IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2012-168.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Commodity Prices and Exchange Rate Volatility: Lessons from South Africa’s Capital Account Liberalization

Author

Listed:
  • Ms. Elena Dumitrescu
  • Mr. Rabah Arezki
  • Mr. Andreas Freytag
  • Mr. Marc G Quintyn

Abstract

We examine the relationship between South African Rand and gold price volatility using monthly data for the period 1980-2010. Our main findings is that prior to capital account liberalization the causality runs from South African Rand to gold price volatility but the causality runs the other way around for the post-liberalization period. These findings suggest that gold price volatility plays a key role in explaining both the excessive exchange rate volatility and current disproportionate share of speculative (short-run) inflows that South Africa has been coping with since the opening up of its capital account.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Elena Dumitrescu & Mr. Rabah Arezki & Mr. Andreas Freytag & Mr. Marc G Quintyn, 2012. "Commodity Prices and Exchange Rate Volatility: Lessons from South Africa’s Capital Account Liberalization," IMF Working Papers 2012/168, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2012/168
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=26026
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cashin, Paul & Cespedes, Luis F. & Sahay, Ratna, 2004. "Commodity currencies and the real exchange rate," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 239-268, October.
    2. Mr. Mustapha K. Nabli & Mr. Rabah Arezki, 2012. "Natural Resources, Volatility, and Inclusive Growth: Perspectives From the Middle East and North Africa," IMF Working Papers 2012/111, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Jan J. J. Groen & Paolo A. Pesenti, 2011. "Commodity Prices, Commodity Currencies, and Global Economic Developments," NBER Chapters, in: Commodity Prices and Markets, pages 15-42, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Bodart, V. & Candelon, B. & Carpantier, J.-F., 2012. "Real exchanges rates in commodity producing countries: A reappraisal," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1482-1502.
    5. James H Cross, 2003. "Global integration and capital account liberalisation in South Africa," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), China's capital account liberalisation: international perspective, volume 15, pages 104-116, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Faisal Ahmed & Rabah Arezki & Norbert Funke, 2007. "The composition of capital flows to South Africa," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 275-294.
    7. Peter Blair Henry, 2007. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 887-935, December.
    8. Yu-Chin Chen & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2010. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(3), pages 1145-1194.
    9. West, Kenneth D. & Cho, Dongchul, 1995. "The predictive ability of several models of exchange rate volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 367-391, October.
    10. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 2009. "The Economics of Growth," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262012634, December.
    11. Peter Henry, 2007. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation," Discussion Papers 07-004, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    12. Bodart, Vincent & Candelon, Bertrand & Carpantier, Jean-Francois, 2015. "Real exchanges rates, commodity prices and structural factors in developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 264-284.
    13. Aghion, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2005. "Volatility and Growth," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199248612, Decembrie.
    14. Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2003. "Commodity currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 133-160, May.
    15. Bui, Nhuong & Pippenger, John, 1990. "Commodity prices, exchange rates and their relative volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 3-20, March.
    16. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Rancière, Romain & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "Exchange rate volatility and productivity growth: The role of financial development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 494-513, May.
    17. Jeffrey Frankel, 2007. "On The Rand: Determinants Of The South African Exchange Rate," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(3), pages 425-441, September.
    18. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Scott W. Hegerty, 2007. "Exchange rate volatility and trade flows: a review article," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(3), pages 211-255, August.
    19. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    20. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    21. Peter Draper & Andreas Freytag & Sebastian Voll, 2011. "Global Financial Crisis, Protectionism and Current Account Deficit," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 12(2), pages 129-152, April.
    22. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-1151, December.
    23. Raddatz, Claudio, 2011. "Over the hedge : exchange rate volatility, commodity price correlations, and the structure of trade," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5590, The World Bank.
    24. Akram, Q. Farooq, 2009. "Commodity prices, interest rates and the dollar," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 838-851, November.
