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Risk Appetite and Exchange Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Hyun Song Shin

    (Princeton University)

  • Erkko Etula

    (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

  • Tobias Adrian

    (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

Abstract

We present evidence that the funding liquidity aggregates of U.S. financial intermediaries forecast exchange rate growth---at weekly, monthly, and quarterly horizons, both in-sample and out-of-sample, and for a large set of currencies. We estimate prices of risk using a cross-sectional asset pricing approach and show that U.S. dollar funding liquidity forecasts exchange rates because of its association with time-varying risk premia. We provide a theoretical foundation for a funding liquidity channel in an intertemporal equilibrium pricing model where the "risk appetite" of dollar-funded intermediaries fluctuates with the tightness of their balance sheet constraints. Our empirical evidence shows that this channel is separate from the more familiar "carry trade" channel.

Suggested Citation

  • Hyun Song Shin & Erkko Etula & Tobias Adrian, 2010. "Risk Appetite and Exchange Rates," 2010 Meeting Papers 311, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed010:311
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

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