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Aggregate consumption and wealth in the long run: The impact of financial liberalization

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  • Malin Gardberg
  • Lorenzo Pozzi

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of financial liberalization on the relationship between consumption and total wealth (i.e., the sum of asset wealth and human wealth). Financial liberalization is persistent and may signal changes in expected future consumption growth rates and/or in rates of return on wealth that, through the intertemporal budget constraint, affect the current consumption–wealth ratio. We estimate the long‐run relationship between consumption, total wealth, and financial liberalization by state space methods using quarterly US data. The results show that the trend in the consumption–wealth ratio is well‐captured by our baseline liberalization indicator. We find that the increase in this indicator over the sample period has increased the consumption–wealth ratio with about 10%. Investigating the responsible channel, additional estimates show that financial liberalization has predictive power for aggregate consumption growth rather than for returns, a result that supports an incomplete markets interpretation of the link between liberalization and the consumption–wealth ratio.

Suggested Citation

  • Malin Gardberg & Lorenzo Pozzi, 2022. "Aggregate consumption and wealth in the long run: The impact of financial liberalization," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 161-186, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:japmet:v:37:y:2022:i:1:p:161-186
    DOI: 10.1002/jae.2870
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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