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The failure of the monetary model of exchange rate determination

Author

Listed:
  • Dinçer Afat

    (Department of Economic Theory - Universitat de Barcelona)

  • Marta Gómez-Puig

    (Department of Economic Theory - Universitat de Barcelona)

  • Simón Sosvilla-Rivero

    (Department of Quantitative Economics, Universidad Complutense de Madrid)

Abstract

In this paper, we test three popular versions of the monetary model (flexible price, forward-looking and real interest differential models) for the OECD member countries by applying Johansen cointegration technique. Based on country-by-country analysis, we conclude that monetary models do not provide the expected results. We reveal several shortcomings of the models and examine the building blocks of the fundamental version. Although researchers always blame the deviations from purchasing power parity as the reason for the failure of the monetary model, our analysis indicates that invalidity of Keynesian money demand function is also responsible for unfavourable results.

Suggested Citation

  • Dinçer Afat & Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2015. "The failure of the monetary model of exchange rate determination," Working Papers 15-05, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
    • Handle: RePEc:aee:wpaper:1505
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Dimitris A. Georgoutsos & Georgios P. Kouretas, 2017. "The Relevance of the Monetary Model for the Euro / USD Exchange Rate Determination: a Long Run Perspective," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(5), pages 989-1010, November.
    2. Habimana, Olivier, 2017. "The multiscale relationship between exchange rates and fundamentals differentials: Empirical evidence from Scandinavia," MPRA Paper 75956, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Mogaji, Peter Kehinde, 2018. "Monetary Models Evaluation of Exchange Rate Determination in the Non-WAEMU Anglophone West Africa and Guinea," MPRA Paper 99346, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate; flexible price monetary model; forward-looking monetary model; real interest differential model; money demand; purchasing power parity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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