    25. Gilbert, Christopher L, 1989. "The Impact of Exchange Rates and Developing Country Debt on Commodity Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(397), pages 773-784, September.
    26. Smith, C. E., 1999. "Exchange rate variation, commodity price variation and the implications for international trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 471-491.
    27. John T. Cuddington & Hong Liang, 1998. "Commodity Price Volatility Across Exchange Rate Regimes," International Finance 9802003, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 May 1998.
    28. Mr. Michael Mussa & Mr. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Mr. Barry J. Eichengreen & Ms. Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theoretical and Practical Aspects," IMF Occasional Papers 1998/016, International Monetary Fund.
    29. Ito, Takatoshi & Rose, Andrew K. (ed.), 2011. "Commodity Prices and Markets," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226386898, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yip, Pick Schen & Brooks, Robert & Do, Hung Xuan, 2017. "Dynamic spillover between commodities and commodity currencies during United States Q.E," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 399-410.
    2. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L. & Arora, Vipin, 2020. "The relationship between oil prices and exchange rates: Revisiting theory and evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    3. Rodrigo da Silva Souza & Leonardo B. de Mattos & João E. de Lima, 2021. "Commodity prices and the Brazilian real exchange rate," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 3152-3172, April.
    4. Fuentes, Fernanda & Herrera, Rodrigo & Clements, Adam, 2018. "Modeling extreme risks in commodities and commodity currencies," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 108-120.
    5. Frederick van der Ploeg, 2011. "Natural Resources: Curse or Blessing?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(2), pages 366-420, June.
    6. Wang, Wenhao & Cheung, Yin-Wong, 2023. "Commodity price effects on currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    7. Dongwon Lee & Yu-chin Chen, 2014. "What Makes a Commodity Currency?," Working Papers 201420, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
    8. Michael Pedersen, 2019. "The impact of commodity price shocks in a copper-rich economy: the case of Chile," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1291-1318, October.
    9. Dina Azhgaliyeva, 2013. "What Makes Oil Revenue Funds Effective," International Conference on Energy, Regional Integration and Socio-economic Development 6023, EcoMod.
    10. Jean-François Carpantier, 2021. "Commodity Prices in Empirical Research," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Gilles Dufrénot & Takashi Matsuki (ed.), Recent Econometric Techniques for Macroeconomic and Financial Data, pages 199-227, Springer.
    11. Bodart, V. & Carpantier, J.-F., 2020. "Currency collapses and output dynamics in commodity dependent countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    12. Pincheira, Pablo & Hardy, Nicolás, 2021. "Forecasting aluminum prices with commodity currencies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    13. Chen, Yu-chin & Lee, Dongwon, 2018. "Market power, inflation targeting, and commodity currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 122-139.
    14. Blaise Gnimassoun & Marc Joëts & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2016. "On the link between current account and oil price fluctuations in diversified economies: The case of Canada," Working Papers hal-04141574, HAL.
    15. Kai Chen & Dongwon Lee, 2023. "Commodity currency reactions and the Dutch disease: the role of capital controls," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(5), pages 2065-2089, November.
    16. Jérôme Héricourt & Sandra Poncet, 2015. "Exchange Rate Volatility, Financial Constraints, and Trade: Empirical Evidence from Chinese Firms," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 29(3), pages 550-578.
    17. Rakesh Mohan & Muneesh Kapur, 2012. "Liberalization and Regulation of Capital Flows: Lessons for Emerging Market Economies," Chapters, in: Masahiro Kawai & David G. Mayes & Peter Morgan (ed.), Implications of the Global Financial Crisis for Financial Reform and Regulation in Asia, chapter 6, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Bermpei, Theodora & Ferrara, Laurent & Karadimitropoulou, Aikaterini & Triantafyllou, Athanasios, 2024. "Commodity currencies revisited: The role of global commodity price uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    19. Chen, Yu-chin & Turnovsky, Stephen J. & Zivot, Eric, 2014. "Forecasting inflation using commodity price aggregates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(1), pages 117-134.
    20. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Is there a homogeneous causality pattern between oil prices and currencies of oil importers and exporters?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 665-678.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; price; exchange rate; gold price volatility; commodity; Real exchange rate; volatility; commodities; financial flows; price volatility; exchange rate volatility; error correction term; UNCTAD commodity statistics; gold price data; export commodity price; Gold prices; Real exchange rates; Capital account liberalization; Real effective exchange rates; Commodity price fluctuations; Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • Q0 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2012/168. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.