kevin Moran, 2017. "Exchange rate fluctuations and labour market adjustments in Canadian manufacturing industries," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(1), pages 72-93, February.
    2. Mr. Itai Agur, 2016. "Products and Provinces: A Disaggregated Panel Analysis of Canada’s Manufacturing Exports," IMF Working Papers 2016/193, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Stephen Chan & Jeffrey Chu & Saralees Nadarajah & Joerg Osterrieder, 2017. "A Statistical Analysis of Cryptocurrencies," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-23, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate fluctuations; manufacturing employment; panel data estimation; cointegrating regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • F - International Economics
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • J - Labor and Demographic Economics
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor

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